Below the break is my original curve, plus two more for the recent data.
Curve that I fitted to the early NY Times database, each day had 1.315 more cases than the prior data.
For the first couple of weeks the curve fitted well because the number was chosen to make the fit.
Then for about two weeks from March 14 through March 27 the number of cases exceeded the predicted than things reversed with the number of predicted cases exceeding the actual cases. On April 3, the number of cases which we would have had if we had done nothing would have been over a 100,000 new cases per day. Note how quickly the catastrophe would have occurred.
| National | National | Predicted | |||
| New | New | minus | |||
| Actual | Predicted | Actual | |||
| March | |||||
| TUE | 3 | ||||
| WED | 4 | ||||
| THR | 5 | 50 | 50 | 0 | |
| FRI | 6 | 80 | 66 | -14 | |
| SAT | 7 | 90 | 86 | -4 | |
| SUN | 8 | 110 | 114 | 4 | |
| MON | 9 | 150 | 150 | 0 | |
| TUE | 10 | 200 | 197 | -3 | |
| WED | 11 | 260 | 259 | -1 | |
| THR | 12 | 400 | 340 | -60 | |
| FRI | 13 | 440 | 447 | 7 | |
| SAT | 14 | 659 | 588 | -71 | |
| SUN | 15 | 843 | 773 | -70 | |
| MON | 16 | 880 | 1017 | 137 | |
| TUE | 17 | 1399 | 1337 | -62 | |
| WED | 18 | 2436 | 1758 | -678 | |
| THR | 19 | 4075 | 2312 | -1763 | |
| FRI | 20 | 5570 | 3040 | -2530 | |
| SAT | 21 | 6418 | 3997 | -2421 | |
| SUN | 22 | 8638 | 5257 | -3381 | |
| MON | 23 | 10481 | 6912 | -3569 | |
| TUE | 24 | 15353 | 9090 | -6263 | |
| WED | 25 | 9656 | 11953 | 2297 | |
| THR | 26 | 16873 | 15718 | -1155 | |
| FRI | 27 | 17255 | 20670 | 3415 | |
| SAT | 28 | 20981 | 27181 | 6200 | |
| SUN | 29 | 18378 | 35743 | 17365 | |
| MON | 30 | 21580 | 47002 | 25422 | |
| TUE | 31 | 24672 | 61807 | 37135 | |
| April | 1 | 26214 | 81277 | 55063 | |
| THR | 2 | 29767 | 106879 | 77112 | |
| FRI | 3 | 32154 | 140545 | 108391 | |
More recently I have begin to fit curved to the data as it first plateau and now has begun to climb again. I have used a smooth curve, the average of the last six data points to make my new projections
The first one began on Thursday June 11. When a curve based on 1.025 more cases each day fit well for about ten days, Then the increasing negative numbers which means that the curve is falling short of predicting the real numbers.
| National | Smoothed | National | Predicted | ||
| New | New | New | minus | ||
| Actual | Actual | Predicted | Actual | ||
| June | 1.025 | ||||
| THR | 11 | 23200 | 20433 | 20433 | |
| FRI | 12 | 25400 | 20967 | 20944 | -23 |
| SAT | 13 | 25400 | 21967 | 21467 | -499 |
| SUN | 14 | 19550 | 22308 | 22004 | -304 |
| MON | 15 | 19550 | 22317 | 22554 | 238 |
| TUE | 16 | 24900 | 23000 | 23118 | 118 |
| WED | 17 | 25600 | 23400 | 23696 | 296 |
| THR | 18 | 26800 | 23633 | 24288 | 655 |
| FRI | 19 | 31900 | 24717 | 24896 | 179 |
| SAT | 20 | 31900 | 26775 | 25518 | -1257 |
| SUN | 21 | 26600 | 27950 | 26156 | -1794 |
| MON | 22 | 30400 | 28867 | 26810 | -2057 |
| TUE | 23 | 35100 | 30450 | 27480 | -2970 |
| WED | 24 | 36900 | 32133 | 28167 | -3966 |
| THR | 25 | 41100 | 33667 | 28871 | -4795 |
| FRI | 26 | 48200 | 36383 | 29593 | -6790 |
| SAT | 27 | 42300 | 39000 | 30333 | -8667 |
So my most recent curve based on 1.055 more cases per day begins on Thursday June 18th. Already daily cases are exceeding 40,000 and they are predicted to arise to a hundred thousand by July 16th. So we now have a month rather than a week until we are into catastrophic territory of a hundred thousand new cases a day.
| June | |||||
| THR | 18 | 26800 | 23633 | 23633 | |
| FRI | 19 | 31900 | 24717 | 24933 | 216 |
| SAT | 20 | 31900 | 26775 | 26304 | -471 |
| SUN | 21 | 26600 | 27950 | 27751 | -199 |
| MON | 22 | 30400 | 28867 | 29277 | 410 |
| TUE | 23 | 35100 | 30450 | 30887 | 437 |
| WED | 24 | 36900 | 32133 | 32586 | 453 |
| THR | 25 | 41100 | 33667 | 34378 | 712 |
| FRI | 26 | 48200 | 36383 | 36269 | -114 |
| SAT | 27 | 42300 | 39000 | 38264 | -736 |
| SUN | 28 | 40369 | |||
| MON | 29 | 42589 | |||
| TUE | 30 | 44931 | |||
| july | 1 | 47402 | |||
| THR | 2 | 50010 | |||
| FRI | 3 | 52760 | |||
| SAT | 4 | 55662 | |||
| SUN | 5 | 58723 | |||
| MON | 6 | 61953 | |||
| TUE | 7 | 65361 | |||
| WED | 8 | 68955 | |||
| THR | 9 | 68955 | |||
| FRI | 10 | 72748 | |||
| SAT | 11 | 76749 | |||
| SUN | 12 | 80970 | |||
| MON | 13 | 85424 | |||
| TUE | 14 | 90122 | |||
| WED | 15 | 95079 | |||
| THR | 16 | 100308 |
Jack, some scary statistics. Obviously premature easing of restrictions is a mistake.
ReplyDeleteWhich worries me about our state. We had been going in a good direction, (almost) flattening the curve. Then the PTB decided we're ready for the next phase. We're not.
Locally we had been doing pretty well with a limited, cautious reopening of church. Everyone was being careful, observing distancing, wearing a mask, etc. Except last evening a few people showed up going "commando". My reaction was to instantly feel less safe.
Our priest has been really careful and cautious. But he expressed some frustration that the governor thinks bars and pubs can open and ease restrictions, but churches can't. I understand to an extent. But I hope he isn't getting too antsy. Even if the governor allowed a full reopening, it still isn't safe. I can choose to stay home if I think it is too risky. But my husband is back to assisting at the altar. He could also choose to stay home. But I know he won't, unless I put pressure on him. Which I am prepared to do if necessary.
Elderly churchgoers need deacons to be role models who are willing to stay a home rather than come to church. There is a lot that could be done by phone, e-mail, blogs etc.to encourage the elderly and vulnerable to support one another.
DeleteElderly churchgoers should not look to bars and pubs as models, i.e. we go to church to be sociable.
Jack, I take your point about being role models, but the heart of a deacon is to serve, and because of the nature of restrictions imposed on people for the last 2-3 months, we haven't been able to serve our people very well. If they are gathering, we are going to want to be there to serve them.
DeleteThat is where the heart is. Perhaps the heart shouldn't rule in a situation like this; perhaps it should defer to the head. I'd challenge our top leaders to let us be a little more creative in how we serve people while mitigating risk. For example: doing mass in a parking lot, with people staying in the cars, and the mass streamed to their cell phones. I know that happens in a few places. It's not permitted in the Chicago archdiocese.
Jim, I definitely agree with you about the need for our church leaders to be more creative in how they serve people while mitigating risk. I think there's things we could be doing that we aren't, as well as things we are doing that we shouldn't, because they increase risk.
DeleteProtestants seem to be doing better than we Catholics at thinking outside the box. Not that we want to do anything sacrilegious. But things are too much from the top down.
Re: things are too much from the top down. Yes, I agree. It takes some courage, a certain appetite for risk, to work collaboratively with one's subordinates.
DeleteI wish unagidon were around these days, because he has written perceptively in the past that many problems can be viewed as exercises in risk management. In this case, the church is dealing with two levels of risk:
* Our mission is to serve others and proclaim the Gospel. But doing those things during this time of the coronavirus entails risk, to clergy and to the people whom the clergy are to serve. What level of risk is acceptable? And what mission-oriented activities may permissibly be curtailed in order to mitigate the virus-related risks?
* The second type is what we may term organizational risk: if I am a senior leader, is there a risk to my status and authority - would my authority be undercut - if I work collaboratively, rather than in a command-and-control fashion, with my subordinates? In the corporate culture in which I swim all day, that question would be laughable: we're expected to collaborate with people above and below us, and a person who doesn't collaborate and contribute ideas is looked upon unfavorably. (Not that it's all free and open; there is still a real culture of power that must be navigated. But part of that culture, a healthy part, is collaboration. In my view, this is one of the reasons that large corporations have been so fast off the mark to embrace the movement to eradicate racism and discrimination: corporate leaders are collaborating with subordinates who care about these things.)
If I may say so, it's a little disappointing that the upper reaches of the church have reverted so instinctively to command-and-control during the crisis. Part of that, no doubt, is due to the nature of crises; crises call forth command-and-control responses (which often is perceived as "strong leadership"). There really isn't much reason grounded in experience for me to expect anything different - except for the disjuncture between how contemporary corporations operate vs. how the church operates. Our local parish is quite collaborative - it's one of the reasons I'm so happy with my pastor. But the dictates regarding the coronavirus mostly are coming from a higher level than the pastor.
Jim, I can understand about risk management and the instinct for command and control type of leadership. But what has been mystifying to me is the extent to which ministry has been under lockdown, especially to do with the sacraments. Well, one sacrament in particular. Confession has actually been available all along. Of course it was the old fashioned way, kneeling behind the screen. And wearing a mask. But the Eucharist was restricted to the priest, saying a private Mass. There has been a sign by the tabernacle saying that absolutely no one was allowed to take a host from the tabernacle, for any reason. Not that they could anyway since the priest had the key. During normal times it was no big deal for deacons to make Communion calls to the homebound, or for EMHCs to do that, though normally they did on Sunday. I understand that they want to prevent disrespect. But it does seem that there could have been some outreach, as you mention, through outdoor services or drive-in. Other denominations figured out how to do more of it. I did hear about some stuff that was happening under the radar (not in our parish).
DeleteSeveral states, including California, are closing bars again. Some are also worried about churches because so many clusters of new cases have been traced to churches. Not sure what “commandos “ are in church, but it doesn’t sound good.
ReplyDeleteGoing "commando" usually refers to people not wearing underwear. In this instance I was referring to them not wearing masks. The comparison was probably in poor taste.
DeleteTruth is always in good taste.
DeleteI was wondering if people were bringing assault weapons to church!
DeleteCities need money. They get it from taxes, including taxes paid by businesses. Bars pay taxes, but don't earn revenue to owe taxes unless they are open. Churches don't pay taxes. Younger people who hang out at bars are less likely to need hospitals if they get sick than older people. Church congregations have a lot of gray haired people who might be a bigger burden on the medical system if they get sick than the bar hoppers might be. Need to keep them not sick. So strict reopening rules. Can't the pastor tell people that if they don't wear masks to go home and livestream it?
People do bring their guns to church in Florida and Wisconsin, and, I imagine, many other states. We have one I know about who is banned from Disneyland because his gun fell out of his pocket and was found by staff on one of the rides. It isn't much of a gun.
DeleteI definitely think bishops should flat-out ban Communion-in-the-mouth for the duration. There are four (out of about 40-45) who go up last at daily Mass to spread their droplets to the priest and each other. Dumb! I don't go to Sunday Masses and can't tell on line who is doing what then.
I think we are one call from the insurance company away from re-closing churches in Florida.
My husband says about 99.9% of people receive Communion in the hand in our parish now. Catholic guilt seems to work. The pastor asked the tongue receivers to bring up the rear of the line, said he would have to re-sanitize between recipients. To me it would have been easier just to flat out ban it.
DeleteI think he needs to lean a bit harder on the non-mask wearers. They have so far been few; but they don't make any sense. One of the people I saw come in without a mask was a former transplant patient. Another was a cancer survivor.
Our district's senator (for the state legislature) recently spent 5 weeks in the hospital with Covid. He hadn't been a mask wearer. He now strongly recommends it.
You'd think people's sense of self preservation would kick in more than it does.
Tom, Anthony Fauci is 79. He appears to be healthy and fit. He works more than 60 hours/ week and runs 3 miles/day. He not only would not go to communion now, he says he won’t go to church at all unless mass is outdoors, masks and distancing, mandatory, and no singing. I think you are being sensible.
DeleteI started going back to my gym. I don't know how they stay in business given their low membership. But that, along with a giant room with 10 meter ceilings makes me feel comfortable. They take temperatures at the front desk and have taken other measures on accord with COVID regulations. I clean up with spray and use hand sanitizer after each station. So far, I haven't spotted any others of the grey haired set.
ReplyDeleteAs for church, I may try to go in when they allow in more than 25. Can't be any worse than the gym or supermarket.
Stanley, you might try daily Mass before doing a weekend one. The congregants tend to be fewer in number there, and I haven't seen any non-maskers at our daily Mass.
DeleteGood idea, Katherine.
DeletePeople could treat mask wearing as a necessary bit of physical mortification. No one has a problem with fasting on Good Friday, or the Eucharistic fast. They could view it similarly, and offer it up for those who are ill from the virus.
ReplyDeleteKatherine, the refusal to wear a mask for an hour is a political statement and has little to do with physical mortification. Medical professionals wear them for hours at a time. Perhaps the priests should remind the people that what Jesus taught about loving your neighbor is binding, not Trump's anti-mask crusade that puts those around you at risk.
DeleteAbout Trump's anti-mask crusade, I understand that White House staff has to wear masks around him and are tested for Covid. That just tells me he believes the threat is real. He just doesn't care about others than himself. But we all knew that.
DeleteAgree of course about loving one's neighbor being the prime directive, or part of it. I suggested offering their mask wearing up as prayer for those who still think it is pointless. Of course they probably think that is pointless as well.
Maybe your way would work, Katherine. The type that refuses a mask for political reasons may also among the more conservative Catholic crowd who might do it if they can "offer it up" and pat themselves on the back for their piety.
DeleteAs a certified bully, Trump would be tuned into machismo posturing. I'm sure he sees mask-wearing as sissified.
DeleteI continue to believe that at his core is a frightened little boy.
Just a suggestion. I wish I could schedule my overdue teeth cleaning, haircut and medical checkup on the same day. Then I could get a COVID test prior to this, and it would reduce the chance of spread. And people who provide these services should be tested weekly. If there were enough testing, we could get close to normal while significantly reducing mortality.
ReplyDeleteI read that the Australians are working on a spit test which is much easier that the footlong Q-tip into your sphenoid sinus (exaggerating!). That would increase availability.
DeleteOne of my sisters recently had the Covid test because she wanted to go out to visit our dad. I asked her what it was like, and she said not as bad as childbirth. Not axactly reassuring.
You could try to get your appointments sceduled on the same day. Our experience was that the teeth cleaning has a longer wait list than the others.