Africa has a fertility rate that is similar to the world fertility rate in 1963. Most of the rest of the world has dropped below replacement level.
The State of Global Fertility
On average, women in 1963 were having 5.3 children in their lifetime and by 2021, that had more than halved to 2.3. During the same period, the global population rose by around 150 percent from 3.2 billion to 7.9 billion. The fact that populations kept (and keep) growing despite falling global fertility is tied to longer life expectancy and lower childhood mortality. The UN expects global fertility to reach the minimum replacement level of 2.1 by the middle of the century while global population is expected to start falling towards the end of it.
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This has implications for the end of the century. Population wise, Africa will have replaced Europe of the 1950s. The USA, a constant across time, will be the only representative of the Americas.
While in 2020, five out of the ten most populous countries in the world were located in Asia, the picture will look different in 2100, when five African countries – Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Egypt and the Democratic Republic of the Congo – will be among the world’s ten largest.
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SUMMARIES BELOW FROM THE ASSOCIATION OF RELIGION DATA ARCHIVES
NIGERIA has an area of 356,700 square miles and a population of 144 million. While some groups estimate the population to be 50 percent Muslim, 40 percent Christian, and 10 percent traditional indigenous, it is generally assumed that the proportion of citizens who practice Islam or Christianity are roughly equal and include a substantial number who practice traditional indigenous religious beliefs alongside Christianity or Islam. Catholic (12%) Protestant (30%) Independent Christian (14%)
THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO has an area of 905,000 square miles and a population of 66.5 million. Approximately 55 percent of the population is Roman Catholic, 30 percent is main line Protestant, and less than 5 percent each is Kimbanguiste or Muslim. The remainder generally practices traditional indigenous religious beliefs. Other religious groups include Jehovah's Witnesses, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormons), and Orthodox Christians.
ETHIOPIA has an area of 472,000 square miles, and a population of 77 million. An estimated 40 to 45 percent of the population belongs to the Ethiopian Orthodox Church (EOC), which is predominant in the northern regions of Tigray and Amhara.
Approximately 45 percent of the population is Sunni Muslim, of which the overwhelming majority is Sufi. Islam is most prevalent in the eastern Somali and Afar regions, as well as in many parts of Oromiya.
Christian evangelical and Pentecostal groups constitute an estimated 10 percent of the population.
ZANZIBAR has an area of 364,900 square miles and a population of 40 million, of which 38 million live on the mainland and 2 million on the Zanzibar archipelago, which has a semi autonomous political structure separate from the mainland political system. Current statistics on religious demography are unavailable because religious surveys were eliminated from government census reports after 1967. Religious leaders and sociologists estimate that the Christian and Muslim communities are equal in size, each accounting for 30 to 40 percent of the population, with the remainder consisting of practitioners of other faiths and traditional indigenous religions. However, 99 percent of the population on the Zanzibar archipelago is Muslim. Half the Christians are Catholic; the other half are Protestant.
EGYPT has an area of 370,308 square miles and a population of 79 million, of whom almost 90 percent are Sunni Muslims. Shi'a Muslims constitute less than 1 percent of the population. Estimates of the percentage of Christians ranged from 8 to 12 percent, (6 to 10 million), the majority of whom belonged to the Coptic Orthodox Church.
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