Sunday's mayoral election in Istanbul (formerly known as Constantinople!) showed that strong men and populists can be delivered a set-back if enough people go out to vote because they know what they are up against.
Turkey is an amazing place; I visited as a tourist some years ago. Its politics have always been verging on democracy, but have had to struggle against the politics of a secular state established by Ataturk after WW1 run by a string of military leaders. That changed when the AKP party, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, took power. He created a Islamist, democratic state, Middle East style. As time passed, he has come to seem more a pasha than a democratic leaders. The AKP's loss of the mayoralty this past spring led him to call for a new election. This one sent him a message.
This NYTimes story is by Carlotta Gall whose writing from the ME going back to the Balkan and Iraq Wars, if not before, I have eagerly read and long admired.
UPDATE: Al Monitor a Middle Eastern blog has this headline, Why Erdogan's historical Istanbul defeat is irreparable, and a short take on what happened in the election. "Erdogan’s setback amounts to a political earthquake. The June 23 result
is nothing less than a tectonic shift in Turkish politics, the impact of
which was felt in all of Istanbul’s districts. Imamoglu increased his
vote in all 39 districts, while Yildirim saw his vote decline across the
city, barring only one district."
Interesting article. And encouraging to see that dictator wannabees flirting on the edge of fascism don't always get their way. Of course this was a mayoral race and Erdogan is still in charge. But a few cracks showing up.
ReplyDeleteI happened to visit Istanbul the week that a Time cover story called "Erdogan's Way" came out. The story lauded him for paying off Turkey's entire IMF debt and putting the country into the black. Capital was pouring in. And this was in the context of Turkey's efforts to join the EU. Whenever I talked politics during my stay, people were feeling proud. The magazine was on sale EVERYWHERE and I may not even have been the only person in Istanbul to buy a copy.
ReplyDeleteBut it all fell apart for a number of reasons, with hubris perhaps being one of them. Turkey has a very strong secular politics backed up by a very secularist military that saw itself the main protector of Attaturk. My impression was that Erdogan was squeezed between two groups (in general). One was these secularist descendants of Attaturk (in their various left or right forms) centered in the big cities and especially in the west. The other was the Islamists (also is various forms) centered in the east. The secularists were the most powerful but the Islamists may have been easier to co-opt and organize as a whole.
So Erdogan captured the Islamists, first by eliminating Fethullah Gülen, his former ally and a major Islamic preacher who began a movement that some have called "Secular Islamist". Gulen had to flee and is now more or less hiding in the US. (Trump sleazebag Mike Flynn was offered $15 million to kidnap Gulen and sneak him back to Turkey to be tried for treason, since the US so far has refused to extradite him).
In the meantime, Erdogan did a series of purges of the secularist civil service (including professors), the press, and the military. He put in his own people. In 2016 there was an attempted coup. Erdogan claims that Gulen was behind it, but he used it to conduct and additional massive purge of all of his remaining enemies of every stripe in the military, government, and the civil service. He has a rather tight hold on things now, and indications are that he wants Turkey to become a major force in the Islamist world. (Not that the Ottoman Empire is very fondly remembered by its former subjects).
So it's good to see that when the secularists won the Istanbul mayoral election, had the election nullified because ???, and then got another shot at it that they have been coming on strong. I can't say that I know very much about Turkey and I would not be very optimistic about Erdogan getting put out of power very soon, but it's good to see that dissent is alive and well there.
If you ever want to have a nice read about Istanbul, read the book by that name by Orhan Pamuk. And if you want a good book about Turkey to curl up with, read his Snow. And finally, if you like having a good book read to you, get the audio version of Snow read by John Lee. It's a brilliant presentation.
Early on Erdogan seemed like he might be the great ME hope and that Turkey might be the center of a politically moderate "islamist" state. His side-tracking of the militarist-political government was greeted by many Turks as a step forward into the EU and a "normal" Western state. The EU didn't happen and probably won't...There were lots of opponents but the one that springs to mind is Benedict XVI. Christian West and all that.
DeletePamuk: his book about Istanbul is fascinating. Though he be a novelist, I find them a bit of a slog...Snow and Red being the ones I struggled with. It reminded me how important deep cultural references can look to outsiders. Ditto "The Time Regulation Machine" by Tanpinar (recommended by the very Western grandson). It's book marked at page 7. Maybe I should try again.
Pamuk has been a favorite author of mine in years. I had a friend, now deceased, who I used to visit in Istanbul every few years. Secular Turkey, Istanbul and Izmir in particular, were delightful places to visit and very friendly to Americans in those days.
DeleteI will be interesting to watch him try to play the Donfather and Putin against each other. That is, if he doesn't do what would be the smart thing and return to the kind of management that put him where he is, i.e., making sure the garbage is collected and the streetcars run on time.
ReplyDeleteJust like Mayor Richard Daley.
DeleteRichard I knew his limits. He never tried to run Indiana and Iowa from Chicago.
DeleteAnd in case some Chicagoan is preparing a snappy comeback, I have to point out that Scott Walker thought he could run Illinois from Madison. See the deal with the ever shrinking Chinese company and its impact on Lake Michigan.
DeleteOff the subject, I see that Commonweal is going to 11 issues a year instead of 20. I suppose that is a cost saving measure on printing a physical magazine. I am a digital subscriber so it doesn't really matter to me, except I hope it won't be half the content for the same price.
ReplyDeleteOh! Sad news. Hope you are right about content.
DeleteThanks. I will let Raber know. We always get our print copy about a week to 10 days after everyone else does.
DeleteNot sure when it goes into effect.
DeleteI guess urban vs countryside is one of those political verities. I believe it applies in Iran, where opposition to the mullahs resides in Tehran.
ReplyDeleteFor that matter, it probably applies to the Brexit divide in the UK. And possibly to the Trump/Democratic divide in the US?