We won't all be vaccinated by May

President Biden has made headlines with his announcement that (to quote the NY Times news story) "there would be enough doses of the coronavirus vaccine available for the entire adult population in the United States by the end of May".  It's wonderful news.  It left me with the uplifting feeling that maybe we've finally tossed the lasso over COVID-19 and are cinching it tight.  It's the kind of news that helps explain, at least on a psychological level, why some states are lifting COVID restrictions already.

But. 

There is another half to the sentence I just quoted: " ... though he said it will take longer to inoculate everyone and he urged people to remain vigilant by wearing masks."

The situation today is that the demand for vaccines has far outstripped the available supply in the US.  The Biden Administration is working feverishly to fix that, coordinating with manufacturers to try to get a greater supply into the distribution chain.  Last month, the president authorized the purchase of an additional 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, and another 100 million doses of the Moderna vaccine.  That brings the total purchased from those two manufacturers by the federal government to 600 million doses, enough to vaccinate 300 million Americans.   In addition, the administration approved a third vaccine, from Johnson and Johnson, earlier this week, and now is announcing that Johnson & Johnson has struck a deal with a rival manufacturer, Merck, for the two companies to partner to ramp up manufacturing and packaging.   Johnson  & Johnson expects to make 100 million doses of its vaccine (which requires only one dose per patient) available in the US by sometime this summer.  When all this gets delivered, the US will have received enough doses to vaccinate 400 million persons.  That exceeds the total population of the United States, including those who are not here legally.  So at some point, if not by May, the supply problem should be solved.

As for demand: states are prioritizing distribution, based on CDC guidelines.  My state, Illinois, currently is offering vaccinations to residents who qualify under Phase 1A and Phase 1B, with many counties (although not mine) also offering them to those qualify under Phase 1B Plus.  Those break down as follows:

Phase 1A: 

• Health care workers
• Long-term care facility residents and staff

Phase 1B

• Residents age 65 and older
• Essential frontline workers:
• First responders
• Teachers and education workers
• Food and agriculture workers
• Manufacturing workers
• Corrections workers and inmates
• US Post Office workers
• Public transit workers
• Grocery store workers
• Shelter workers
• Day care workers

Phase 1B Plus (not currently available in my county):

• Those with high-risk medical conditions and comorbidities, including cancer, diabetes, heart conditions, pulmonary disease, among others

I have no argument with this prioritization.  

It's worth noting, though, that most of the categories who are eligible so far might be grouped under the umbrella term "low hanging fruit."  Most of the groups either reside in institutions, with the vaccine being brought to them; or they belong to large organizations (and in many cases are unionized), such that the state is able to coordinate with employers or unions to arrange for vaccinations of members.  That is how my two children who have been vaccinated have been able to receive the vaccines: one is a teacher, and the other is a health care worker.  In both cases, their employers worked directly with the state or the county to arrange for the vaccination of employees.

As more of the population is made eligible to receive the vaccine, I believe it will become more difficult to reach some of the unvaccinated.  To be sure: some, like children in school, should be relatively easy to reach (assuming we eventually decide to vaccinate children and young teens).  But among adults, many people are self-employed, or work for small companies, or are unemployed.  Many, like me, will be more or less on their own to find a slot that works for them.  Some are not particularly "plugged in" to news and social media, and may only be vaguely aware of what is asked of them and how to go about it.  And of course, some subset of the population actually is hostile to getting vaccinated.  States and counties may have to work considerably harder than they have so far to reach these categories of individuals.

In short: I think progress will become more difficult as we get deeper into the vaccination project.

If I had my druthers, vaccine distribution would be done on the same basis as vaccines currently are administered to children to fulfill school district requirements: through family physicians and clinics.  Go to the doctor for your once- or twice-yearly wellness check, and a nurse will stick a needle in your arm.  If you need a second dose, make an appointment at the front desk.  Perhaps this is all part of the master plan.  I think it would be a better way of reaching a critical mass of the population than the current method of feverishly scanning pharmacy websites for an appointment opening.

My prediction: by Labor Day, we'll still be looking forward to that magical day of reaching herd immunity.  I hope it's not Halloween or Thanksgiving.  I hope I'm being too pessimistic.