Besides making projections about the Decline of the Virus on the National Level
Will the Current USA Pandemic Incidence Continue to Decline?
I have also doing that for Lake County
Lake County is now down to 198 new cases in the last
fourteen days, we have over 200,000 people so we are now under 100/100,000. I assume people are active that is able to spread the virus for about fourteen days. However about 200 cases means that there are
likely at least three times that amount and maybe ten times that amount, so a
potential 600 to 2000 active cases in the county.
If we continue downward at the present rate we would have
about
115 known cases in the last fourteen days before July 4th
potential 345 to 1150 cases in
this suburban county.
60 known cases in the
last fourteen days before August 6th potential 180 to 600 cases.
We like to celebrate this day with the
local Orthodox community, a well done Divine Liturgy with not that many people.
But looks like it will be too risky.
32 known cases in the
last fourteen days before Labor Day, potential 96 to 320 cases We also like to go to the Orthodox Church
for the Nativity of Mary (September 8th), and Exultation of the Holy
Cross (September 14). Again probably too risky
Fourth Mondays of September, October and November are likely
dates for our Commonweal local community to reassemble. We would like to be able go to Mass at the
local parish the Sunday before. Just might be possible.
21 known cases in the last fourteen days before the fourth
Monday of September, potential 63 to210 cases
We think the department will be able to resume contact
tracing somewhere between 21 and 12 cases, i.e. about 2 to 3 per day. Of course once that is done, the known cases
will expand and we will get closer to the true number of active cases.
12 known cases in the last fourteen days before the fourth
Monday of October, potential 36 to 120 cases
6 known cases in the last fourteen days before the fourth
Monday of November, potential 18 to 60 cases
MEETING THE GOAL OF
70 PERCENT VACCINATED
Massachusetts at 79% has surpassed the goal
Connecticut at 76% has surpassed the goal
New Jersey at 74% has surpassed the goal
Pennsylvania at 71% has surpassed the goal
Maryland at 70% has surpassed the goal
New York 68% 9 days to 70%
Michigan 60% 2 months August 1st
Ohio 57% 2 months August 1st
Indiana 53% 3 months September 1st
West Virginia 49% 4 months October 1st
We are a red state next to the blues states on the East and
red states to the South and West.
Despite DeWine’s lottery we will probably not get to seventy percent
until August. Hopefully he will have
enough of a push on getting kids vaccinated that we will be in good shape by
September.
We just had the Memorial Day restart, State of Ohio restrictions have been lifted, and our parishes are
restarting this Sunday. No more mask or
seating restrictions. Choir and people
may sing without masks. However there
will be signs encouraging people to wear masks if they have not been vaccinated
or wish to be more precautious.
So if Ohio stalls out, the stall may begin in the next two
weeks. That could push back any plans for me to restart Mass attendance the fourth
week of September. Of course when
September starts things could also stall because of unvaccinated kids and
college students. And then people will
be gathering indoors beginning in October (and return of school events) and
then the Holiday season.
A lot will depend upon variants. One in India is supposed to spread more quickly than the British variant and now is supposed to be taking over in England. An even more spreadable Viet Nam variant is rumored after that. The spread of variants in the US is likely to be retarded in the Blue states in comparison with the Red states.
Went to my first post-pandemic dance Tuesday night with a vaccinated partner. They recommended everyone stick with a partner, but that was generally ignored. No group lessons yet due to rotation of partners but starting again in August. It felt strange to dance after a fourteen month hiatus. The basic moves were still there but it took a while to retrieve some of the fancier ones.
ReplyDeleteThe PA infection and death graphs have a strong downward trend. Hopefully, we can crash this pandemic.
Our state was doing well with vaccinations, but now we have plateaued at a little over 50% for adults 18 and older. There are some people who are "anti-vax". But more are vaccine hesitant, and those are the ones who are harder to understand. Was talking to someone yesterday who doesn't think he needed it because he thinks he had Covid last year. I asked him if he had been tested for antibodies. He said no. They were offering the Moderna on site where he works, but he hadn't taken advantage. He didn't seem to really have a reason, just felt he didn't need to, even though he was planning an international trip late in the summer. My guess is he will have to be vaccinated in order to travel. The bottom line is that other people are protecting him by being vaccinated, but he is unwilling to pass the favor along to protect those less healthy than himself. Multiply that by a lot of people and it will be hard to reach herd immunity.
ReplyDeleteI am reading that now they think having had Covid may be more protective than had originally been predicted, which may help some with herd immunity.