I predict Kamala Harris will win the presidential election.*
My amateur reasoning here is based on a combination of the gender gap and the education gap. I think women are more motivated to vote for Harris (and against Trump) than men are motivated to vote for Trump. And I think there will be sufficient college-educated suburban men in the "blue-wall states" of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania who will vote for Harris to put her over the top in at least one of those states.
I also predict Republicans will end up with a 51-49 majority in the Senate. My entirely conventional expectation is that Republicans will pick up two seats, in West Virginia and Montana. I also predict John Thune will become the new Senate Majority leader.
And just to keep things interesting: I'll also predict that Democrats will flip the House of Representatives. I don't have any particular reason for thinking this.
What outcomes do you expect?
*I was going to add "...on Tuesday" to that sentence, but in fact with early voting the election already is underway, and it's quite possible that when we wake up Wednesday morning, we won't know yet for certain who won.
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ReplyDeleteI expect Trump to win Michigan and Pennsylvania, and, thus, another term. It will be close, but most Repubs I know think that Harris will get us into a war with Russia, fail to support Israel, be weak with China, overspend, push the Liberal Agenda (abortion, DEI, anti Christian, welfare, forced vaccination), and that she is just not experienced enough. They're not big Trumpers, but they think Harris is too extreme.
ReplyDeleteIf Trump wins, the Dem leaders are going to have to do a lot of soul searching re: the Biden->Harris candidate sequence.
DeleteI think trump will win because of our messed up electoral system where only 7 states decide the outcome. And if he does win, based in his rhetoric it is unlikely that the Dems will have to do any soul searching because he has said that free elections will most likely end. He, supported by his advisors, and the thousands of civil servants who will replace those now in federal government, will begin creating an Orban style faux democracy to establish white Christian nationalist policies. I believe his rhetoric - starting in 2016 people told me to ignore his rhetoric. I believed him then and I believe him now. He turned out to be even worse than I had envisioned. Months before Jan 6, 2021 he was sending messages that he would not comply with the election results if he lost. I did not anticipate a traditional, peaceful transition as someone here did ( ahem) and I fully expect he will incite violence again if he loses. If he wins, he will carry out his purges of political enemies as Hitler did as his first step - before he turned his attention to Jews and other undesirables - civil rights for minorities, freedom of the press, and true freedom of religion will all be replaced by pseudo freedoms if he wins, controls congress, and the spineless SC.
DeleteI would be delighted to be proven wrong.
I think both parties should do a lot of soul searching whoever wins. But they won't. The loser will just blame the loss on low-info voters (and, apparently Tim Walz; I hear a lot of grousing about Harris not going with Shapiro is going to cost her Pennsylvania). Maybe 30 percent of the electorate actually are low-info/FOX info voters. But the rest are tired out, unenthusiastic, and hoping they've elected the lesser evil.
DeleteWe ARE weak with respect to China. When you consider the relative manufacturing capability, it’s a physical fact. I don’t see how any of the supply chains for our weapon systems don’t somehow go through China. Nothing blowhard politicians can say or do can change that fact, at least overnight. When will poor, deluded Americans realize the day we could set the world’s agenda is over AND it’s not coming back. I’m getting intraocular lenses implanted in January. I want to get done what I can before the tent collapses on this circus.
DeleteWe are weak with respect to any number of things because we keep putting up terrible or at least uninspired candidates on both sides.
DeleteA good number of Trump supporters seem to like him because he gets them all jacked up. Trump is their drug of choice. Sending them to a stadium for free meth and a "Survivor" marathon would work just as good and be less dangerous for the rest of us.
Good luck with your lenses! Reminds me I need an eye exam.
I don't know. I don't trust polls. I don't know how Republican women in Ohio concerned about abortion rights are going to vote? Vote against both a Republican President and a Republican Senator? Vote against one and not the other? Surely, they would they not vote for both! Do they think Ohio's constitutional amendment settled the question?
ReplyDeleteI don't think abortion is a high priority in Michigan except among women who want Roe restored nationwide, and those are largely single-issue voters. I do hear women my age wanting Democrats to shut up about gender and reproductive issues and just stick to the "Trump is crazy and he's gonna get all killed" angle. They think gender issues put off independents.
DeleteBut I think Harris will lose Michigan because of the Arab-American Uncommitted movement. Arab-Americans here are overwhelmingly Democrats, and they are dogging Harris at every campaign stop here with chants and protests. As far as I can see, she's not saying anything that would turn this around.
I don't know what she can say. If she says she's going to cut off aid to Israel she will lose crossover Republicans, not to mention most Jewish voters. Those groups would outnumber Arab Americans.
DeleteIf yard signs are a proxy for anything, around here the Harris signs outnumber the Trump signs 50 to 1. That doesn't mean that Harris will beat Trump by that margin. There is a secret-Trump-voter phenomenon.
ReplyDeleteJim, I'm predicting along with you that Harris will win. Actually I'm predicting that she will win decisively. At least I can hope. I am going to go out on a limb and be a bit of a Harris booster. I think she is actually a well qualified candidate, because of her history as a prosecutor, her years in the Senate, and three and a half years as vice president. She's light years ahead of JD Vance in that regard.
ReplyDeleteI don't think people who were disappointed that Harris didn't choose Shapiro for vp are going to be so mad about it that they vote for Trump. People who like Shapiro are not the same ones who like Trump.
About the Biden Harris candidacy sequence, given the tightness of the timeline, Harris was the only viable option. It could be correctly said that in order to have another outcome, Biden would have needed to drop out much sooner. I think he should have. But he didn't . So you go with the strength you have.
What Jean said above about Republicans feeling that Harris will get us into a war with Russia, I have heard before. In fact Ross Douthat said something like that. My opinion is that the only reason to think Trump would be less likely is that he likes to appease and kiss up to dictators. Maybe he should ask Neville Chamberlain how that turned out. It didn't keep us out of war after all.
Yes, good point about Trump keeping us out of wars because he'll just appease the dictators. He's told Bibi to "finish the job," which is the total annihilation of Gazans. And he's made comments to the effect that Ukraine should concede territory to Russia.
DeleteAs I read it, a lot of Dems in retrospect think Shapiro over Walz would have been better because Shapiro is a better debater and bulldog, who could have delivered more "undecideds." They say Walz is great being folksy at the whoopee pie shop but not much else. I think they're wrong. He's been effective here in Michigan with labor.
Someone handing out flyers for Dan Osborn's candidacy for Senate met me on the sidewalk as I was getting out of the car this afternoon. He is an Independent candidate. I am leaning toward voting for him as opposed to Deb Fisher, the incumbent for that seat. I have some things against her. She did not vote to impeach Trump when she had the chance. She won't say out loud that Trump lost in 2020. She is said to be in favor of lowering social security benefits and increasing the retirement age (I will have to fact check that for sure) . But she has struck me as just another spineless Republican. She and Dan Osborn appear to be neck and neck.
ReplyDeleteI think odds are that Trump is going to win, although I still hold out hope for Harris. I am extremely worried of this country. The consensus on Washington Week With the Atlantic was that it's not over even if harris wins. What used to be the Republican Party is now the Party of Trump, and there are not enough principled Republicans left to revive the old Party.
ReplyDeleteIt is astonishing that Trump was able to destroy not only the Republican Party, but grossly distort American Christianity, particularly Evangelicals.
I am thinking of the Catholic concept of "vincible ignorance." Truth has gone out the window. It is difficult to know how many Trump supporters are deceived, how many are indifferent to the truth, and how many simply love lying.
I'm reading that Trump demonstrated some odd behavior with a microphone in Milwaukee. Sounds like someone having disinhibition issues in a memory care unit.
DeleteTrump was having aother sh*t fit about the sound system, and some of the frat boy commentators said it looked like he was trying to fellate the mic. I hope these "analysts" on both ends of the political spectrum go back to watching "Jackass" movies if Harris wins by some miracle.
DeleteI think Trump is going to win. My friend thinks Harris will win because women will outnumber men at the polls and they want back the power taken away from them by the overturning of Roe versus Wade. For me, I hope to become more active in opposing the Israel-US cooperative genocide after the election or probably after my decrepit eyes are fixed in January. Activism will probably be much less healthy under Orange Shrek than Harris although I expect zionists will beat activists up while cops look on, as they did under Biden. It’ll be a transfer of the situation where the Israeli settlers bulldoze and terrorize Palestinians while the IGF looks on.
ReplyDeleteKeep fighting the good fight, Stan.
DeleteI loathe the way Trump talks about women, but somebody on NPR yesterday was talking about how little effect big name Republicans for Harris and initiatives like the Lincoln Project have had on voters at the grass roots level. Repubs, men and women, are still voting for Trump.