UPDATE
Covid-19 cases are surging in 46 states.
In 45 states, the rates of new cases this past week are at least 10% higher than the rates of new cases the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In 34 states, new cases this past week are at least 50% higher than new cases the previous week.
ALSO: after going over 30,000 cases on Friday and Monday, we went over 40,000 cases yesterday. That is a rather fast rate of increase.
The decline of the virus continued until mid June when it stagnated much as it had in March when the Beta variant took over. Now that the Delta variant is taking over we are also seeing a slow jagged rise just as we also saw in March.
US records 20,000 new COVID cases for the third day in a row
Quotes and Summary
The U.S. has recorded more than 20,000 new daily cases of COVID-19 for the third day in a row, a threshold that has not been crossed since May.Health officials say that the fast-spreading Delta variant first identified in India is racing through areas with low vaccination rates, eroding gains made in beating back the virus.On Friday, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases was up 47 percent from two weeks ago, and hospitalizations were up 11 percent, according to a DailyMail.com analysis of U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.
Around 93 percent of COVID-19 cases in recent days have occurred in counties with vaccination rates of less than 40 percent. Preliminary data suggest 99.5 percent of recent COVID-19 deaths have occurred in unvaccinated people.
The Delta variant of COVID-19 has become the dominant strain in the United States, accounting for more than half of all new cases In Missouri, the Delta variant now accounts for 96 percent of all new cases, and producing a dangerous surge in the southwest part of the state.
Parts of central and northwest Arkansas are also seeing a surge in new cases. On Friday, Arkansas added more than 1,000 coronavirus cases for the third day in a row, as the state topped the nation in new cases per capita.
Wall Street's main indexes fell on Thursday as the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant cast doubts over an economic recovery.
Jeff Zients, the leader of the White House's COVID-19 response team, said the spread of the Delta variant is particularly dangerous to young people. Research suggests it may cause more severe disease among younger people than other variants of the coronavirus. The United States is seeing outbreaks of COVID-19 at summer camps and other community events.
My Opinion
It looks like this stagnation/instability due to the Delta variant will average out around one percent which is what my midway projection gives in the following post. However it is possible that all the gains that we have had since May could still be wiped out resulting in my worst case scenario.
I will do a post mortem on the above predictions sometime in August or September once it becomes clear where we are, e.g. that we have resumed a decline, or are continuing to stagnate, or even worse have gone into another surge.
The beginnings of a new surge are taking place in the lower Mississippi valley which is the most vulnerable part of the country in terms of vaccination rates. Of course when the virus picks up speed it will spread elsewhere finding pockets of lower vaccination in nearby states.
Here in Ohio our vaccination rate is lower than the Eastern seaboard and the national average but higher than the lower Mississippi valley. There are slight upticks statewide, including the Cleveland area. So far our continuing decline has been halted but a new local surge has not yet begun.
Nationwide we are beginning to experience the results of the lifting of restrictions around June 1st. That resulted in stagnation by June 15. We are likely beginning to see the results of the July 4th holiday and all the travel that takes place in the first week of July (it is a popular time for vacations). We have the possibility of increased activity during the dog days of summer when people head indoors for air conditioning. Then there is all the travel during late August as college classes resume around the country. By September 11th we were beginning the great fall-winter surge of last year.
So far our nation has been very willing to tolerate huge numbers of deaths, mostly among the elderly. However the Delta variant appears to be more dangerous to young adults. Will the economy be able to absorb the deaths of 600,000 young adults? Or an even more frightening possibility! What happens if a future variant begins to kill children? Will we be able to absorb the deaths of 600,000 children?
Clearly the USA has prioritized the economy over the deaths of the elderly. Will that economy continue to prosper if those deaths shift to young adults and children? Stay tuned, stay safe, and prepare for worst case scenarios. The government will not protect us from them.
My PA COVID app reflects Jack's assessment. The graph shows the infection rate bottoming out and now there's a small but obvious uptick. PA is a relatively well vaccinated state but still stands around 55%, much lower than herd immunity. It must be pointed out that the world, especially the third world is hardly vaccinated. While the vaccination deficit in the United States is bad due to American stupidity, the mutation factory worldwide is still going full blast. Looks like the drug companies may have a good cash cow in their barn.
ReplyDelete"Looks like the drug companies may have a good cash cow in their barn."
DeleteYes the reason that the drug companies make all their money is that we Americans are so stupid. Stupid about all the behaviors that we could do that would avoid their drugs. Stupid about when we should or should not be taking their drugs.
"Clearly the USA has prioritized the economy over the deaths of the elderly."
ReplyDeleteJack, I am not sure I agree. As I understand it, the elderly are among our most-vaccinated demographics. I think the public health authorities, at all levels of government, did a very good job in making the elderly the first priority for vaccination, and working to get them vaccinated. I believe the vaccination of the elderly is one of the success stories of the government's response to the pandemic. What are your thoughts?
FWIW, I also think that the governments' response (bearing in mind that there are many levels and entities of government which have responsibility in fighting the pandemic), while it is somewhat mixed, has, on the whole, been fairly responsible; and that the variations in government responses - some mandating mask-wearing, some not; some opening earlier, some opening later; and so on - hasn't been the primary determinant of our nation's experience with the coronavirus.
I would argue that the primary determinant has been our culture. Our society shut down, more or less on its own and spontaneously, a year ago during the late winter and early spring months, as fear of the virus took hold in people's imagination. Whatever government lockdowns occurred happened after the economy already had shut down spontaneously.
The great event which has changed the narrative of the pandemic - so far - has been the development, approval, manufacture and distribution of vaccines. Government played a major role in these developments, but so did private enterprise, and so did the culture. Our early success in vaccinations wouldn't have happened if large sections of our society were not eager to get vaccinated.
Now, our largest challenge is people who refuse to get vaccinated - which surely is a cultural problem. So far, the government, despite the right intentions, a good deal of will and determination, and even some creativity, has not succeeded in overcoming the cultural resistance.
Personally, I think, if we are to turn this last corner in defeating COVID-19, the culture, not the government, will have to change. How does one change a culture? I don't know. If Donald Trump became a vaccination evangelist, would that be the catalyst? Perhaps - but that is exceedingly unlikely to happen. Unless we are willing to mandate vaccinations, even to those who are unwilling, I don't know how we solve this problem.
We mandate many vaccines. My grandchildren get far more vaccinations than my children, their parents, were given in infancy and during the preschool years. I have not heard of any credible evidence that these mandated childhood vaccines have resulted in significant numbers of injuries. There are some, just as many adults have serious allergic reactions to some medications.
DeleteShould vaccines be mandated as a public health measure just as measles polio, etc vaccines are mandated? Millions and millions of people have received the Covid vaccines without problems. Perhaps mandates are needed. I read this morning that in Missouri the number of cases is the highest it’s been since the beginning of the pandemic but now it’s the delta variant and it’s hitting young adults hard. A doctor there said that now most of the ICU patients are younger than in the previous wave ( 20s, 30s, 40s) and that 90% of the Covid patients n the ICU require ventilators, a far higher percentage than in the previous waves.
The reason we are not mandating vaccines is that they are being used under emergency provision. Once they are fully approved probably sometime this fall governments and other entities can begin to require them.
DeleteCompanies and other entities have been told that they have a great deal of legal liability if they mandate a vaccine for employees or customers. Basically the companies have to prove the vaccine is safe. Once it gets full approval by the FDA they no longer have to do that. So once full approval is obtained a lot of entities may be in the position of being liable for employees or customers who are not vaccinated. They may come under strong pressure to require vaccinations.
I agree re: we mandate a number of vaccinations already. To the best of my knowledge, that mandate applies to children as a condition of being enrolled in school. Obviously, as a public health measure, it's very successful. It also has the advantages of being a "captive audience", as children's need to attend school is nearly universal; and it has a built-in support network, as parents, healthcare providers, teachers, school administrators and others in the community all want the children to be vaccinated.
DeleteI am not thinking of any large-scale programs, at least during my lifetime, which require adults to be vaccinated. I think we're entering new territory here. Perhaps there are immigration requirements, that an immigrant can't be admitted to reside in the US, without certain vaccinations. (Naturally, those who enter illegally would skirt those requirements.)
We were required to get a smallpox vaccine many years ago when we went to Japan. We also had smallpox vaccines as kids. And polio. I think those were the only available vaccines here then! I also got a hepatitis vaccine before traveling to the Dominican Republic to visit our sister parish in the poorest part of the country. It was optional though, recommended but not required. A friend who had lived in Ecuador got hepatitis from the water and she recommended that I get the vaccine. One of my sons has worked in Africa on and off. He received some other vaccines then, some required to enter the country, and also got a prescription for an anti-malaria drug, which was optional. Another son lived and traveled in Asian countries on and off for a few years ( lived in China, Korea and Taiwan, travel in Cambodia, non- westernized China, and Thailand) and he was vaccinated against several diseases. I don’t remember if they were required or just recommended. So many Americans don’t travel outside the US, and may not realize that vaccines are viewed as a godsend still in many countries. And are required in many countries also!
DeleteI also got vaccinated several years ago before traveling to India. Like the COVID vaccine, at least one or two of them required two doses. They also equipped me with meds (a Z pack, I think) in the event the food would make me ill. It did; and the Z pack worked like magic!
Delete