According to Edward Feser in an essay in First Things, the answer to the question "Does just war doctrine require moral certainty?" is yes.
Feser's essay concludes with this paragraph:
Thus does the tradition require moral certainty if a war is going to be just. Those who admit that the case for the Iran war is problematic are wrong to conclude that Catholics can legitimately disagree over the matter, or that we should suspend judgment. If the war does not meet the standard of moral certainty, then we can be certain that we must oppose it.
Here is an excerpt from earlier in the essay:
Exactly what degree of certainty is required, and why does the tradition require it? Both questions are best answered by way of stock examples. Suppose a hunter considers firing into some bushes. On standard natural law thinking, he may do so only if he is certain there is no other hunter behind them. If he considers it merely probable that there is no one behind them and fires anyway, he is guilty of wrongdoing, even if he doesn’t hit anyone. For his action was reckless. Or consider a jury deciding whether to sentence an accused murderer to be executed. They may not do so if they think it merely probable that he is guilty (as opposed to being certain “beyond a reasonable doubt” that he is guilty). For to leave open the serious possibility of executing an innocent man would be a grave injustice, just as the murder itself is.
This is the degree of certainty that the tradition says governing authorities must have about the justice of a war before initiating it. The reason should be obvious. If it is gravely immoral to risk killing a fellow hunter or a person wrongly accused of a crime, then it is even more gravely immoral to enter into a war that is, at best, only arguably just.
To forestall misunderstandings, note that the claim is not that governing authorities must have absolute or metaphysical certainty (of the kind we have when we know, for example, that 1 + 1 = 2). Nor does the tradition claim that we need to have certainty about every aspect of a war. We need to be morally certain only that a proposed war meets all just war criteria (just cause, lawful authority, right intention, right means, and so on). For example, one of the criteria of a just war is that “there must be serious prospects of success” (as the Catechism puts it). Hence, governing authorities don’t need to be certain of the success. However, they do need to be certain that there are serious prospects of success.