Tuesday, December 5, 2017

The Colorado baker is back in the news

It has seemed to me for a long time that trying to predict a Supreme Court decision based on the justices' questions and comportment during oral arguments is a fool's errand.  So let's get right to it. 

This Washington Post article recaps the hearing:   

The Supreme Court seemed closely divided Tuesday over whether the First Amendment protects a Colorado baker from creating a wedding cake for a same-sex couple, with Justice Anthony M. Kennedy likely to cast the deciding vote.
So, my prediction is: the baker loses.  Two reasons: (1) Justice Kennedy, based on past performance, is likely to come down on the side of gay rights.  And (2), a conservative lawyer I know believes that the same-sex couple has the law on its side.  Essentially, he sides with the legal reasoning of the lower courts.  If you offer a good for general sale, you have to offer it to everyone.  As this particular lawyer friend tends to be more libertarian-conservative than Christian right-wing conservative, I think he's okay with that.

4 comments:

  1. "If you offer a good for general sale, you have to offer it to everyone." Pretty much. It seems pretty straightforward. I would be surprised to see SCOTUS rule otherwise.

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  2. What actually happens if the baker loses? Does he have to deliver a cake to the plaintiffs? Does he go to jail? Does he get fined? Does he have to give the gay couple free cupcakes for life?

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  3. Wasn't he fined already by the Colorado equal rights commission or some such? If he hasn't paid it yet, presumably he'll have to if the judgment goes against him.

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  4. I'm not so sure the court will vote against the baker, given Trump puppet Gorsuch. I think the free speech aspect of the case is meant to do a run-around on the discrimination part.

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