Monday, May 18, 2020

Some miscellaneous coronavirus reading

Three things I read recently which piqued my interest:

1.  We're being gradedFrom the Chicago Tribune:
Residents of Chicago and the surrounding Cook County suburbs are now getting a D in social distancing from a New York City data firm that’s been grading the country on compliance with stay-at-home orders.
That’s a significant drop from late March, when the area got an A, but the difference is more about revisions to the grading system than a huge change in behavior. Unacast, the firm drawing the measurements from a sampling of cellphone data, toughened its criteria based on input from public health experts ...
Unacast decided to start measuring counties and states against what happened in Italy during the height of that country’s lockdown ...
Unacast is giving out A’s only to areas in the U.S. where travel has been curtailed by more than 70%. In Italy, travel dropped by between 70% and 80% during its lockdown.
Over recent weeks, Cook County travel reductions measured in the 25% to 40% range, as measured against the amount of travel that was occurring before Pritzker’s order. That earns a D under the new, tougher grading scale. Illinois earned the same grade ...
New York and San Francisco, by contrast, saw travel reductions of 55% to 70%, which earned those cities a B. Los Angeles earned a D, as did Michigan’s Wayne County, where Detroit is located.

2.  We can test more.  Whereas a month ago, the unavailability of coronavirus tests was one of the most urgent problems in the crisis, today the script seems to have flipped, and some states have unused testing capacity. From National Review's News Editor Roundup newsletter:
 “We now have more testing capacity than New Yorkers are using,” New York governor Andrew Cuomo wrote on Twitter on Sunday. “We need to use our full testing capacity as we reopen. If you have COVID symptoms or have been in contact with someone with COVID — get a test.” The same dynamic persists in California, which has the capacity to test 100,000 people per day but is averaging roughly 40,000 tests daily. Public health experts speculated in comments to the Washington Post that people with mild symptoms have proven unwilling to get tested because they are still heeding the weeks-old advice of public health officials who stressed the importance of saving all available tests for frontline workers and those with severe symptoms ...
Harvard researchers have estimated that the U.S. must test around 900,000 people daily, or roughly eight percent of the population per month, to safely reopen. But the country is currently testing just 330,000 people daily, according to the Covid Tracking Project
Now that apparently there is excess testing capacity, I'd like to see more states actively reaching out and testing random samples of residents, whether or not they are symptomatic; this would seem to be the best way to baseline how widespread the virus actually is.

3.  The Remotes against the Exposed.  In an astute bit of distinction-drawing, Bret Stephens in the New York Times groups us into the haves, whom he calls the the Remotes, and the have-nots, whom be dubs the Exposed:
A recent study by Jonathan Dingel and Brent Neiman of the University of Chicago found that 37 percent of jobs in the U.S. can be performed from home. The Remote are, disproportionately, knowledge workers, mostly well educated, generally well paid. Their professional networks, and many of their personal ones, too, are with people who also work remotely.
That leaves the other roughly two-thirds. Call them “Exposed.” They include everyone — shop owner, waiter, cabdriver, sales associate, factory worker, nanny, flight attendant, and so on — for whom physical presence is a job requirement. They are, typically, less well educated, less well paid.
For the Remote, the lockdowns of the past two months have been stressful. For the Exposed, they have been catastrophic. For the Remote, another few weeks of lockdown is an irritant. For the Exposed, whose jobs are disappearing by the millions every week, it is a terror. For the Remote, Covid-19 is the grave new risk. For the exposed, it’s one of several. For the Remote, an image on the news of cars forming long lines at food banks is disconcerting. For the Exposed, that image is — or may very soon be — the rear bumper in front of you.
I am one of the Remotes.  I would say that "irritant" understates some of the pain of the shutdown so far - the loss of mass and the sacraments is more than a minor irritant - but on the whole, it's not entirely off-base, either.  My wife and I are still employed, and my family is keeping our lives in flight from our home base.  We wish things were more open, but we'll be okay.  It's salutary to be reminded that we have it much, much better than many others.  We should be giving thanks every day.

16 comments:

  1. One of the problems with the cell phone data is that it looks only at mile's traveled. We live in a rural area and take two or three drives a week just to see the birds and springtime countryside. We are enclosed in our car, not getting out to frolic with other people.

    Eyes on the ground are really a better indicator of social distancing in some areas.

    Ha! The "haves" just now stopped obsessing about their missed hair cuts and grey roots, and figured out that their health and financial risks are lower than those of the poor schlubs delivering their naan bread and organic kale. What an insight!

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    1. I'm also sorry about your son being laid off.

      Yes, I think it's quite possible, considering the bubbles of the like-minded and like-living in which most of us live, that it is new news to many Remotes who read the NY Times Opinion page that 2/3 of the country is facing a different reality.

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  2. Jean, I just read your comment elsewhere about your son being laid off. So far our kids are doing OK - two sons and wives are "remotes" in secure jobs. One daughter-in-law is working remotely also, for a company that is shaky but looks like it will survive. Fingers crossed. She is a senior account manager and had base salary reduced to 60% and no commissions, but they survived. (No commuting meant no high LA gasoline bills. A big savings!) The company did lay off all their admin and support staff. Don't know if they are starting to rehire for those jobs. Her husband, my son the freelancer, is doing full-time childcare, shopping and cooking now (they have a 6 year old and a 2 month old). Looking for jobs, but little hope right now. But they are covered through his wife's employment for health insurance.

    I hope that your son's company can re-open soon and begin rehiring those they have laid off. The health insurance issue is HUGE and I hope that he is covered at least for a while, until he is re-hired.

    Prayers ascending!

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  3. This isn't about me and my woes, though of course I am concerned for The Boy. But he knows we are there for moral and financial support as needed. He will be OK, and, hopefully, learn some lessons about how Real Life works.

    His ex-wife, last we heard, was living in a rehab facility in San Francisco, but we have no idea where she is now. Neither does her awful family, and they don't seem to care.

    If we don't have enough imagination to see how health and financial problems affect those outside our bubbles, we might well have proved Margaret Thatcher's belief that "There is no such thing as society."

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  4. Our older son and his wife are among the "remotes". They have no children, and are professionals who can work from home for the most part.
    Our younger son and his family are a combination of remote and exposed. Which means they are exposed. Son is on the staff of a school which is teaching remotely at present, and he is working from home. His wife is a home based daycare provider. All of the children she is caring for right now have parents who are in jobs considered essential. Plus they have three kids of their own. I know they are being as careful as they can be. But they are vulnerable. Just praying for all of them now.

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  5. You can't get more remote than retired. As the saying goes, I'm alright, Jack. The remote employed economy isn't immune from the collapse of the exposed economy but maybe it'll help lift us out of the hole when the pandemic softens. I am not in such a bubble that I don't worry about what this country is going to be like now. It could very well swing fascist. That's what economic deprivation usually fuels. I've no offspring but I hope all your kids come out of this ok. Personally, I could stay locked down for two years, but perhaps the costs borne by the young is too much. If they can get the testing straightened out, it would help diminish the tradeoffs.

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    1. Yup. I don't have much, but what I have is safe, and I try to spread around what I can.

      I keep trying to foist tips on the kids at Kroger who bring my order to the car. Pick-up service is free, and most of them tell me they can't take tips.

      I now put $20 in an envelope in the trunk that says "Happy Birthday from Gramma Jean" on it. I feel like a dope dealer, but a few of them take it now.

      Testing is now widely available in Michigan, but as people lose health care insurance, cost of testing is keeping some people away. It is impossible to find out what the test costs from state's online info. So lots of people out and about looking for work with lurking infections?

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  6. I think the new-found availability of testing is just confusing. I may have mentioned before that my grandaughter, who teaches in Taiwan, has her temperature taken at the start of the school day and at noon. If her temperature spikes, she gets an instant coronavirus test. She has been doing that since early March; we in the greatest etc., etc, have not.

    Some of the large corporations that have been reopening have begun with the temperature-taking. It's still not clear if they can do enough testing. Automakers have unions to deal with. I haven't heard of many companies that don't have pushy unions following the Taiwan protocol. (Taiwan 7 deaths; Palm Beach County: 286)

    The other thing one needs tests for is spotting carriers and warning people they have been near. That requires tracking. It seems that most states have tracking teams (who knew?), but they are not numerous enough for the current crisis. And, of course, Addison McConnell (a multi-millionaire by marriage) isn't going to help them.

    It's not enough to have enough tests. Although that is better than going two months without them if you have neither enough people nor enough money to make them useful.

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  7. Trump Says He Takes
    Unproven Drug to
    Ward Off Covid-19
    -- NYTimes Web page, 5:547 EST

    I hope y'all know that your president is an imbecile.

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    1. My president, wrong or wronger!

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    2. Maybe he could try some Clorox and UV rays as some type of "cleaning."

      Eric, one of the dimmmer bulbs in the family chandelier, says that the shutdown in blue states is a plot to stop Trump rallies.

      Now there's Obamagate, which is worse than Watergate, which Trump will not define because you can read about it in any newspaper. Except the failed ones.

      And that kid those rednecks shot in Georgia, well, it was sad, but there were gaps in that tape, so we don't know what happened.

      Man, this country has backslid.

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    3. Latest right wing panic du jour is absentee or voting by mail. Because it would supposedly be so easy to commit fraud. And a little dog-whistle thrown in, non-citizens would find it easy to vote. Translation: when Trump loses (I have to say that rather than "if"!) he is going to claim that he lost because of the mail-in vote. He doesn't really want voting by mail to go away, because he needs it to be a scapegoat.
      Interesting that there are multiple Facebook shares about "just say no to mail in ballots!" Then in the comments the sharer will say that they actually did vote by mail forvthe primary, and it was wonderfully convenient . But too convenient for those others (who might vote for Democrats).

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    4. In a delicious irony, Trumpster and one of the organizers of many Michigan shut-down measures, Brandon Hall, was convicted of felonious voter fraud. I guess your Repubs know first-hand how vulnerable our system is.

      https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/protest-takes-place-outside-michigan-governors-mansion-despite-pleas-from-republican-leader.html

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    5. You know that voting by mail is an insidious Democratic ploy. We Californians have been allowed to do so for many years now (no reason needed) and we consistently Go Blue. See, that proves it!

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    6. I have my suspicions that the actual end game is to throw doubt on the November election results because (1) with Covid sure to be still a problem, absentee ballots aren't going anywhere, and (2) Trump thinks he is going to lose (please, God!).

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