Well enjoy these last few weeks of autumn. Get outdoors. Do any shopping that you need to do now while Omicron levels are still low. Get ready to isolate this winter. The new Omicron variants are coming. Not good news!
New York’s struggle with the new Omicron variant BQ is trying to tell us something
Key points
Right now, New York is seeing mounting cases of the extremely transmissible, immune-evasive BQ family of COVID variants, which includes BQ.1 and BQ.1.1.
BQ variants—along with XBB variants surging in other parts of the world—are believed to be the most immune-evasive strains of COVID yet. The jury is still out on how severe these strains are, but there are early reports that monoclonal antibody treatments, reserved for high-risk patients, can’t stand up to them.
Levels of BQ variants nearly doubled this week in the CDC’s New York region, which also includes New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. The BQ family rose from a combined estimated 9% last week to more than 17% this week, according to agency data.
What concerns Rajnarayanan more though, is that hospitalizations in New York are also on the rise. In mid-September they sat at around 2,000 a day. A month later, they’re nearing 3,000, according to data from the state.
The state’s current hospitalization wave is “pretty close, if not higher than the Delta peak,” he said, referring to the deadly COVID wave that rocked the U.S. late last year, right before Omicron hit.
Waves of COVID variants used to be fairly sequential, often with a valley or plateau in between. But now, more than 500 Omicron variants are circulating, according to Rajnarayanan—some, like members of the XBB family, with the potential to cause their own subsequent surges.
The coming U.S. COVID wave, he predicts, won’t be just one wave, but a series of waves—each fueled by a different variant—that form a “table mesa” or “table-like plateau.”
The extended wave will have an “ugly peak because of a combination of different lineages peaking and then going down,” he said. “I won’t celebrate when one goes down, because something else is going to pop up.”
It’s possible that the coming winter wave won’t be all that dissimilar to what the U.S. has already experienced, in terms of hospitalizations and deaths. But that doesn’t mean it will be without consequence, experts say.
Life has certainly changed for me. I don't find the "run for your lives and lock your doors!" response too helpful, though. Here's what I do, practically speaking:
ReplyDelete--Watch hospitalization rates in my area, now a better indicator of the spread of serious illness. Switching to curbside pick up or delivery is prudent during spikes.
--Continue to mask indoors for doc visits and shopping.
--Keep live gatherings with friends small and no more than one a week. Outside if possible. If not, hit coffee shops and restaurants during weekdays after the rush clears out.
--Learn to decline mass gatherings gracefully. Funerals are hardest for me to skip. I try to send condolences and follow up with phone calls to let people know I am thinking not them.
--Get recommended vaccinations.
--Have test kits at home and thermometers, oximeters, and flu stuff handy.
--Expect a siege if you do get sick. Friends who have been sick with covid have it for a solid two or three weeks.
--Remember that nobody lives forever, and try to balance precautions with quality of life.
--Accept that you can't control other people's behavior. Try to think of the health of others in your own.
I'd be happy to have other tips.
The new cases count for Cleveland was still sharply declining three weeks ago, became level two weeks ago and then went up 30% last week. Our suburban county was still declining sharply two weeks ago, became level this past week. I expect it will go up like Cleveland this coming week or the next.
ReplyDeleteFor those of you who are in major cities with airports, the new variants are likely already there, and will be in your suburb in the next week or two. Those of you in the hinterlands will probably have to wait until people start crowding the shopping malls, or maybe even until after Thanksgiving does a good job of spreading it around
If I were planning an extended family celebration of Thanksgiving, I would probably move it to an outside event on one of these remaining fall days.
If I were a pastor or choir director, I think I would be planning for services led by small groups of cantors or spread-out ensembles. If I had already assembled a choir, I think I would record the pieces for the parish website.
I think we are past the stage that we can wait until presidents, governors, or bishops mandate things. We just have to take care of the elderly and vulnerable among us and let other people have their all-important economy.
I checked up on the new variant vaccines, the last one not these new arrivals. The CDC is recommending that you get one even if you have had a booster as little as two months ago. Others suggest waiting a little longer to let your booster wear off. I had my last booster in early July so am close to having had four months of it. I could have gotten one the other day when I got my flue vaccine. However, I still have a lot of yard work, so I will wait until the time changes and most of the yard work is done. It takes a week or two for the new vaccine to kick in, so I should be ready for the major surges around holidays.
Good tips, Jean.
Found out my cousin Joan just had it. Despite being 85 and having all kinds of cardiac issues, she came through without severe or notable consequences. Still some fatigue. Another cousin with multiple issues from an enlarged aorta to sceroderma, did similarly well with the original Wuhan strain. I'm hoping there's some badass Polish gene floating around in my family and I have it, too. Still waiting to get it. Any time I get some sore throat, cough or feel off, I take a home test, especially before social gatherings. I think Jean's list is comprehensive.
ReplyDeleteA friend on methotrexate for an autoimmune disorder got over it recently without long-term symptons. She got the Paxlovid. She thinks it lengthened the course of the disease but did lessen symotoms pretty dramatically.
DeleteRe badass Polish genes: My correspondent in Iceland says that Icelanders tend to think of themselves as Scandinavian, and they are, culturally and linguistically. But genetic tests show most of them are predominantly Irish. The theory is that the Irish slaves had better ability to survive tge two major waves of olague that went through there. I guess Iceland is a geneticist's paradise because of the just about zero rate of immigration in the last 1200 years and the preservation of records nearly that long.
So maybe something to that ethnic immunity!
Recently in the news, DNA analysis of pre-plague and post-plague shows genetic frequency differences that may still echo today. The good news, some people were equipped to fight off the plague. The bad news, their hyperactive immune systems are prone to autoimmune disorders. Since COVID attacks mostly post-reproductive folks, it's not expected to impact the genetics very much.
DeleteI scheduled a flu shot for Monday. Since I had a COVID booster only three months ago, I'm putting off that shot for a while. I pray that all my friends here weather this new wave and that the new variants are not very pathogenic.
ReplyDeleteWe never stopped wearing masks in stores, etc. I would say about half of those I see while grocery shopping still wear masks, but most are either over 50 or Asian, including the children. I also see the Asian-American high school students walking home wearing masks!
ReplyDeleteI'm with Jean. We are pretty much following the same rules, with one exception - travel. We postponed the new booster because we are flying to Calif in mid-November for 2 weeks and then home again. We want to be at peak protection so will get it this week. We got our last boosters in April, two weeks before flying. All of the medical facilities around here, including the place where I had physical therapy this summer, require masks of all people entering the buildings.
Case counts, hospitalizations and positive tests (which are obviously seriously undercounted) are still low around here but we aren't into cold weather either - in fact we are having beautiful weather - 70 during the day.
I saw an interesting item a few days ago. Some researchers were doing informal Covid tracking by means of Yankee Candle ratings comments. Yankee Candles, if you're not familiar with them, are highly scented (and expensive). If you can't smell them, there's something wrong with your nose. Which brings us to Covid tracking. If a lot of people from a given area are only giving one or two stars, and leaving comments such as "Don't waste your money, I could barely smell anything." the researchers are finding an uptick in reported Covid cases.
ReplyDeleteAmazing - a novel way to track the disease! I’m not a fan of scented candles, but I am familiar with Yankee candles. A couple of weeks ago we went to an open house. At the front door we were knocked out by the overpowering scent.,candles burning in almost every room. But not in the bedrooms where the scent of dirty dog hair from the old carpets was almost As overwhelming. Scented candles in open houses are almost always a dead giveaway that they are trying to hide unpleasant odors.
DeleteAnne, LOL, I take it you didn't put down an offer for this property!
DeleteI am concerned about Long Covid cases. That has the potential to impact one's life long after the disease itself has passed.
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DeleteThe Washington Post has run several stories about people who will stress the disability safety net due to long covid. As far as I know, there is no predicting who will have lingering symptoms or how severe they are.
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I got the latest booster last week - got that in one arm and the flu shot in the other. It had been 6 months since my previous booster. In fact I thought I had waited too long: had some sort of respiratory ailment about 3 weeks ago. But took three COVID tests and all were negative. I hadn't heard that cases are increasing in the East.
ReplyDeleteCases have been increasing all over Europe in the last few weeks, which is usually followed by increases in cases in the US usually beginning in New York. Follow the air traffic flow.
DeleteDC has dozens of embassies and international organizations. And lots of tourists, but fewer now than during summer and spring. So I took a look at the latest. While the number of cases/100,000 in the city is still low at 6, it is 95% higher than two weeks ago. If it keeps doubling then it will go up fast. Our county is at 12/100,000. Up 1%. Most of the people who work in these organizations live in the suburbs, so if it starts spreading with international arrivals, it reaches the suburbs pretty quickly.
DeleteI follow the daily numbers at the NYT home page. You can get down to county and city level. I believe that the Covid information is open to all, not just subscribers.
Number of cases is underreported bc people are doing home tests that don't get added to stats. Hospitalization rate seems to be a better indicator of incidence and severity than tests, but it is a trailing indicator. If hospitalizations go up, the cases likely increased a few weeks earlier.
DeleteAgree. I’m more focused on hospitalization rates these days. We will get the bivalent booster next week. I’m more worried about the airplane trip than everyday life here. Mostly because that’s when my husband got the brand new variant of the moment( omicron) last Christmas, 2 1/2 months after his booster.
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