I dined in a restaurant last night. Now I understand why COVID cases are spiking again.
For the last year-plus, during this time of lock-down and prudence, I've dined at restaurants some 15-20 times. Most of these were last summer, when the weather was warm and dining outside was possible. My wife and I had a mini-getaway to Wisconsin last summer, during which we ate every single meal outside. Our suburb also instituted downtown outdoor dining last summer, for which the main street through downtown was closed to traffic and all the eateries set up outdoor seating on the sidewalks and street. Our family dined in that outdoor area two or three times during the course of the summer.
Since the weather turned colder last fall, I can think of four instances in which we've dined indoors in restaurants. We recognize that there is some risk in doing so. But Illinois has imposed pretty strict seating limits, and my wife and I are pretty conservative when it comes to mask-wearing, hand sanitizing and so on, so we thought we could risk a very occasional evening out. In addition, we want to support restaurant owners and workers. And honestly, there is a mental health side to this: we've been feeling extremely housebound, and sometimes are ready to climb the walls.
The pandemic situation has changed since last summer: I've received both doses of the vaccine, my wife has received her first dose, and capacity limits are starting to relax on dining and drinking establishments. (Disturbingly, one thing that hasn't changed is that cases of infection have been rising across the country, although they may - may - have been leveling off in Illinois.) So last night, with our children all busy doing other things, only my wife and I would have been at home at dinner time, and we decided to try dining out.
As we hadn't planned ahead, we had to try for reservations at two or three restaurants before we found one which could accommodate us. It is a decent-ish Italian place which we had tried once before, in pre-pandemic days. It isn't affiliated with OpenTable or any of the other online reservation apps, so I had to actually call them on the telephone to get a reservation.
I was a little surprised that they had availability with little or no advance notice, because as I recalled from our previous, pre-COVID visit, it was a small dining room and they had practically needed a shoehorn to wedge us in with the other diners. As I spoke with whomever answered the phone, I was a little surprised at the rather casual way he agreed to seat us at that time. My impression from the way he handled it, and his tone of voice, was that capacity limits weren't top of mind. Hmm, I thought to myself, I wonder if he's bending the rules (whatever they are these days; I confess I've lost track of the permissible capacity ceilings) to try to squeeze us in.
When we arrived, I quickly concluded that he hadn't bent any rules; he was snapping them in two like strands of uncooked spaghetti. The dining room was nearly as packed as it had been during our pre-pandemic previous visit. Scanning the tables, I realized that not a single patron was masked. Everything was very convivial (it's a noisy dining room), with people laughing, talking, drinking and having a great time.
It was a youngish crowd; my wife and I probably were among the older persons there. Naturally, I speculated about everyone's vaccination status. Our local newscast this evening reported that half of American adults have received at least one vaccination, with a quarter of us fully vaccinated. That accords with my assumption last night: most likely, some of those patrons have been vaccinated, and some haven't.
We were seated at a table jammed in between three others, two with larger parties and one with another couple. We were less than six feet away from at least some people at all those tables. (But has the recommended minimum distance now been lowered to three feet?). Two times I asked my wife, who after all is less vaccinated than I am, if she was okay with our seating situation. I made it clear that I'd happily leave if she wasn't comfortable. Or, alternatively, the restaurant did have some outdoor seating available. It was pretty chilly last night - below 50 degrees - but we had jackets, and the restaurant had provided outdoor warmers. There was one family with young children dining outside when we had arrived, so seemingly the outdoor dining was feasible. But my wife said she was okay with us being inside, so we stuck it out.
I did kind of ok with keeping my mask on when we weren't eating (in general, I only do kind of okay with masks at restaurants, and I'm pretty sure most other people do even worse). I had to take my mask off several times to make myself understood by our waitperson, because the dining room was so noisy. She leaned in within a foot or two of my face when we were trying to communicate.
During the pandemic, I haven't been as isolated as many people. I've been doing mass all along on weekends, and have been working with our Outreach ministry on some weekends. I've also continued to do weekly grocery shopping. Whether it's because of good health or sheer luck, I've stayed healthy and, as far as I can tell, have not been a spreader to others. I'm one of those lucky persons whom the virus has bypassed - so far. And now I'm vaccinated. So maybe I'm more anxious about this now than I need to be.
But I consider last night an eye-opener. The virus has been making a comeback, even in the midst of the vaccination ramp-up. After what I witnessed last night, I'm not surprised that cases have been spiking.
My conclusion is that people aren't being very smart. I think people think about the virus in a binary, on-off fashion: either we're completely not safe, or we're completely safe. If we're completely not safe, then we shut down all social intercourse; if we're completely safe, we discontinue all precautions. Intermediary stages and shades are too subtle for us.
As a general rule, I'm a believer in not infantilizing Americans. American adults should be capable of assessing risks and making prudent, responsible decisions. But for this pandemic, we need direction. This is the first time most of us have been through this; there isn't any tribal knowledge we can fall back on. We need trustworthy leaders to tell us what we should and should not be doing. I don't think we're smart enough to do the right things on our own.
Approximately 5,800 people have become infected with coronavirus after being vaccinated against the virus, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told CNN. According to the CDC, 396 of those who got infected after they were vaccinated required hospitalization and 74 people died. This is the CDC's first public accounting of these cases, and the CDC's reports on breakthrough cases will lag day-to-day reports of vaccines given, so many, if not most, of those breakthrough cases will have happened weeks ago, CNN reports. "So far, about 5,800 breakthrough cases have been reported to CDC. To date, no unexpected patterns have been identified in case demographics or vaccine characteristics," the CDC told CNN via email. About 80 million people in the US are fully vaccinated, according to CDC data.
ReplyDeleteWhile one's chances of getting the virus, or being hospitalized, or dying after getting the vaccine are small, they are not zero. And, of course as we get more dangerous variants, they will rise.
I just think the virus is far too prevalent to become relaxed after vaccination. As for dining out, Betty and I were talking about it today. She doubts we will be getting back to it anytime soon. Both she and I like her vegetarian cooking, and she has so many dietary problems that it is always risky anyway.
About the people who were infected after vaccination, I would be curious to know how many had received both shots (if it was Moderna or Pfizer) and if enough time had elapsed to give full immunity. Most sources say it takes 2 weeks after the second shot.
DeleteA friend of one of my sons got sick with Covid a day or two after her first shot. Her doctor said she had likely been exposed before the shot, and got hit with the "double whammy" of the virus and a shot reaction. She recovered but was quite ill.
There are approximately 200 million American adults. Based on the numbers reported this weekend, about 100 million of them have received at least one dose of the vaccine. The 6,000 or so breakthrough cases would have been weeks ago, so let's assume (to make the math simple) that only 60 million Americans were partially or fully vaccinated then. If I am dropping zeros correctly, that means that one out of 10,000 vaccinated individuals were breakthrough-infected. That is .0001, or .01 percent. By comparison, about 2 percent of Americans were infected during the pre-vaccination era of the pandemic. I think that means that an unvaccinated person would have been 200 times more likely to get infected than a vaccinated person. For a fully vaccinated person, the odds probably are even lower.
DeleteIt's still many times more likely that a vaccinated person will get breakthrough-infected than that s/he will win Powerball!
I think you're right that some people aren't being very smart. Actually there are trustworthy people telling us what we ought to be doing or not doing. It's just that people don't feel the need to pay attention.
ReplyDeleteWe haven't had the indoor restaurant dining experience yet. But we have had attended a couple of events which involved eating in a group. The first was a brunch last October for deacons who had an anniversary of ordination. The second was a week ago Saturday for a reception after the Confirmation Mass here. The archbishop is doing Confirmations again. I was a little uncomfortable at both events, because there's no way you can eat while wearing a mask. But we've had both Moderna shots now.
This morning choir did full music for Mass. I took my mask down to sing, which I hadn't been doing up to now. There still isn't congregational singing, and no missalettes in the pews. Like you, K. has been assisting at church for some time now. So I guess we are making some tentative steps back to "normal life".
"Actually there are trustworthy people telling us what we ought to be doing or not doing. It's just that people don't feel the need to pay attention."
DeleteWhy people have decided they don't trust Dr. Fauci and other public health officials is one of the abiding and disturbing mysteries of our time. I think it's one bit of evidence to the theory that large sectors of America are essentially ungovernable.
It's political, Jim, as you know. The Libertarian movement has convinced a whole lot of people not to trust the government for anything.
DeleteDr. Fauci and others who publicly disagreed with Trump on the public health measures needed were vilified. They had produced data that showed that without a concentrated, consistent national effort to control the outbreak, hundreds of thousands of Americans would die of Covid. Trump insisted that it was no worse than the seasonal flu, publicizing the one year of the last 20 or so when seasonal flu caused 60,000 deaths. The average is about 20,000/year. Now we're at 566,000 Covid deaths and still going up hundreds of more deaths every day. But, death rates are declining as the focus on getting we old folk vaccinated accelerated. Cases continue to climb at a high rate, but the death rate has gone down. Still - several hundred/day is not where we want to be. Hundreds is better than thousands, but we still can’t relax.
As you know, Trump did not want to shut down the economy because of the election. He didn't want people to be reminded of the pandemic by mandating masks or social distancing etc. He encouraged me-me-me Libertarianisn when they said that masks impinge on personal freedom. Eventually he sidelined Dr. F, and even Dr. Birx in favor of a doc who would bend the statistics for him. Dr. Birx had been the one to develop the data charts for the WH to use and discovered to her dismay that they were not using hers - they were publicly presenting totally different numbers developed by Dr. Atlas. She was shut out of meetings along with Dr.F.. Dr. Birx's mea culpa may or may not save her reputation and career, because it was too little, and way too late.
So the Trump cult piled on to Dr. Fauci, spreading viral lies and conspiracy theories widely through social media. I received one of the viral anti-Fauci conspiracy emails of lies from my own trump supporting, devout Catholic sister. He and his wife and three adult daughters all had to have security assigned to them because of the huge numbers of death threats they received. Conservative Catholics also demonized Fauci because he is no longer a practicing Catholic even though he was raised Catholic.
Add in the evangelical christians who not only think that trump was chosen by God to be president, they literally also believe in a six day, 24 hour creation and a literal Adam and Eve, and that the earth is only 6000 years old and that Noah really did put two of every kind of animal life on a relatively small boat (given where he lived, how did he get hold of kangaroos?). Etc. They don't trust science any more than they trust government. Many evangelical preachers are telling their members that getting the vaccine is a sign of weak faith. Just trust in God. Even Ivanka is being trashed on social media because she got a vaccine and urged others to do so.
Yes - large segments of the American population are almost ungovernable. The trump faction does not care about facts and it controls the GOP.
Strict measures work if they are consistent and across the board. Australia has had roughly 1000 deaths. The economy continued to run, but not at full steam. My son's family's life in Sydney was pretty normal. Now they have to get used to a different normal in the US. Not just Covid, but the sick American culture - sick meant metaphorically. The grocery store in Boulder where the people were massacred is only 3 miles from their new house. Gun deaths in Australia are rare, especially homicides. After a mass shooting in the 1990s, assault type weapons were banned almost overnight (as happened also in New Zealand) with popular support. My son and his family will have to become more aware in regards to Covid. But mass shootings are totally unpredictable.
If the US had done as well as Oz, relative to population size, we would have about 7000 deaths instead of almost 570,000.
Re Jim's comment about much of America becoming ungovernable -
Deletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/19/us/democracy-gop-democrats-sectarianism.html?referringSource=articleShare
Liberty without responsibility. An overdeveloped sense of self-esteem and rights-based entitlement. The only chance we have is if enough people get vaccinated quick enough because not enough people are responsible enough to do their civic duty. How many Americans even know what that means?
ReplyDeleteWell, Jim, you and your wife have eaten out more during a year of pandemic than my husband and I do when there is no pandemic - at least when we are home. We mostly eat in restaurants when we are traveling, and since we haven’t been doing that, no restaurants since we came back from Hawaii in Feb 2020.
ReplyDeleteWe are older than you and your wife, so higher risk just due to age. My husband has a couple of health issues that raise his risk even more. Dr. Fauci is our guide. He will now socialize indoors in his own home or at the home of close friends who are also vaccinated. He will not eat indoors at a restaurant. He is also not planning to fly anytime soon. So, we had friends ( one couple), also vaccinated, over yesterday for dinner, indoors. I still felt a bit nervous even in our own home with good friends, and will definitely not be eating in indoor restaurants any time soon. During the winter, at our son’s, we ordered restaurant food about once/ week but either picked it up or had it delivered. Our son was doing all of the cooking, and we wanted to give him a break. At home we get carry out Mexican food about twice/ month. During the summer, if Covid rates stay low here, we might try an outdoor restaurant, but only if it’s not crowded.
Based on our two road trips across the country in the last few months, I think there is more civic responsibility in some parts of the country than in others, just based on watching people when we stopped for gasoline, in shopping centers where the gas stations were, in the hotel lobbies, etc. . We didn’t check out any restaurants of course. Drive through only.
Yes, we carry in or do home delivery more than we've eaten out. As I mentioned, most of the instances where we've dined out, we've sat outside. That isn't risk-free, but it should be somewhat lower risk than indoor dining.
DeleteOf the four instances I'm thinking of when we've eaten indoors, two have been for special occasions (wedding anniversary and Valentine's Day). The other two, including this past weekend's, weren't for any particular reason.
Of the four times, two did a very good job with seating for social distancing, and two didn't. One of the times where the restaurant did a good job, there was a big snowstorm which presumably would have kept many patrons away even during pre-pandemic times, so for all I know, they are big rules violators except for that particular night.
I've also concluded that one safety advantage of outdoor dining, at least when it's in front of the restaurant along a public way, is that the safety measures are highly visible to police, public health officials and anyone else who might be in a position to cause trouble for the restaurant and its owner.
One of the problems with indoor dining is air flow - there is less air and more people breathing out, potentially germs. Studies have also shown that when there have been a number of infections traced to one restaurant, the flow of air from the HVAC system impacted the odds of getting infected. Some tables were much safer than others. Last fall Maryland did a small study - maybe too small to mean anything, but they found that the rate of infection in indoor dining in restaurants was double that of outdoors. In the open air the exhalations dissipate more widely and quickly.
DeleteDr. Fauci is very careful for his own and his wife's health. He said that if someone's risk factors are lower than his, outdoor restaurant dining might be a risk that one could take. But he still does not recommend indoor dining. Or airplane travel for the higher risk cohort. We plan to go to Colorado and maybe California in late Mary or June. We do NOT want to do another cross-country drive! As far as Colorado if absolutely indicated, but not all the way again this time. So will be watching the trends carefully. The careful experts, like Dr. F, recommend keeping masks on at all times on planes and to not eat or drink, even food you have brought yourself.
My partner and I ate out in a restaurant for the first time in a year the day we both got our second Moderna shots (March 30). This was alway a very crowded restaurant pre-Covid, but we were the first indoor customers that evening, and only two more tables (a party of 2 and a party of 4) came into use while we ate. There were a number of customers outside. It was a nice day.
ReplyDeleteI am somewhat mystified why New York has such a problem still, because compliance with masking and social distancing where I can see it is near 100 percent. On rare occasions someone on the subway is not wearing a mask, or is half wearing one, but trains have not been at all crowded. (Ridership is just beginning to pick up, though.) I heard that family gatherings and private get-togethers with groups of friends are contributing to the continued spread.
My partner and I always complain about the noise level in the restaurant we went to (Excellent Dumpling), but our first visit there in a year was strangely underwhelming. I think a noisy, crowded (and cheap!) restaurant provides a more satisfying experience than a quiet, empty one. I have read that when certain kinds of noisy public spaces do things like turn down background music, they lose patrons, no matter how much people claim they don't like the noise.
Guessing compliance rates may vary by neighborhood in NYC and that the lack of compliance in some areas is leading to higher than average cases overall than in the neighborhoods where you hang out. I live in a deep blue state, but the rural areas are trump country. Those are also the only areas in the state where we have seen mask less people in public/ shared spaces. The current indoor density allowed here is now 50% I believe, but since we don’t eat in restaurants yet, I don’t know if some are breaking the rules.
Delete"My partner and I always complain about the noise level in the restaurant we went to (Excellent Dumpling), but our first visit there in a year was strangely underwhelming. I think a noisy, crowded (and cheap!) restaurant provides a more satisfying experience than a quiet, empty one."
DeleteI think you're right. But even though the establishment we patronized last week was crowded and noisy, the anxiety about COVID still cast a shadow over the experience. Doing things in public is just not the same. I think restaurants, bars, clubs and theaters are going to find the road back to financial sustainability will be long and arduous.
We've gotten take-out fast food a bunch of times. But normally we only go to an actual restaurant for birthdays and anniversaries. Haven't even done that since the pandemic. But looking forward to going to the nice restaurant in town (there's only one nice one, plenty of the other kind) for our anniversary in July.
DeleteUnder the heading of "people not being smart" I just read an article about a growing black market for blank vaccination cards. Just looking at my card, the information about name, date of birth, and date of vaccination is hand written. The only part that wouldn't be easy to fake are the two stickers with name of vaccine, lot number, and expiration date. Even those could be duplicated by someone with a good printer. The article pointed out that we need some form of digital data base back-up. Since the shots are free, it is mystifying why anyone would want a fake card, especially now that vaccine opportunities are opening up to most adults. A fake card has zero ability to keep you safe from Covid. Unless you are one of the ones who think the whole thing is fake and you don't believe in it, and if you have a card it will keep your family (or employer) off your back. Or you are that afraid of a little needle stick and some discomfort.
ReplyDeleteThere is discussion of requiring vaccine passports for travel. Many already break travel guidelines so fake vaccine cards would just be another way to stick it to the man.
DeleteI guess, if we can get to the point of genuine herd immunity, the fake-vaccine-card scofflaws won't pose much of a public health threat. But whether we'll ever get to the point of herd immunity is very much an open question at the moment.
DeleteMore people not being smart. Was talking to my sister last night. One of her daughters is a PA for a pulmonology practice. The bad news is that the number of their Covid patients who have be hospitalized is going up. The worse news is that nearly 100% of these patients had the opportunity to be vaccinated weeks ago (because of age or comorbidities) but didn't do it. Procrastination or denial can have serious consequences.
ReplyDelete