Ohio has had a resurging of the virus in its South Western Counties. Below is the Gov DeWine's press conference last Thursday. He used to do these every day. Now he does them about twice a week, usually Tuesday and Thursday. The conference is now about sixty minutes. The first fifteen minutes are mostly about the problem in SW Ohio and contains a series of slides with explanations by someone from the area. Last half are questions from press. You might be amused by his ducking questions about Pence, Trump and Republican legislatures.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine - COVID-19 Update | June 25, 2020
Below the break is my explanation of each slide which you can see
POWER POINT PRESENTATION HERE
SLIDE
#1 BASIC MONITORING SYSTEM
Number of new
cases:
892 last 24 hours vs 294 for 21 day average; the early warning signal but it
has to be interpreted in light of the testing that is increasing being made available.
Deaths 17 versus 21 for
21 day average; this indicator is expected to be last to be effected by the
surge if everything else is working fine.
Hospitalizations 55 versus 57
for 21 day average; this is a measure of how much virus is impacting hospitalization;
this needs to be managed if the normal treatment of other illness is not to be
impacted as it was during the last surge
ICU Admissions 11 versus 13
for 21 day average; an indicator of the
Ohio
declared an emergency the day the first case in Ohio was confirmed. Governor
and Health Director were very proactive, organizing the whole health system
public and private to have all the resources needed, many of which were in
short supply. DeWine emphasize Ohio solutions, i.e. not be dependent on the
foreign supplies or even the national supplies.
SLIDE
#2 Diagnostic Tests Performed and Percent Positivity
Tests
performed and percent positivity. It has taken Ohio a long time to organize all
the resources for testing, including the National Guard. Now that Ohio has the
resources to test all the vulnerable populations, a great deal of emphasis is
being placed on pop-up locations accessible to minorities and poor people. Tests are going up, percent positive is
remaining relatively steady.
SLIDE
#3 Average Age Trends by Month
Shows
that as the testing has spread out beyond the vulnerable population, the
average age is falling as more and more young (and presumable less sick) are
detected.
SLIDE
#4 Hamilton County (Cincinnati) R factor
over time since beginning
An
R factor of “1’ means each person infects one other person. It averaged near 2 persons in the beginning back in March,
plunged below “1” then averaged near “1” but has not gone up to “1.5” So far the other areas of the State have
remained at or below “1”
Ohio strategy
created a manageable plateau of cases but failed to systematically try to
reduce the R factor far below 1. Ohio has been trying to reopen the State in the hopes that when they discover places that
resurge they will be able to control things.
SLIDE
#5 R Values of the 14 Counties the Greater SW Ohio Region
This
is a problem not just for Cincinnati but adjoining counties in Indian and
Kentucky Note that like nationally this is a South and West problem.
My explanation for that is the weather.
Cincinnati gets hot and humid around this time of year. Probably a lot of
indoor socialization to take advantage of air-conditioning just like earlier in
March people were indoors keeping warm. Up until recent days up here in NE Ohio
it has been great outdoor weather. Why go to bars, eating places, or malls? We are now headed into the hot and humid
months; I suspect our R values will climb above “1” like Cincinnati
SLIDE
# 6 Number of Covid 19 patients in Region 6 (South West Ohio) hospitals
Peaked
at end of April, come down during May but is sharply rising in recent days.
SLIDE
#7 Number of Covid- 19 patients in Region 6 ICU units.
Peaked
in April, declined in May but is rising
in recent days.
SLIDE
#8 Age Distribution of Positive COVID 19 Test Results
In
May it was relatively flat across the age distribution, but mid June it has
shifted into a mostly younger people rather than older adults.
SLIDE
#9 Percentage of Test Results Returned
Positive by the Age of the Patient
For those in their twenties, this has averaged
around ten percent until early June when it first went below 10% and has now
increased to above 10%.
For
those in their sixties, the percentage testing positive was above 10% for
April, fell below 10% for May and even further in June.
My explanation of this slide is that people in their sixties are very concerned, are keeping social distance and are getting tested. Those in their 20s are concerned and are getting tested but are not keeping social distance.
My explanation of this slide is that people in their sixties are very concerned, are keeping social distance and are getting tested. Those in their 20s are concerned and are getting tested but are not keeping social distance.
Jack, these are very interesting slides, and your comments and analysis seem reasonable.
ReplyDeleteIf air conditioning turns out to be a curse for the virus - that will be a big cultural change for many folks. Yet air conditioning was far from universal when I was a child; I don't think we had it until I was in high school. I used to spend a lot of summer evenings in the basement where it was cool. I watched and listened to a lot of ball games that way. That would be foreign to my children. Our home doesn't even have a basement!
My bedroom was in the basement for most of my childhood. I liked it for the most part, nice and cool in the summer. I never told my parents what a vantage point it was for listening in on conversations. It was right under the kitchen. Enquiring minds want to know.
DeleteIllinois only publishes statewide statistics, and by zip code. That means I can keep my eye on the statewide trends and the trends for my own local area, but seeing trends for the region (subset) of the state is a good deal more difficult. Illinois is grouped into regions for reopening purposes, but to the best of my knowledge, it doesn't publish these metrics by region, as Ohio did in this press conference.
ReplyDeleteIn Illinois, our infections fell through most of May and June, and then flattened, and are now starting to uptick again. I attribute most of that to the state's first phases of reopening. I suppose it's expected that the rate of infections will increase, but the hope is that it will be a containable threat.
All my kids are home for the summer, so we're riding out the virus as a family. It's a bit crowded in the home, but we're able to provide a support system for one another. We're not quarantined but for the most part we're staying in. One family member has to leave home to work, at a hospital, but does not get a lot of hours - is gone about twice a week. My wife and I both can work from home. Another of my kids is a school teacher so she's off work for the summer. The two in college had been hoping for internships this summer but most internships are canceled so they're just being summer bums around the house. I'm probably out and about the most because our food pantry and Outreach-related ministries have continued to operate.
ReplyDeleteIf you're a young single person living in an apartment by yourself or with roommates, I would guess that the wish and urge to get out of the home and go socialize would be a good deal higher than it is for us. I suspect this is why infections of young adults are increasing so rapidly in the South and West.