Turkey Day Facts From Statista

STATISTA: FAMILY MATTERS 

For most Americans, Thanksgiving is all about the family. And after a long election campaign, one which divided the country and drove a wedge between many families, people are looking forward to putting politics aside and enjoying a good meal with their loved ones. After all, a recent YouGov survey found that Thanksgiving is America's second favorite holiday, trailing only Christmas in popularity.

According to data from Statista Consumer Insights, 73 percent of U.S. adults plan to celebrate Thanksgiving with family this year, compared to just 20 percent who will cut the Turkey with friends instead. When asked what Thanksgiving is all about, spending time with family is also among the most common answers, shortly behind simply being thankful.

The two skulls of St. Thomas Aquinas

One of the purported skulls of St. Thomas Aquinas will be available for veneration in the U.S. this week, as noted by Anne in a previous post. The skull is normally housed in Toulouse, France, where the rest of St. Thomas's bones are also interred. 

But there is a second skull of St. Thomas in Priverno, Italy, that was displayed in a procession earlier this year on the 750th anniversary of his death..

Which is the real one? To answer that, here's some background: 

The DOGE Boys

Since we were lately talking about cartoon characters, I would like to discuss Heckle and Jeckle, also known as Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Of course DOGE is their proposed agency, The Department of Government Efficiency. 

The best article I have found on DOGE is in The New Republic, by Matt Ford, November 22, 2024:

The More You Learn About Elon Musk’s DOGE, the Less Sense It Makes | The New Republic

I love Luce

 (CNA NEWS) — The Vatican introduced an anime-style mascot named Luce to represent Catholic pilgrims in the 2025 Jubilee year on Monday, Oct. 28 — and within a week, the character has already become a viral internet sensation.

Vatican’s anime-style mascot Luce goes viral on internet with Catholic memes, fan art

Read more:

No more arms sales to Netanyahu (Bernie Sanders)

 op-ed in The Washington Post today:

The United States government must stop blatantly violating the law with regard to arms sales to Israel. The Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 and the Arms Export Control Act are very clear: the United States cannot provide weapons to any country that violates internationally recognized human rights. Section 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act is also explicit: no U.S. assistance may be provided to any country that “prohibits or otherwise restricts, directly or indirectly, the transport or delivery of United States humanitarian assistance.”

According to the United Nations, much of the international community and every humanitarian organization on the ground in Gaza, Israel is clearly in violation of these laws. That is why I have introduced, with colleagues, several joint resolutions of disapproval which would block offensive arms sales to Israel. The votes will take place in the Senate on Wednesday.

Is it really that unusual a name?

This is apropos of nothing in  particular: my wife's name is Therese.  That's a two-syllable name.  But I've noticed, for the last 20 or so years, people stumble over it. Many people we encounter socially, including people who have known her for years, address her or refer to her as "Theresa".  

It irritates her (and I don't think she's wrong about it) whenever she's addressed as "Theresa".  I often correct people.  

My explanation for this is, when she was born in the early-mid 1960s, French-y names were kind of trendy (I recall, besides Thereses as relatives and classmates, some Jacquelines and Maries).  Nowadays, Spanish is much more prominent in American culture, whereas French names (and perhaps other manifestations of French culture and influence) have waned.  So people's ears sort of default to "Theresa", or even, on occasion, "Teresa" (with the Spanish pronunciation of the e's).    

Is it just us?

STATISTA: More Young Men Than Women Are Religious

STATISTA: More Young Men are Now Religious Than Women 

by Anna Fleck,

 Nov 14, 2024

Younger generations of women are less religious than their male counterparts in the United States, according to data from a Statista Consumer Insights survey. This marks a shift, as historically, U.S. women have been the more religious group. As this chart shows, for both genders, religion is becoming less widespread overall.

Christianity is the dominant religion in the U.S. Statista data shows that 51 percent of Gen Z males self-identify as Christian, with the next biggest religious groups Islam (six percent) and Buddhism (two percent). Only six percent of Gen Z men are atheists and 17 percent non-religious. For Gen Z women, 48 percent said their religion is Christianity, while only two percent said Islam and two percent Buddhism. Six percent of Gen Z women are atheists and 22 percent identify as non-religious.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Chronic Health Issues and Mental Health (Update)

STATISTA: CHRNOIC HEALTH 

Chronic Health Issues Most Often Tied to Mental Health

by Katharina Buchholz,

 Oct 18, 2024

A majority of people surveyed for Statista Consumer Insights in the United States stated that they lived with a physical limitation or chronic illness. Less than a third of respondents said this was not the case. The most widespread among chronic conditions are mental illnesses such as burnout or depression, which 34 percent of survey participants said they suffered from. Cardiovascular diseases follow in second place at 15 percent of respondents saying they had them. Diabetes and respiratory diseases are also widespread. Blindness or vision impairment still ranged in the double digits at 10 percent, twice as many as the share of respondents with deafness or hearing loss.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Mental Health and Chronic Diseases

Revenue From Tariffs

From STATISTA: 

Tariffs Are Not a Meaningful Source of Government Revenue

by Felix Richter,

Nov 12, 2024

While many economists have pointed out that tariffs are usually paid for by consumers in the form of higher prices – studies have found that Trump’s plans would cost an American middle-class family between $1,200 and $2,600 per year – the president-elect considers tariffs a universal economic and political tool.

He sees tariffs as leverage in negotiations, as a means to protect U.S. industries and as a source of revenue to pay for other initiatives. During the campaign, Trump suggested he would use the additional revenue from new tariffs to lower taxes and pay off debt. At one point he even floated the idea of eliminating income tax and replacing it with tariffs altogether – an idea that economists have quickly dismissed.

Looking at the final budget for fiscal year 2023, existing tariffs generated $80 billion in revenue, a mere drop in the bucket compared to almost $2.2 trillion in individual income tax revenue. Last year, U.S. goods imports amounted to $3.1 trillion. Applying just the simplest math suggests that only a universal tariff of 70 percent would generate enough revenue to replace individual income tax – and that’s just in theory, because imports would obviously crumble in that scenario.

The Tax Foundation estimates that Trump’s actual tariff plans would raise approximately $2 trillion in additional revenue – over the next decade, however. And that is not accounting for dynamic effects, such as retaliatory tariffs from other countries, which would further diminish revenue gains from the proposed tariffs.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Banned Hymns?

An article on the America Magazine site lately: 

Missouri bishop retracts ban on ‘All Are Welcome’ and other hymns and calls for synodal process on the issue | America Magazine

Bishop Shawn McKnight of Jefferson City, Missouri, had apparently put out a list of about a dozen hymns in common use in US parishes, that he thought were inappropriate for some reason.  Not surprisingly he got a lot of spirited pushback.

From the article

Remembering veterans

I think of Veterans Day largely as a remembrance for World War I vets, like my Grampa Clinton Foster in the photo at left taken at Camp Custer, Battle Creek, Michigan, 1917. Standing behind him, far left in the white dress is my Gramma Edith Deits. She was 21. He was 25. They would be married six years later. (Also in the photo is Grampa's sister Agnes and Gramma's younger sister, Mary.) 

Grampa was the oldest sibling left at home to work the farm when the war broke out. His father spent a lot of time away from the family as a timber assessor. When Grampa reported for duty in 1918, it was September, and several of his letters home show he was worried about the corn crop:

You did not say if the corn got ripe, and I have not seen any signs of frost here yet & it stays damp nearly all the time. 

Did you folks find the pumpkins I carved my name on in the cornfield? It is on the north side in about the 4th row. Is the corn ripe yet?

I saw an airplane land, and it was sure fine! It was the first seen since I have been here. 

Veteran's Day: Reality in America

 STATISTA: The U.S. Military Suicide Crises

Nearly half of those serving in the U.S. military have contemplated suicide since joining the forces, according to the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America (IAVA) Members 2022 report. This is a huge jump up from the nine percent that said they had thought about taking their own life before signing up.

According to a 2021 report by Thomas Howard Suitt at Boston University, suicide rates among the active military personnel and veterans of the post 9/11 wars have been climbing in recent years. While the same trend can be said of the general public, in the military and veterans spheres it’s happening at an even faster rate.

To put this into context, estimates currently put the figure of suicides among active duty personnel and veterans of the post 9/11 wars at 30,177 - a high number, especially when considering that 7,057 U.S. service members were killed in war operations in that time.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Holy poverty

This is my homily for today, the 32nd Sunday in Ordinary Time, Cycle B.  The readings for today are here.

Existential crises of The Unaware (not politics!)

I'm always interested in un-religious lives in which God seems to be busily at work, or maybe I am just interested in insisting that God is at work in the lives of the un-religious as well as those who are every-Sunday-churchgoers. People like my parents and grandparents. People like me. Serendipitously, I happened to get two books from the library that explored God's presence in the folks I'll call The Unaware in different ways:

In the novel "Stone Yard Devotional" by Australian author Charlotte Wood, a failed environmental activist joins a community of tired nuns in a dreary part of the Australian outback.  In the midst of a plague of mice, the remains of a former sister of the convent, murdered many years ago while working with abused women in Southeast Asia, are being returned to the community. Accompanying the remains is a celebrity nun with a reputation as a firebrand for human rights. Between the mice, the red tape involving the reception and interment of the remains, and the disruptive presence of the famous Sister Helen Parry, the nuns experience a turmoil that rattles the routine of work and prayer. 

Have Wages Kept Up With Inflation?

 

One of the reasons why people are so concerned with inflation is the fact that high inflation hits consumers right where it hurts: the wallet. In times of high inflation, when prices increase faster than nominal wages, real wages go down, meaning that workers see (and feel) the purchasing power of their income decline. 

 

During the current inflation crisis, this has been the case from April 2021 to April 2023, when average real hourly earnings declined for 25 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis. In May 2023, real wages began to rise again as nominal wage growth outpaced inflation once again as it normally should. 

 

By looking at cumulative wage growth and price increases since January 2020, we can answer the question whether or not wages have kept up with inflation over the past four and half years. The answer is: yes, but just barely. While nominal wages have increased 22.7 percent since the beginning of 2020, consumer prices have also surged by 21.0 percent on aggregate. This leaves real wage growth at a meager 1.5 percent for the entirety of the past four and half years, which is equivalent to an annual (real) pay increase of 0.3 percent.  

It's the Economy Stupid

 
STATISTA: It's the Economy, Stupid

by Felix Richter,

 Nov 7, 2024

„It’s the economy, stupid!“

This phrase, famously coined by political strategist James Carville during Bill Clinton’s successful presidential campaign in 1992, still holds a lot of truth more than 30 years later. In fact, it sums up pretty well what may have cost Kamala Harris the election. According to exit polls, frustration with the state of the economy, even more so than immigration, was the main driver behind Donald Trump’s sweeping return to power.

According to NEP exit polls published by NBC News, 32 percent of the interviewed voters across 10 key states picked the economy as the one issue that mattered most to them in deciding who to vote for. Of these people, 80 percent voted for Donald Trump, giving him an even higher lead on the issue than Harris achieved among voters focused on abortion, of which 74 percent voted for the Democratic candidate.

During her brief campaign, Harris apparently failed to distance herself from the economic record of the Biden administration, which had left many people feeling worse off than they did four years ago. And while one could argue that Biden steered the economy through the inflation crisis with as little damage as possible given that it was driven in part by factors outside of his control, e.g. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or global supply chain disruptions, that’s not how many people felt and the Harris campaign failed to address those largely negative feelings.

46 percent of voters said their family was worse off now compared to four years ago, which is an even higher share than in 2008, in the midst of the financial crisis. 81 percent of these people voted for Trump, suggesting that Harris was perceived as the “more of the same” candidate while Trump promised change. Despite the economy doing reasonably well on paper – steady GDP growth, unemployment low, stock prices high – Americans are very downbeat after three years of high inflation. 68 percent of voters described the state of the economy as not so good or poor, while only 31 percent said it was good or excellent.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Post election conversations

People's nerves are frayed, so I haven't gone around talking about the election. But if they say something, I listen.

Some examples: One of our sons indicated he was going to take a break from the news cycle, for mental health sake. Other son said, "Trump should not have been allowed to run after his convictions" (I agree!). But he didn't like Harris either, and "it is what it is". My sisters and I were never Trump, Harris voters. We were bummed, kind of analyzing where things went off the track. I said it was social issues that did the Dems in. One sister said no, it was inflation and the economy. We all said if you remember 1980s inflation, they have no idea what they're talking about. Actually I think it was everything added up. Then we got to talking about the past, like 10 million years ago. Because that's the age of the meter-wide petrified sea turtle that UNL paleontologists recently dug out of the lake bed near our hometown. Some parish friends said "Trump was the biggest jerk to ever run for president, but you don't get to be a king in this country. The government is way bigger than one person, and maybe the state governments actually affect people more than the federal."  I haven't talked to my brothers yet. Think I will avoid the election topic with them. So far I haven't heard any gloating from the winning side, or people wanting to jump off a bridge from the losing one.

How have the conversations been going in your areas?

Bernie Sanders on Political and Economic Reality UPDATED!

 Dear Jack,

Let me thank you all for the financial and political support that you have given me over the last many months. With your help, we’ve been able to hold well-attended rallies and town meetings for Kamala and Democratic candidates all across the country - New Hampshire, Maine, Illinois, Iowa, Texas, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. We have also, of course, held numerous events in my own state of Vermont where I’m running for reelection to the Senate.

Will we be successful in defeating Trump – the most dangerous candidate in modern American history? Well, we’ll find out soon enough. But, this I do know. No matter what the outcome of this election the Democratic Party needs fundamental and immediate reform. It can no longer continue to ignore the major economic and political crises facing the working families of our country.

Voting Results Processing Guide

 Adapted from NYT

Georgia counts fast (but watch the vote margin). 7PM 

Most Georgia voters tend to vote early in person, and vote reporting is usually relatively fast. The share of ballots cast by mail, which can often take longer to count, is expected to be small. The mail voting rate returned to the state’s usual level of around 6 percent in 2022 after growing to about 25 percent in 2020. 

The state could still be counting corrected mail ballots, overseas ballots and provisional ballots in the days after the election.

 North Carolina counts fast (with new rules). 7:30Pm

 Early, in-person voting is very popular, and votes are typically counted very quickly, with 98 to 99 percent of votes reported by midnight Eastern time in the last two major elections. New rules mean that early voting results will no longer be reported immediately at poll close time, but mail ballots are now due on Election Day (in 2020, ballots postmarked by Election Day had nine days to arrive).

 Pennsylvania is likely to take longer than election night. 8PM

 It takes longer to count votes in Pennsylvania, primarily because election workers are not allowed to start processing mail ballots until Election Day. Still, vote counting sped up significantly from 2020 to 2022, in part because of new, faster equipment and a requirement that most counties continue counting mail ballots without stopping after polls close, including through the night.

 Democrats have been much more likely to vote by mail. In the 2020 presidential race, after an initial batch of heavily Democratic votes, the reported tally favored Mr. Trump until more mail ballots were counted, and Mr. Biden’s margins increased.

 Michigan could be faster than in the past.  8-9 PM

 In the past two general elections, about half of the votes in Michigan were counted by midnight Eastern time, and the bulk of remaining votes were counted by noon the next day. But the state has passed major reforms that could speed things up: It newly implemented nine days of early in-person voting, and it now allows counties to begin processing mail ballots before Election Day (though not all places plan to take advantage of the new rule).

 Mail ballots — which have been more likely to be cast by Democrats — came in slowly over time in 2020. This contributed to a "red mirage" showing Mr. Trump ahead in the reported tally before all mail ballots had been counted. That pattern did not hold in the 2022 election for governor, and it is unclear how new pre-processing rules will affect the order of votes reported.

 Wisconsin is likely to finish most counting Wednesday. 9 PM

 Poll workers cannot begin processing ballots until Election Day, but they are required to count through the night until they are finished. In some jurisdictions, including Milwaukee, absentee ballots are counted at a central facility and are reported in large batches. A state official told CNN that full, unofficial results are not likely until the morning after the election.

 In 2020, Mr. Trump was ahead in the reported vote until the final results came in, including thousands of ballots from heavily Democratic Milwaukee. This “red mirage” in the results contributed to conspiracy theories about Mr. Biden’s victory. That pattern did not repeat in 2022.

 Arizona could take days.

 First results typically come in around 10 p.m. Eastern time, an hour after polls close. Most voters cast ballots by mail, and counting typically takes awhile. While poll workers are allowed to process those ballots that arrive before Election Day upon receipt, they must wait until after polls close to process the ones that arrive on Election Day.

 Two things could contribute to longer waits this year. Officials are now required to count and report the number of ballots dropped off on Election Day before beginning to process them. And in the state’s largest county, Maricopa, there are so many contests that the ballot is two pages, which means more paper to tabulate. Officials there said full results could take 10 to 13 days.

 Nevada could take days.

 In recent elections, about half of Nevada voters have cast ballots by mail, and counting usually takes awhile. Counting could be faster than in the past because of new technology and a rule that allows officials to tabulate ballots sooner. But postmarked ballots are allowed to arrive up to four days after the election, on Nov. 9, and voters have until Nov. 12 to address mistakes with their ballots.

 

"Let nothing disturb you...not even the election"

There is a very good article on the America site by Brother Joe Hoover, SJ:

Listen to the saints and mystics: Let nothing disturb you—not even the election. | America Magazine

All of us are feeling stressed and full of angst about how things are going to turn out tomorrow.  We need to take a breath of air.  

From the article:

Predictions

I predict Kamala Harris will win the presidential election.*  

My amateur reasoning here is based on a combination of the gender gap and the education gap.  I think women are more motivated to vote for Harris (and against Trump) than men are motivated to vote for Trump.   And I think there will be sufficient college-educated suburban men in the "blue-wall states" of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania who will vote for Harris to put her over the top in at least one of those states.

I also predict Republicans will end up with a 51-49 majority in the Senate.  My entirely conventional expectation is that Republicans will pick up two seats, in West Virginia and Montana.  I also predict John Thune will become the new Senate Majority leader.

And just to keep things interesting: I'll also predict that Democrats will flip the House of Representatives.  I don't have any particular reason for thinking this.

What outcomes do you expect?

*I was going to add "...on Tuesday" to that sentence, but in fact with early voting the election already is underway, and it's quite possible that when we wake up Wednesday morning, we won't know yet for certain who won.