I predict Kamala Harris will win the presidential election.*
My amateur reasoning here is based on a combination of the gender gap and the education gap. I think women are more motivated to vote for Harris (and against Trump) than men are motivated to vote for Trump. And I think there will be sufficient college-educated suburban men in the "blue-wall states" of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania who will vote for Harris to put her over the top in at least one of those states.
I also predict Republicans will end up with a 51-49 majority in the Senate. My entirely conventional expectation is that Republicans will pick up two seats, in West Virginia and Montana. I also predict John Thune will become the new Senate Majority leader.
And just to keep things interesting: I'll also predict that Democrats will flip the House of Representatives. I don't have any particular reason for thinking this.
What outcomes do you expect?
*I was going to add "...on Tuesday" to that sentence, but in fact with early voting the election already is underway, and it's quite possible that when we wake up Wednesday morning, we won't know yet for certain who won.
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ReplyDeleteI expect Trump to win Michigan and Pennsylvania, and, thus, another term. It will be close, but most Repubs I know think that Harris will get us into a war with Russia, fail to support Israel, be weak with China, overspend, push the Liberal Agenda (abortion, DEI, anti Christian, welfare, forced vaccination), and that she is just not experienced enough. They're not big Trumpers, but they think Harris is too extreme.
ReplyDeleteIf Trump wins, the Dem leaders are going to have to do a lot of soul searching re: the Biden->Harris candidate sequence.
DeleteI think trump will win because of our messed up electoral system where only 7 states decide the outcome. And if he does win, based in his rhetoric it is unlikely that the Dems will have to do any soul searching because he has said that free elections will most likely end. He, supported by his advisors, and the thousands of civil servants who will replace those now in federal government, will begin creating an Orban style faux democracy to establish white Christian nationalist policies. I believe his rhetoric - starting in 2016 people told me to ignore his rhetoric. I believed him then and I believe him now. He turned out to be even worse than I had envisioned. Months before Jan 6, 2021 he was sending messages that he would not comply with the election results if he lost. I did not anticipate a traditional, peaceful transition as someone here did ( ahem) and I fully expect he will incite violence again if he loses. If he wins, he will carry out his purges of political enemies as Hitler did as his first step - before he turned his attention to Jews and other undesirables - civil rights for minorities, freedom of the press, and true freedom of religion will all be replaced by pseudo freedoms if he wins, controls congress, and the spineless SC.
DeleteI would be delighted to be proven wrong.
I think trump will win because of our messed up electoral system where only 7 states decide the outcome. And if he does win, based in his rhetoric it is unlikely that the Dems will have to do any soul searching because he has said that free elections will most likely end. He, supported by his advisors, and the thousands of civil servants who will replace those now in federal government, will begin creating an Orban style faux democracy to establish white Christian nationalist policies. I believe his rhetoric - starting in 2016 people told me to ignore his rhetoric. I believed him then and I believe him now. He turned out to be even worse than I had envisioned. Months before Jan 6, 2021 he was sending messages that he would not comply with the election results if he lost. I did not anticipate a traditional, peaceful transition as someone here did ( ahem) and I fully expect he will incite violence again if he loses. If he wins, he will carry out his purges of political enemies as Hitler did as his first step - before he turned his attention to Jews and other undesirables - civil rights for minorities, freedom of the press, and true freedom of religion will all be replaced by pseudo freedoms if he wins, controls congress, and the spineless SC.
DeleteI would be delighted to be proven wrong.
I think both parties should do a lot of soul searching whoever wins. But they won't. The loser will just blame the loss on low-info voters (and, apparently Tim Walz; I hear a lot of grousing about Harris not going with Shapiro is going to cost her Pennsylvania). Maybe 30 percent of the electorate actually are low-info/FOX info voters. But the rest are tired out, unenthusiastic, and hoping they've elected the lesser evil.
DeleteWe ARE weak with respect to China. When you consider the relative manufacturing capability, it’s a physical fact. I don’t see how any of the supply chains for our weapon systems don’t somehow go through China. Nothing blowhard politicians can say or do can change that fact, at least overnight. When will poor, deluded Americans realize the day we could set the world’s agenda is over AND it’s not coming back. I’m getting intraocular lenses implanted in January. I want to get done what I can before the tent collapses on this circus.
DeleteWe are weak with respect to any number of things because we keep putting up terrible or at least uninspired candidates on both sides.
DeleteA good number of Trump supporters seem to like him because he gets them all jacked up. Trump is their drug of choice. Sending them to a stadium for free meth and a "Survivor" marathon would work just as good and be less dangerous for the rest of us.
Good luck with your lenses! Reminds me I need an eye exam.