He is the first person whom I personally know whom I've heard has tested positive for the disease. I learned earlier this week that a second person, whom I know slightly, had the illness and is now recovering. That person is a co-worker. He lives 1,000 miles away from me; I "know" him in the way I know most of my co-workers: from having spoken with him over Zoom and from trading emails. To the best of my knowledge, I've never actually met him in person. So if we say I half-know him, I guess I can say that I know 1 1/2 victims.
According to a COVID-19 map of Illinois by zip code, my zip code, as of earlier today, has 113 cases of individuals with positive coronavirus tests. That seems like a lot to me; the zip code due south, which comprises the other half of the suburban town in which I live, has only 66. But there are a few zip codes on the West Side of Chicago which have over 1,000 cases apiece, and many of the Chicago zip codes each have several hundred.
Partly because I am trying to understand the trends, and partly because I tend to be analytic, I've been tracking the daily reports of coronavirus infections and deaths for my state. I have to say, the trends are not pointing in the right direction. Here are the two line charts I've been maintaining:
In each chart, the jagged line (the blue and yellow lines, respectively) plots each day's count of infections and deaths, respectively. Those counts change a good deal from one day to the next, which makes it fairly difficult to discern the trend. The smoother lines (the red and green lines, respectively) are seven day moving averages of the daily counts, which is a simple way to smooth out some of the daily variability and see where the overall trend is pointing. What we want to see is a "flattening of the curve", especially of those seven day moving average lines. So far, I am afraid neither chart shows a strong tendency to flatten.
The zip code map I mentioned is color-coded by the number of cases in each zip code, so it is easy to visually identify the virus hot spots in my state. The Chicago metropolitan area, in the northeast corner of the map, is the predominant hot spot. Large portions of the remainder of the state are completely white, which, according to the legend, denote zip codes with five or fewer cases.
The contrast between different geographies, even within the same state, surely is feeding the tensions in many places over stay-at-home orders which are perceived as economically and socially onerous. Our governor, Jay Pritzker, has instituted a single stay-at-home order which pertains uniformly to all parts of the state. The argument of Illinois Downstaters (which means, Those who don't live in the Chicago metropolitan area) is that the state's single hot spot is driving the policy for the entire state.
Last week in the New York Times, conservative opinion columnist Bret Stephens made an articulate case that it may be appropriate to apply different sets of policies to different geographies. In the column, entitled America Shouldn't Have to Play by New York Rules, Stephens wrote:
Right now, there’s a lot of commentary coming from talking heads (many of them in New York) about the danger of lifting lockdowns in places like Tennessee. Perhaps the commentary needs to move in the opposite direction. Tennesseans are within their rights to return to a semblance of normal life while demanding longer restrictions on New Yorkers.I confess to having mixed views about this. The statewide charts I've been maintaining tell a story of a virus that is not in control and not abating. Yet if the heat map of the State of Illinois is typical, then it seems to support Stephens' thesis: the virus is out of control mostly in a relative handful of zip codes in a single metropolitan area. But (on the third hand), I fear that, if restrictions on social intercourse and travel are significantly relaxed in low-frequency-of-infection areas, the virus inevitably will spread, and some of those white areas on the Illinois map will become yellow, or even orange or red.
I write this from New York, so it’s an argument against my personal interest. But I don’t see why people living in a Nashville suburb should not be allowed to return to their jobs because people like me choose to live, travel and work in urban sardine cans.
But, stepping back from these "macro" considerations to the decidedly "micro" scale of my own life: it seems I personally know very few COVID-19 victims. I'm in the Chicago area, but not in one of the orange or red hot spots. Different zip codes aren't just postal geography; they can span sharp differences in income, lifestyle and other demographic differentiators with health-care-outcome ramifications. For the sake of my wife and children, I'm grateful to be living in a relatively "cool" spot. But lack of personal experience makes it harder to imagine what it must be like to live in one of the red zones. As I age and become more aware of my limitations, I find myself praying more frequently for the gift of empathy, because it's a precondition for solidarity.
Friend's elderly mother died of C19 last week in mid-Michigan. Lansing couple, close friends, had sore throats and fevers in March. They put their daughter, home from.college, in the basement, and no illness for her. They were told test was not available unless they were in dire straits. They are awaiting antibody test. My brother's neighbor just died after a week on a vent. I wonder if he still thinks it's all a hoax.
ReplyDeleteWe are in a cool zone. I plan to make a limited mental health run for a take-out coffee and some potting plants next week. I expect cases in Michigan will surge after Memorial Day because people will be travelling and the Florida snow birds will be back.
People who have had it report strange symptoms that are all over the place. One doctor had it and the only symptoms were a fever of 99°F for an hour and only one time ran out of air after climbing stairs. Some people need strong administration of anticoagulants. That Broadway star who lost his leg is still unconscious though off ventilation. If he does come around, his lungs are shot. We're still trying to figure out this virus and I think the virus is still trying to figure out its new host. When the virus reaches the rural areas, one problem will be the lack of superhospitals.
ReplyDeleteI would be most worried about the clotting and strokes, and organ systems failure. I think if things were going that way I'd want them to just let me go.
DeleteOur county is up 816% since last week. The count is now 110. The state total is 4838, with 70 deaths. Still, the governor is relaxing some restrictions next week. His reasoning is that as long as the medical facilities aren't everwhelmed, we're flattening the curve.
ReplyDeleteOne family in our parish had it; they had gone to Colorado over spring break. I believe they are now recovered, they were relatively young people. My former boss at work very likely had it. He couldn't get tested because he didn't have a fever, which I guess is sine qua non. But he had every other symptom, was gone from work for 2 and a half weeks. For most of that time he could barely get out of bed. Still has a wracking cough. Other people are concerned he might still be contagious, but he was cleared by his doctor to return. Glad I'm not there anymore!
I think most of new cases are related to the packing plant situation.
I feel okay going to the 7:00 AM geezer hour at the grocery store with a mask, and my weekly adoration hour at church, since it's one at a time. We have been walking outside a lot, and have had no problems with distancing. Monday I have to go to the dentist, since they are opening up after cancelling me three times. But at 8:00 AM I am likely the first patient. Not going to be able to wear a mask for that, but they will. They always do anyway.
Stephens, in his NY Times column, writes, " Many of the worst Covid outbreaks outside New York (such as at Chicago’s Cook County Jail or the Smithfield Foods processing plant in Sioux Falls, S.D.) have specific causes that can be addressed without population-wide lockdowns." It's a happy thought. But those carriers from the packing plant certainly have brought the virus into their homes, and members of those households certainly have been going out into public places, to purchase groceries of nothing else.
DeleteWe've lost three from the parish, two of whom I knew quite well. John was in his 50s, a quiet guy, but when we needed him for rallies, he showed up with friends in tow. Not a profound thinker, but a steady worker.
ReplyDeletePatti was 81, according to her obituary, but her husband, who died earlier this year was 84. And they were both in the same grade -- third -- when they met and started going steady, so I don't know when Patti got behind. She had had problems, physical and mental, in the past four or five years, and her husband took care of her (and lots of other people, deserving and not) before he died. Since they were together so long, Patti would have passed soon anyway, but it was the Covid-19 that was the physical cause.
Robert Reno at First Things seems to consider Patti and me expendable. I take that kind of personally.
I don't know of any data source in Florida comparable to what you have in Illinois. The state health department stopped reporting numbers the other day; everyone knows they did, no one admits to knowing on whose orders. Local health departments are mostly still reporting. I suppose anyone who could handle the proof for Fermat's Last Theorem could figure out what's going on from the county reports and past history. But, really, since the disastrous mucking around of Rick Scott, there hasn't been much government in Florida.
Obviously, where people are spread out a virus won't hit as many people as fast as it would in a city where people are stacked up. But, equally obviously, until a sizeable part of the population has been tested, you don't know what you don't know. And that is pretty much the case everywhere.
"The state health department stopped reporting numbers the other day; everyone knows they did, no one admits to knowing on whose orders."
DeleteThat strikes me as unconscionable. My guess is, it is a political decision to prevent the kind of thinking I'm doing a bit of in this post: if the statewide numbers aren't published, then amateurs like me can't do a few clicks in Excel and conclude what I've concluded, which is that the virus is not contained.
My basic view is: if you live in a place with few infections, then chalk it up to luck and happenstance. It certainly has nothing to do with anything that humans have done to stop it, because there is essentially no way for us to stop it yet. And ramping up the interpersonal interactions by easing restrictions will most likely accelerate the passing of the virus to others.
This evening, one of the little ministries at our parish bought a large order of carryout food from a local eatery. The food was delivered to some folks who usually are homeless folks, who are currently being put up in local hotels, thanks to a generous donation from the Viatorians, a religious order of priests. Churches and community organizations are signing up to provide meals for the hotel residents, so tonight was our turn.
Anyway: when I went to pick up the food order this evening, I was surprised to observe that the restaurant's front door was open. That's pretty unusual; most places have been doing curbside or GrubHub delivery only. As I went inside, I saw a sign posted that no more than 10 people can be in the building at a time. But there were anywhere from 12 to 15 of us in there. And people were lining up pretty close together. Everyone was wearing masks. But people suck at social distancing. By now, you'd think we all have it down. But I was working very hard to keep farther away from people. I don't don't know if social distancing was failing because people are just on autopilot, or if some were making the conscious decision, "I've had enough of this BS".
I had written here a few days ago that people are smart enough to figure this stuff out without needing a lot of top-down direction. Now I'm not so sure.
Our state is divided up into regional health districts. I suppose most states are. Anyway our governor is leaving a lot up to them. One way you can look at it is that the various regions are different, so one size solutions don't work for all. Another slightly more cynical take is that said governor doesn't have to take as much responsibility that way. Anyway, one issue that has come up is that not all health districts are treating information about where known cases are located the same. Of course no one is suggesting publishing names and addresses of patients generally. But emergency responders have made the case, which seems valid to me, that they need to know where cases are so they know to what degree they need protective gear to go into a 911 call. Otherwise they have to assume full gear in every instance, which leads to a waste of resources that they don't have. They are saying that the governor should insist that they have the information and not leave it up to the health districts.
DeleteThe Boston Globe seems to be getting a lot of names and running obits. I think I saw that they had 16 pages of obits one day. Locally, we've seen a couple of stories about prominent individuals who died from Covid, but I haven't seen as many obits as we've had deaths.
DeleteISTM a lot of governors are following the president in kicking the big decisions down to lower levels of government so they can stay above the responsibility and insult those who accept it but fail to work wonders. Monkeys see, monkeys do,
"The buck stops down there somewhere"
DeleteYou know, I've always understood Truman's statement about the buck stopping here as meaning, "I take responsibility". But I've never really thought about the "buck" part of that statement. Was be really saying that he was going to prevent the federal government from overspending? Harry Truman, proto-Tea Partyer?
DeleteI know what the phrase means, but I've always had this mental picture of a large-antlered deer staring one in the face and saying, "Deal with it!
DeleteThat buck has a disputed etymology, but none of the suggestions imply money. The most likely is is from the buckhorn handle of a knife used in poker games to indicate who is the dealer. If it reached someone who didn't want to deal, he'd pass it to someone else. I wouldn't stake my life on that one, but there it is, and it does come from a game the popularizer of the expression played.
ReplyDeleteTo my amazement, the state did have a dashboard showing cases by Zip code. It was last updated April 29. We had 47 cases in our Zip. A big over-55 community is included, although that is more likely to increase the death rate (not shown) than the case rate.
DeleteThe Lansing Diocese announced rather abruptly yesterday that Masses will resume here May 18. No details on guidelines on sanitation or whether us chronically sick people may abstain from services.
ReplyDeleteWe still have about 1,000 new cases and 100 deaths statewide. Curve has flattened, but with cases decreasing in Detroit metro and growing in rural areas like ours.
Not happy about Raber's possible exposure from anti-vax, Trump-loving Catholics in the local parish who see going without a mask as a way to support the president.
I don't feel I can ask Raber to forego church, but I have asked if he is willing to leave church clothes in the garage and go directly to the shower when he comes home. There will be a lot of unpleasant "negotiation," I fear.
Extremely upsetting news.
Sounds like maybe the bishop of Lansing was up in the galleries, armed, at the Legislature. At least in spirit.
DeleteWhat does the governor think of reopening churches?
Just got an email from our pastor, copied to all parishioners, that reopening of public Masses is delayed until further notice due to increased virus cases. He reminded everyone that they are still dispensed from the Sunday obligation. He said that when Mass does resume, everyone should wear a mask, and pews would be taped off for distancing.
DeleteJean, seems like your husband could wear a mask to church to protect you. People with chronic illness are always dispensed from attending.
Gov. Gretchen has kept silent about churches, I think giving them info and letting them make their own judgments.
DeleteOur Bishop of Hawk Hollow Golf Club apparently thinks that if the links are safe (you can golf, no carts), people should be back at Mass.
Raber will wear a mask, though probably not while lectoring. And the masks are of limited value. Up to him and the Trumpsters running things in the parish.
I sure don't plan to go.
In my golf experience, I never got close to the people I was playing with except on the green. (Of course, a lot of my time was spent in high weeds and sand.) And even on greens the players don't exactly breathe down each other's neck while putting.
DeleteI was thinking last night that baseball could be reopened. Players don't get close very often. When someone reached first base he might, perhaps, be required to put on a mask, and ditto the shortstop and second basemen who might be required to cover the base if he attempted to steal. Possibly the third baseman and catcher, too. But only so long as someone is on base. The only danger I can see would be the home plate umpire filling the air around the catcher with coronavirus as he called balls and strikes, but he could be masked for the whole game.
Tennis, so long as it's singles, could also be reopened. If I were your governor I'd arrest his eminence of Hawk Hollow if he goes though with it, but she has problems with good people who are armed and fully tattooed in her balcony and with Billy Barr lusting after a religious liberty case since his war on the FBI isn't going well.
In the interests of accuracy, there were only two people in the gallery the day before Thursday's protest.
DeleteThe bishop is what he is. Most churches in other denominations are not re-opening. So if people get sick and die at Mass, God will have to deal with him in the Hereafter. And, if there is any justice in the world, his victims will be at his sentencing hearing ...
In the sort of municipal/public golf that those of us who aren't PGA tour caliber play, a slow twosome/threesome/foursome can cause play behind them to back up. This can lead to many people congregating in the tee areas, especially on par 3s. Even then, social distancing should be possible, although as I noted somewhere recently, people suck at it.
DeleteI agree that tennis also could reopen - singles, not doubles.
I don't see how baseball can make it work, unless the players and their union agree to take the risks. Besides the possibility of baserunners at every base, both infielders and outfielders come into close proximity with one another on various plays. If the players are getting paid today, I don't know why their union would agree to play; they make the same amount of money either way, and they're certainly safer not playing, both from a COVID-19 and a potential-injury point of view.
Hockey also is talking about restarting. There is just no way in Hades that hockey players can socially distance themselves. Apart from play on the ice, in which players clustering together is very frequent (at the net, along the boards, etc.), have you ever seen the players' benches?
Well, benches would need modification in all sports.
DeleteBut I don't see why baseball pitchers and outfielders would need masks. Yeah, sometimes an outfielder is coming in and an infielder is going out on a blooper. But someone is supposed to call for it, you can't call for it in a mask. A collision is likely to damage someone whereas if the players were tested before the game, transmission by collision would be a long shot.
The Bundesliga and English Premier League both seem to be getting very close to resuming football (soccer to Americans). Playing in empty stadiums has not been completely ruled out for the Premier League, but I doubt the players could keep their heads in the game if they don't have a bunch of drunks singing "When the Saints Go Marching In" in Liverpool and Southampton.
Golf courses are open in Michigan. No carts and no bars or dining facilities. It's totally doable.
DeleteMy guess is that, behind the scenes, Gov Whitmer is entertaining plans from industry groups for phased re-opening and then working with state medical advisors to gauge effectiveness. GOP hates this because they want to be the ones who forced reopenings.
Opening theaters and sporting arenas is still not in the cards. Hence my puzzlement at the precipitous resumption of Catholic Mass, which resembles those venues in terms of seating and traffic flow much more than golf.
Catholic churches in resort areas get a lot of communicants from far and wide in the summer. We get folks from the state park 10 miles south of us. Gov has asked vacationers not to mix with the locals to avoid stressing their testing and hospital capacity.
So Mass attendance by outsiders will pose spread dangers.
Governors are certainly in a difficult spot. DeWine here in Ohio is trying to open up the state in a cautious systematic way that does not get us into trouble.
ReplyDeleteFirst he is opening elective medical procedures, and manufacturing and wholesale, then retail. He is working with the various sectors of the economy getting them to agree upon best practices. He has also arranged for much more testing which his health director hopes to target to evaluate the opening process.
He admits that he is going too fast for some people and too slow for other people but that it is his decision. His daily weekday conferences consist of himself, his Lt. Gov who is tasked with the economy side and his woman Health Director. At last Friday conference a reporter suggesting there was much criticism of the Health Director. The governor was very direct. "The Health Director and I discuss the various Orders we issue. We issue the Orders under her Name or my Name depending upon what the law requires. But ultimately they are all my decisions, you need to direct your criticism to me."
DeWine seems to have done a good job.
DeleteGov Whitmer ditto, but there are some murky areas in the state constitution about emergency powers, and GOP legislators are playing a variety of angles--from getting the libertarians worked up and staging protests, to trying to pass legislation limiting her powers, to demanding to negotiate re-opening sectors of the economy.
She has rolled out daily stats and updates by county with the head medical advisor. And she continues to wield emergency powers until the Supreme Court says otherwise. She has said flatly that re-opening the economy will be based on infection rates and the ability of businesses to maintain social distancing and protecting people, not on negotiations.
A minority of people are calling for businesses to police themselves. However, public confidence in being able to safely dine out, go the movies, or visit the salon is low. Michigan's death count is still third in the nation. So many businesses prefer to stay closed or to operate on a limited basis and hope to stay afloat through small business assistance.
Like DeWine, she has taken the heat.
Most of these governors have shown more leadership than anyone at the federal level.
Whitmer and DeWine should have done what our wonderful Ron DeSantis did: Go to Washington to kiss The Dons's, er, ring, pose with him for a photo op and announce he is taking a step-by-step approach he worked out with The Don. If any state can be counted on for platoons of crazy, it should be Florida, but ours have been pretty quiet.
DeleteDeWine has come at this with well articulated positions.
DeleteFirst he has said that he has made more of his mistakes in politics by not listening to the experts. In this case he is listening to the public health experts, the science and technology experts, and the business experts.
Before the virus he was convinced that public health needed to be strengthened in Ohio. He took care in hiring a public health director that was well know in the Columbus community to do that.
He is convinced that Ohio ingenuity in science, health and business can solve Ohio's problems, and is better off NOT depending on national resources. In fact that has resulted in a whole process for sanitizing masks that makes them reusable up to 20 times. The science community and the health community put that together and had it operating within weeks. He is doing similar things with regard to all the components testing. He has a whole website with a list of detailed things and a place for Ohio businesses to work on getting those things produced here in Ohio.
Finally he has been very adept in centering everything here in Ohio, and ignoring the national scene. When he has needed Trump's help such as with FDA prompt approval he has telephoned the President and gotten him behind Ohio. Of course he did this by holding an unscheduled weekend conference outlining the problems he was experienced with the FDA to put the feds on the spot then phoned the President who immediately agreed that we have to get these bureaucrats moving at greater speed. A two week process became a two day process and Trump and DeWine were both able to claim credit.
"GOP legislators are playing a variety of angles"
DeleteThat is happening in Illinois, too. Our governor, JB Pritzker, who has acquitted himself pretty well so far, has been sued at least twice, both times by GOP state representatives, for exceeding the powers granted him in the Illinois constitution. The first lawsuit succeeded, but the application of the decision was extremely narrow: the only person it applies to is the litigant himself. Both suits are aimed at relaxing the orders which have businesses shut down. Both of the legislators are from Downstate areas which are relatively cool zones.