Adapted from NYT
Georgia counts
fast (but watch the vote margin). 7PM
Most Georgia voters tend to vote early in person, and
vote reporting is usually relatively fast. The share of ballots cast by mail,
which can often take longer to count, is expected to be small. The mail voting
rate returned to the state’s usual level of around 6 percent in 2022 after
growing to about 25 percent in 2020.
The state could still be counting corrected mail ballots,
overseas ballots and provisional ballots in the days after the election.
North Carolina
counts fast (with new rules). 7:30Pm
Early, in-person voting is very popular, and votes are
typically counted very quickly, with 98 to 99 percent of votes reported by
midnight Eastern time in the last two major elections. New rules mean that
early voting results will no longer be reported immediately at poll close time,
but mail ballots are now due on Election Day (in 2020, ballots postmarked by
Election Day had nine days to arrive).
Pennsylvania is
likely to take longer than election night. 8PM
It takes longer to count votes in Pennsylvania, primarily
because election workers are not allowed to start processing mail ballots until
Election Day. Still, vote counting sped up significantly from 2020 to 2022, in
part because of new, faster equipment and a requirement that most counties
continue counting mail ballots without stopping after polls close, including
through the night.
Democrats have been much more likely to vote by mail. In
the 2020 presidential race, after an initial batch of heavily Democratic votes,
the reported tally favored Mr. Trump until more mail ballots were counted, and
Mr. Biden’s margins increased.
Michigan could be
faster than in the past. 8-9 PM
In the past two general elections, about half of the
votes in Michigan were counted by midnight Eastern time, and the bulk of
remaining votes were counted by noon the next day. But the state has passed
major reforms that could speed things up: It newly implemented nine days of
early in-person voting, and it now allows counties to begin processing mail
ballots before Election Day (though not all places plan to take advantage of
the new rule).
Mail ballots — which have been more likely to be cast by
Democrats — came in slowly over time in 2020. This contributed to a "red
mirage" showing Mr. Trump ahead in the reported tally before all mail
ballots had been counted. That pattern did not hold in the 2022 election for
governor, and it is unclear how new pre-processing rules will affect the order
of votes reported.
Wisconsin is
likely to finish most counting Wednesday. 9 PM
Poll workers cannot begin processing ballots until
Election Day, but they are required to count through the night until they are
finished. In some jurisdictions, including Milwaukee, absentee ballots are
counted at a central facility and are reported in large batches. A state
official told CNN that full, unofficial results are not likely until the
morning after the election.
In 2020, Mr. Trump was ahead in the reported vote until
the final results came in, including thousands of ballots from heavily
Democratic Milwaukee. This “red mirage” in the results contributed to
conspiracy theories about Mr. Biden’s victory. That pattern did not repeat in
2022.
Arizona could take
days.
First results typically come in around 10 p.m. Eastern
time, an hour after polls close. Most voters cast ballots by mail, and counting
typically takes awhile. While poll workers are allowed to process those ballots
that arrive before Election Day upon receipt, they must wait until after polls
close to process the ones that arrive on Election Day.
Two things could contribute to longer waits this year.
Officials are now required to count and report the number of ballots dropped
off on Election Day before beginning to process them. And in the state’s largest
county, Maricopa, there are so many contests that the ballot is two pages,
which means more paper to tabulate. Officials there said full results could
take 10 to 13 days.
Nevada could take
days.
In recent elections, about half of Nevada voters have
cast ballots by mail, and counting usually takes awhile. Counting could be
faster than in the past because of new technology and a rule that allows
officials to tabulate ballots sooner. But postmarked ballots are allowed to
arrive up to four days after the election, on Nov. 9, and voters have until
Nov. 12 to address mistakes with their ballots.
