A New York Times weekend briefing enewsletter which landed in my email box yesterday contains this disquieting bit of news:
All vaccines still seem to provide a significant degree of protection against serious illness from Omicron, which is the most crucial goal. But only the Pfizer and Moderna shots, when reinforced with a booster, appear to have success at stopping infections, and these vaccines are unavailable in most of the world. |
The other shots — including AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and vaccines made in China and Russia — do little to nothing to stop the spread of Omicron, early research shows. The gap could have a profound impact on the course of the pandemic. |
More details here.
My thoughts:
1. Everything reported on this topic must include the qualifier: this is based on preliminary data. Much still needs to be studied and confirmed before we know any of this with certainty. That said:
2. Omicron is a breakthrough variant. Even those of us who consider ourselves fully vaccinated are susceptible. To be sure, being vaccinated appears to provide good (but not perfect) protection from illness that would be sufficiently serious to require hospitalization. But it doesn't prevent us from becoming infected - and passing the virus along to people with whom we interact. We in the US are blessed in that the two vaccines which are most widely used, Pfizer and Moderna, also seem to provide good protection against infection. But those vaccines don't provide perfect protection against infection. And it seems there are no other vaccines, anywhere, which provide comparable protection against infection from Omicron.
3. This situation, if confirmed, brings into stark relief the controversial topic of vaccine inequality. It seems we might divide the population into three groups:
- Those who are unvaccinated. This group is extremely vulnerable
- Those who are vaccinated but with vaccines which don't provide good protection against infection from Omicron. This group seems to have significant protection against serious illness, but little or no protection against becoming infected (perhaps without even being aware), and spreading it to others
- Americans who are vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna, and those overseas who are fortunate enough to have been vaccinated with those manufacturers' vaccines. Within the US, that is a sizeable (although perhaps not critical-mass) percentage of the population, but taken as a percentage of the worldwide population, it's a tiny fraction who possess this significant protection against infection.
All this is preliminary. Unfortunately, by the time we understand everything, it will likely be too late to do anything.
ReplyDeleteThe US is not hoarding a vaccine that will help other countries avoid hospitalization and death. All the other vaccines seem to be able to do that.
We are hoarding vaccines that will make experiencing an infection easier. Like always our lives are made easier than the rest of the world. Nothing new in that.
I wonder what the side effects of the vaccines other than Pfizer and Moderna are? Some people I know have experienced such bad side effects that they are wondering if getting a mild case of the virus might be easier.
What seems to be certain is that we are going to have a lot of people at least mildly sick with the Omicron virus. That could be a real disruption to our economy. Perhaps mitigating that, especially if people able to work from home might have a positive effect on the world economy.
What is less clear is the effect of Omicron on the unvaccinated. If a lot of them become hospitalized and die it could have a very bad effect upon our health care system. If all the unvaccinated suddenly are faced with hospitalization and death, they have very little alternative than to withdraw from the economy for the month probably two until two vaccinations keep them safe from hospitalization
Moderna and Pfizer have short shelf lives and have to be kept within temperature parameters. Exporting the vax is a logistical challenge a bit like trying to ship frozen meat to a starving country halfway around the world that doesn't have adequate storage or distribution.
ReplyDeleteExporting vaccine is also not going to sit well with the America First crowd, even if you try to explain that to protect Americans, you have to protect the rest of the world. My guess is that they already think that producing the vaccine to begin with was a vast waste of taxpayer money, that exporting it on the public dime is a bigger waste of money, and if we are truly worried that covid is not just a vast government hoax, we should just close the borders.
I presume that a lot of our stockpiling is hope against the day when those who have burrowed deep into their black holes of conspiracy with their tubes of Ivermectin and bottles of hydroxychloroquine might eventually wake up to reality that we are two years into this pandemic, 800,000 people are dead, and the virus is happily adapting and thriving despite what we throw at it.
Interesting demographic breakdown of which Americans have and have not been vaccinated: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-poll-shows-demographic-breakdown-vaccinated-u-s-n1277514
All that said, I wholeheartedly agree that common decency requires us to share with other countries without access to the vaccine and to work with them on distribution.
Meantime, I will be interested to hear what Uncle Joe has to tell us tomorrow about ramped up efforts to relieve the burden on hospitals as Omicron gets ready to hit. Michigan has been in its fourth surge since Labor Day. Hospitals have been at capacity since Thanksgiving. Early on in the pandemic, auxiliary hospitals were set up to take the overflow. We need those now, and we need doctors and nurses to staff temporary facilities.
Last point (sorry for banging on): We need to address the growing rage of the vaccinated against those who refuse to get vaccinated or take precautions. I am hearing serious talk from some of my friends that we should not let unvaccinated people into hospitals, no matter how sick they are. There is a growing feeling that we should let people die of their own stupidity. Wait times for things like biopsies and knee replacements are long because the hospitals are full of covid.
But I think common decency also calls us to try to fight that "let 'em die" attitude. If nothing else, when people see first-hand how serious covid is, they often change their minds about vaccination and precautions.
"But I think common decency also calls us to try to fight that "let 'em die" attitude."
DeleteMe too, Jean. Deciding who is "deserving" of health care is a slippery slope. Because where do we stop? There are already enough people who think health care is something that has to be earned.
I agree with both of you. COVID vaccination is a pro-life issue!
Delete... and I understand the president also said today it is a patriotic duty. I agree with that, too. (And I'm grateful we have a president who doesn't fear to summon words like "patriotic" and "duty").
DeleteEarly on in the pandemic, auxiliary hospitals were set up to take the overflow.
ReplyDeleteThose were the days when we were mostly in lockdown, and the virus was spreading only in certain places. We are no longer in lockdown and the virus is going to spread everywhere. We will not be able to get hospital staff from somewhere else because there is not going to be a somewhere else.
Just getting people period is an increasing problem. For the last several weeks the pharmacist has been answering the phone at the pharmacy. When I went to the drive-up window, a staff member was there taking care of phone calls. A sign apologized for long waits because they were understaffed. How are we going to run things when everyone is at home sick with Omicron.
The feds have sent teams here to try to take pressure off the largest Michigan hospital systems inundated with covid. Efforts like these will be difficult to sustain if hospitals get swamped with covid nationwide. https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/11/feds-sending-teams-to-grand-rapids-dearborn-to-support-over-burdened-hospital-staff-amid-covid-surge.html
DeleteIt's been three weeks since I received notice that the home medical equip.ent supplier was processing my APAP machine order. Since then, crickets. I'm assuming they have staffing problems, too.
DeleteNurses continue to exodus from hospitals, going into travelling nurse jobs. Not good for Operating Room team building. It's not the COVID. It's the big medical networks taking over and applying business practices to something that isn't a business.
Twelve hour shifts that hospital nurses work would get to me. I know some people like them because you work four and get three days off. But on the days you work, sleep and eat is pretty much all you could do at home. Unless you had a stay at home spouse, it wouldn't leave much time for your kids, if you have any.
DeleteStanley, yes, there are lags due to staff shortages, as I and my decrepit friends have learned! Getting a knee replacement takes months to schedule. I was able to get an ultrasound for an enlarged thyroid at our little local satellite hospital within a week of my oncology appointment. But the biopsy had to be done at the main hospital, and it took six weeks to get a date. Had the ultrasound looked more dire, I would have gotten in quicker, the tech told me, so I actually felt happy that they didn't think I was an emergency. That these folks can still treat you with reassurance, kindness, and answer all your questions in the middle of all this is a marvel to me. There must surely be a place for them in heaven! (Thyroid not cancerous, but I will need follow up after the holidays.)
DeleteGlad it turned out for the best, Jean. Yes, if the nurses are mad at anyone, it's the system, not the patients. I'm sure any show of appreciation and patience is welcomed by them.
DeleteI am more upset with all those who want us to go on as if things were normal, including many of the vaccinated, than I am about the unvaccinated. It is our desire to do business as usual that has gotten us into this problem. If we had continued lockdowns and various restrictions the unvaccinated might have felt that there is a reason to get vaccinated. We have many politicians who are eager to declare victory rather than continue to wage war against the virus.
ReplyDeleteRealistically there is a limit as to how long lockdowns are even possible.
DeleteYes, I agree that lockdowns cannot be sustained after a certain point. And it's not fair to expect healthy boosted young people to assume the same isolation as old people with immune problems.
DeleteIn fact, as an old person with immune problems, I am happy that Raber still works a few days a week and can bring him news of the larger world. Makes us both feel less isolated.
I have been following this story for a while:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/12/16/2353592/0/en/Vaxart-to-Test-Cross-Reactivity-of-its-COVID-19-Oral-Tablet-Vaccine-Against-Omicron.html
This is an oral vaccine given as a pill. If it is approved it would be a godsend against the virus. No refrigeration would be required, lending itself to distribution in less-developed locations. Not to mention that it may be more acceptable to the vax-hesitant or needle phobic people. It seems like every single news item promoting vaccination shows someone with a needle in their arm. I think that is counter productive.
It is hoped that this oral vaccine would be more effective against the variants, since it has multiple targets on the virus.
" It seems like every single news item promoting vaccination shows someone with a needle in their arm. I think that is counter productive."
DeleteI agree that the needle-phobic are one set of the vax resisters. Maybe they're trying to show, "If this person on TV can get a needle in their shoulder without flinching, you can, too!"
I think a good alternative would be someone smiling and wearing their "I got my Covid-19 shot" sticker.
DeleteWould be interested in other reactions to Biden's speech:
ReplyDelete--1,000 military doctors and nurses = 20 per state. Not nearly enough to take pressure off.
--FEMA to ramp up aux hospitals and ambulances, but the key will be whether these can be set up ahead of expected surges.No concrete details there.
--The government to provide 500 million rapid home testing kits (sounds like we will have to order on line, pay, then seek reimbursement from insurance) in addition to increased test sites. Having a couple of home test kits will be handy, but they will not be available until Jan 1, and then you'll have to wait for delivery.
--Increased vax sites where demand is highest. Not sure what this means. If demand is higher in Blue states does this leave Red states high and dry?
--Biden does not sound good. He stumbles over words, coughs, and basically sounds like a sick old man. This does not give people confidence. He would do better to make opening remarks and let VP Harris give the text of the speech.
There are stacks of test kits in the supermarket here. They aren't free, about 29 bucks each (there are two tests per kit). Maybe you can get reimbursed by insurance, I don't know.
DeleteRealistically there's not that much the government can do at this point. Even if Biden sounds old (because he is) I think he is still better received than Harris, whom people don't have the warm fuzzies for.
I got 2-pack Binax test kits from Walmart for $14.
DeleteI suspect availability is a function of location. Nebraska is a trump state. Lower vax rates. I tried to get some test kits last week- sold out at every pharmacy, Walmart etc. They could be ordered for delivery, but too late for us. We fly to California today, as the surge begins. We are boosted, Moderna, and literally pray that this will protect us. The family in California are self isolating because of two under- fives. The Google son has very high quality tests at his house, courtesy of Google which has provided an electronic device for swab analysis along with an app and a monthly supply of tests for all employees. Additional tests available on request. Even Amazon couldn’t get them to us fast enough. Low spread so far in LA and Slicon Valley. Te danger will be in the airport terminals. I received some plastic visors yesterday as extra protection in the airport.,Dr. Fauci says that they help some in close quarters as long as the kn95 mask is also worn. I have noticed that in my many trips to Johns Hopkins in the last three months that all the docs and nurses who had to be close to me wore them visors over their masks. My husband is high risk if he were to be infected, but he doesn’t want to cancel the trip. It’s the first time in 7 years that all of us will gather for Christmas. Prayers welcome,
DeleteHarris comes off as an ambitious hot shot. To take the gender dimension out of the equation, I sense AOC and Warren as being sincere doers and would vote for either one in a femtosecond.
DeleteAnne, have a trip safe protected in every way.
Prayers for safe travels, Anne. It sounds like you're doing everything you can to stay healthy.
DeleteStanley, I agree that Harris is as appealing as cold boiled potatoes. But Joe can not win re-election at this doddering pace. The Dems better start pumping her up as the heir apparent or it will be another Cavalcade of Weirdos confusing people in the Dem primary. And that will ensure a second Trump term.
DeleteMeantime check out Katie Porter from California talking to the CEO of JP Morgan. She is my new BFF in Congress. One of Warren's proteges.