"British Prime Minister Boris Johnson sent the UK into a frenzy Wednesday after he asked Queen Elizabeth II to order a five-week suspension of Parliament just in time for October 31, the deadline for lawmakers to stop a no-deal Brexit from occurring." [Vox / Jen Kirby]
"….Before today, members of Parliament — who return to work on September 3 — had less than two months to pass a law that demanded the government extend the Brexit deadline and hold a second referendum. Now they have even less time to halt Johnson’s plans." [CNN / Ivana Kottasová]
"Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn has reportedly already written to the queen calling for a meeting over the suspension. Previously, he issued a statement saying he is “appalled at the recklessness of Johnson’s government,” and that Britain should hold a general election or public vote before any Brexit deals are finalized. Parliament will most likely move forward with a confidence vote, though."[Telegraph / Danielle Sheridan and Tony Diver]
"A no-deal Brexit would have major repercussions on trade, citizenship rights, and the Northern Ireland border, among other issues. Without a deal with the EU, the UK will become subject to World Trade Organization rules and its exports will face the same tariffs as non-EU nations, while EU nationals who moved to the UK after March 29, the original Brexit deadline, may face employment and housing hurdles due to their citizenship status." [The Week]
"Already, the British pound has taken a hit after Johnson’s announcement, falling by more than a cent against the US dollar and by almost as much against the euro. Market analysts suspect once the Parliament suspension begins, it will lead to a much steeper depreciation." [Guardian / Richard Partington]
I don't know that it's true that misery loves company, but at least it's not our fearless leader causing this particular crisis. Though it will affect us if the financial markets are roiled, which is likely. And without a backstop it will roil Northern Ireland.
From what I am reading, asking the queen to order a five-week suspension of Parliament is a formality. There was little or no chance of her refusing the request; she was expected to rubber-stamp it.
Part of me sees this as BoJo playing chicken, a power grab. But on the other hand, it's not as though the deadline hasn't been looming for a long time. However, no plan is in sight.
Just tallying up the number of far right-wing leaders who have been elected worldwide, it seems as if globally people are in a big "flip the middle finger to the universe" moment.
Well.
ReplyDeleteJohnson seems to want to have one last crack at a new Brexit deal with the EU (unlikely) without any Parliamentary grandstanding. He also wants to limit Brexit deal debates (assuming there is anything new to debate) once Parliament re-opens.
Brexit debates have been acrimonious and unproductive. It's all been messy and painful. So I understand why Brexiteers might want to shut things down.
However, I hope Johnson isn't deluding himself into thinking that the Parliamentary vacation will be any kind of cooling-off period. Members on all sides will be working overtime in front of news cameras.
Robinson's resignation seems to signal a break with Johnsonian Conservatives. That could stoke a Scottish independence move. If it does, watch Ulster, where 56 percent of voters opted to stay in the EU. Its ruling body is comprised of reps from 10 political parties. They break with an equal number of unionists and nationalists, plus 11 votes in play.
"I think this may well be the day that UK democracy dies and it may well be the day that we look back on as the day when independence for Scotland became completely inevitable.
ReplyDelete“I think support for independence is growing with every day that passes right now."
-- First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, yesterday
"SUPPORT for remaining in the EU has risen in Scotland while the number of people wanting to leave has dropped by almost half, according to an exclusive poll of the Herald's readers.
"A survey of how people feel on Brexit found that only 16 per cent favour the decision to quit the European Union, while almost 67% now say they are against the plan."
-- The (Glasgow) Herald, today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiyLuv3GSs4
So, if Scotland were to go independent, wouldn't it be the same fraught situation with the border as it is going to be with the border between Northern Ireland and the south?
DeleteNot really. The wars between Scotland and England are long past (and past they must remain). There would be customs stations and all that, but there is no IRA and no primary loyalty to London rather than Belfast (or Edinburgh). They'd get along like the U.S. and Mexic... Well, maybe this ought to be rethought. No, seriously. Like the U.S. and Canada.
DeleteAnd Hadrian already thoughtfully built a Wall ..
DeleteI don't know if an independent Scotland would be able to have a "soft" border with England. As a member of the EU, it would have to treat with England as dictated by its EU membership.
DeleteScotland might be able to have a soft border with England if it exited both the EU and Great Britain. If Great Britain exits the EU so will Scotland. If Scotland than exits Britain the question is could it have a soft board with England if it joined the EU again.
DeleteI am foreseeing/hoping that BoJo crashed out of Europe, taking Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland with him. Then Scotland gracefully severs relations with BoJo and rejoins the EU. Followed, possibly, by Wales. In all scenarios, the unanswerable question is: What does Northern Ireland do? It could join Scotland or Ireland outside the UK, which would, of course, be the D(is)united Kingdom. Or maybe everybody could pull out of the UK and see how tourism goes for Little (Bitty) England by itself.
DeleteWales won't pull out. They voted Brexit by a large margin, though they also crashed their Internet service the next day to see if it was true what the anti-Brexiters were saying about the EU paying for their roads and waterfront improvements. Maybe there's buyers remorse there, but unless there's another vote, they're stuck with England. As they have been since 1277.
DeleteI wonder if the vote were held today if Brexit would still win. I think there were a lot of people who thought it would be easy peasy. I'm thinking there is a lot of buyer's remorse.
DeleteTom Blackburn: it seems that the hurricane is heading your way. Please keep us informed about your wellbeing.
ReplyDeleteGene, Dorian is acting like a real stinker, isn't he? I'll let you know when we hunker down because we'll probably be out of touch -- now power, no cell towers -- for a week or ten days, sweating and grousing.
DeleteMy cousin in Plantation had her son installing the hurricane shutters. I have relatives in Orlando, too. I pray you all get some kind of break.
DeleteWhat I'm seeing on the news now indicates that Florida might dodge the Dorian bullet. But still plenty of rough weather for the southeast.
DeleteI have been posting for years (under a pseudonym, natch) on a local Cork Ireland discussion board. Aside from the general schadenfreude towards England in distress, there is a core of Trump supporting (believe it or not) nationalists that want England (and Ireland) to leave the EU, and a majority who want both to stay. While they trade barbs about how much better or worse things will be after Brexit, the Brexit supporters believe that British sovereignty is involved, that Britain will become more "democratic" after it severs its ties to what they call "The Fourth Reich" and, amusingly to me, that Brexit will mean the defeat of globalism in Britain (because there's nothing exploitative about capitalism as long as it's national).
ReplyDeleteThey are sure that Britain will be able to thrive alone (look at Canada, Australia and New Zealand!) and they also believe that Britain will forge a new relationship to the US as "equals", especially under Trump. They don't like it when I point out that the British Empire now only consists of Gibraltar, the Falkland Islands, and that little village thing at Epcot Center in Disney World Florida. They also don't like it when I point out that British industry is dead, British agriculture is dead, and Britain is a financial center that has to be integrated into something much larger than itself to even survive and that the British service sector needs the financial sector to survive in order for itself to survive. They also don't like it when I point out to them that their belief that Brexit will mean fewer brown people in Britain is false.
To me, Brexit in particular and modern populist nationalism in general is part of a very rear guard action to turn back the globalist clock. But capital is now thoroughly internationalized and even the mighty post-Brexit British Empire will not be able to do anything about it since the whole place is already bought and paid for, no matter what the color of the passport cover is.
Patrick, I think you are right. Not exactly Brexit, but to your point: Col. Sanders makes more profit in China than in the United States. So when Trump demands American companies stop doing business with China, he is demanding from the weak side of the table. I believe there are other "American" companies more reliant on China than on the home market.
DeletePatrick, I think you are right about populist nationalism being an effort to turn back globalism, also that it is futile at this point. I wish instead of the energy spent in pushback the PTB would lead as far as human rights and make an effort to ensure that the pie is more evenly divided up.
DeleteIt's pretty clear to me that "sovereignty" is code for white Anglo-Saxons, with selected Celts thrown in.
DeleteThe Lady from Lincolnshire who is getting famous in radio interviews is touting the "sovereignty" angle. She's willing to see her business suffer to get rid of Eastern European who work her flower farm. Apparently, there has been drinking in the streets!