From the coronvirus story in today's Palm Beach Post.
...Still, with the growth in cases slowing, one metric that has
stubbornly refused to drop is the percentage of people testing positive.
While
the positivity rate has declined in recent days, it is still higher
than the 10% sought by state health officials, much less the 5%
recommended by the World Health Organization.
In
an abrupt reversal on Tuesday, DeSantis broke ranks with health
experts, saying he no longer believes the positivity rate is a good way
to measure the prevalence of the disease.
His
change of heart came after the American Academy of Pediatrics said
schools shouldn’t be allowed to reopen unless the positivity rate drops
below 5%. DeSantis is an ardent believer that schools should reopen but
online classes should be available for parents who don’t want their
children to mingle with teachers and classmates.
DeSantis acknowledged that he was once a champion of the positivity rate.
“I
was religiously hyping the positivity in March, April, May,” he
acknowledged at a press conference Tuesday in Jacksonville. “The problem
is the way these test are reported. Some labs don’t report the
negatives religiously, some do data dumps.”
“I’d be very cautious of tying a child’s future to the efficacy of some lab dumping positives,” he said.
Top
health officials, including the White House Coronavirus Task Force,
have said that a 14-day drop in the positivity rate or a 14-day drop in
new cases indicate that it is safe to allow businesses and entertainment
venues to reopen.
DeSantis cited the positivity rate in May when
he lifted restrictions on businesses throughout the state even as the
number of cases grew.
Dr. Matt Lambert, an emergency room
physician who lives in Washington, D.C., and is chief medical
information officer for the HCI Group, said the positivity rate is a key
metric decision-makers should use.
“The higher the positivity rate, the more cases you can expect
to see in a population,” he said in an statement. “If your goal is to
make decisions about schools based on science, the positivity rate is a
good marker. However, it is irrelevant if you are making decisions based
on economics or politics.”
He predicted that schools will suffer
the same fate as Major League Baseball if they reopen. Baseball’s
efforts to launch a short season have been plagued with many players and
staff, including more than 20 on the Miami Marlins, testing positive
for the virus.
(A letter writer today asked, If six women are pregnant, and you test only one of them, does that mean the other five are no longer pregnant?)