Douthat congratulates Trump for his January 31st decision to exclude foreign nationals who had traveled to China, then faults him for not immediately appointing a czar and using the month of February to prepare for its inevitable arrival here.
Now the time his travel ban bought us has expired, and the next few weeks will be decisive. There is still a chance that state and local efforts to contain the virus can succeed, and there are still ways in which the White House could exert strong leadership to help that happen. But right now we are headed for a scenario of rising death rates and overwhelmed hospitals, shuttered schools and empty stadiums and cancellations everywhere.
Combine this scenario’s inevitable economic consequences with the optics of the president’s blundering and solipsistic response, and the coronavirus seems very likely to doom Trump’s re-election effort, no matter where he casts the blame.When we really begin testing as many people as other nationals have been testing we are likely to find that it all around us and cannot be contained, only avoided by isolating the most vulnerable, e.g. the elderly. Is that even likely to be any more a priority for the Trump administration than Puerto Rico? Is he bright enough to recognize that many of his supporters are from that population? Or does he expect to blame it all on Obama? Probably.
Of course Trump is a moron and of course he won't respond to Covid 19 adequately. However consider the following: In 2004 SARS was a threat, its fatality rate is 14-15%. In 2008 it was Avian, or H5N1, with a fatality rate of 60%. In 2010 Swine, or H1N1 had a fatality rate of 11%. MERS in 2012 had a fatality rate of 34.4%. Ebola had two peaks in 2014 and 2018, with a fatality rate of 60-90%. Zika in 2016 had a low fatality rate, but caused 20 times the normal incidence of birth defects in unborn children of pregnant women who caught it. My point is that dangerous illnesses with high possibility of fatalities are not new or unique. We are losing our freaking minds over Covid 19. Both SARS and MERS are corona viruses with higher fatality rates. I am personally more fearful of West Nile, with a 13% fatality rate. We have cases in the state every year, and every year we have fatalities. It comes from mosquitos, which had a field day with all the standing water last year. We have two seriously ill Covid 19 patients in the University Med Center biocontainment unit now, who had been traveling internationally. To me that doesn't qualify as an epidemic. We're doing what is possible, warning people about proper washing, staying home when they're sick, minimizing personal contract in churches and schools. What we really need is progress on a vaccine and anti viral drugs. That's where the government could help by funding and prioritizing research.
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DeleteUpdate to above: basically the whole town of Fremont NE has been shut down due to the patient, mentioned previously, having attended a sports event and the local VFW before she became seriously ill. She had visited health care providers three times with more minor symptoms prior to being diagnosed with Covid 19. Here is where more availability of testing could have flagged the illness before so many people were potentially exposed.
DeleteCovid19 will throw the lack of local daily newspapers into high relief. People are focusing too much on what Trump says and not enough on reporting and testing procedures in their municipalities ... because the info isn't there.
ReplyDeletePapers no longer exist in these areas with trained reporters who do more than write up social announcements and cover high school sports. Instead, people Google things and get sucked into a vortex of alternative facts, stories about what the government has done or should be doing, and backgrounder about China's wild animal markets and zoonosis.
Local info about number of cases, testing centers, self-isolation, school closure plans, and nursing home/day care precautions are unknown and unnecessarily stoking fears.
Trump could do everyone a favor by shutting up.
He won't blame it on Obama. Mr. Pence has been set up to be head #1 when they start rolling. Can a president fire a vice president? Ask Sen. Graham. He'll say yes.
ReplyDeleteDr. Anthony Fauci (part of the deep state) will provide the second or third head to roll because he had to correct The Don in public when The Don announced we'll have a vaccine any day now, maybe even before we have test kits, we'll see.
Also positioned to be #2 is Nancy Messonnier, head of the CDC and sister (! gasp) of Rod Rosenstein, who didn't shut down Mueller when The Don made his wishes known. Messonnier was hired by Alex Azar, secretary of HHS, who probably will simply be made to disappear and never even appear on the hit list. Take the cannoli.
One thing is certain: It will NOT be The Don's fault.
I don't know if they are blowing smoke, or what, but Israel is saying they are close to "having a vaccine. Apparently they were already working on one for a genetically similar corona virus. The WHO estimated previously that the soonest a Covid 19 vaccine could be expected was 18 months. If the Israeli researchers are successful they could shorten that by more than a year. It is interesting that this would be an oral vaccine.
ReplyDeleteGood to know the rest of the world isn't waiting on the USA to lead the way.
Herewith a link to a site that gives updates: daily summary on the Corona virus by states and counties along with links to state information web sites.
ReplyDeletehttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18oVRrHj3c183mHmq3m89_163yuYltLNlOmPerQ18E8w/htmlview?sle=true#
I found the info on Talking Points Memo, which describes the people running the site. Looks like a volunteer effort organized by data guys from biomedicine.
Link: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/key-source-of-covid-19-testing-infection-data
P.S. The data is said to be incomplete because some states are not releasing numbers, or at least not in a timely fashion. Presumably this means that the charts may represent an under count at least for some states.
ReplyDeleteThe charts, at least in this country, will always be useless. The World Health Organization says the incubation period is about five days (down from what they said earlier, but still five days). While you are incubating you can spread. That means if you wait until people are symptomatic, you are five days behind all the people they spread it to. I am pretty sure, from listening to him, that The Don doesn't know that. What he does know is, you don't have to treat what you don't count, and you can't count if you don't test.
DeleteIn other words, beyond the official numbers, there is a ghost army of infected people out there. Many will, as The Don says, go to work and cure it that way. Or not.
If anyone is interested in the biology of the corona viruses, here is a good article from Scientific American explaining it.
DeleteAddresses the question, "what's with the bats and viruses?"
DeleteBats. I found a dead one on the screen porch. He was totally dry like a mummy. I put him in a baggie as instructed by the vet and called the necropsy guy at the DNR. He said Mr. Bat had been dead too long to worry about, but mentioned that rabies and other diseases can live dormant in bats for a long time, so blood, feces and saliva can infect other animals easily. They can be super carriers of some diseases.
DeleteApparently they have a low key immune system that works to keep the germs in abeyance rather than eliminating them. My guess is that it has something to do with the problem that they can't lie down and rest. We are disabled temporarily by our immune systems. They need to be able to keep moving.
DeleteYes, interesting animals! They don't lie down, but they hang there in an almost comatose state in the day time. Before we found the hole in the screen where they were coming in, we often saw one hanging on the screen near the eaves. I guess they can be easily moved in that state, but you have to be careful not to break their little toes while dislodging them. We found it easier to just leave the door open for them to fly out at night, then spray the area with bleach.
DeleteOne difference between the SARS epidemic and this one is that SARS was relatively limited. About 8000 people got sicjk, and 800 died. The mortality rate was much worse but the spread was more contained. SARS was limited to about two dozen countries while this one has spread to about 76 and counting. Last I read about 106,000 people were known to have been infected compared to the 8000 SARS and 22,000 Ebola. Ebola was pretty much limited to a couple of African countries and is there now. The mortality rate was about 45%, probably because of the lack of medical infrastructure. Fortunately this coronavirus is less lethal, but it has spread very far.
ReplyDeleteOur first local cases involve someone who was sitting shiva at a retirement place about 2 miles from our home. One of the Nile cruise passengers who are now showing up sick all over the country. Those who are going to church should know that the first confirmed case in DC is the rector of an EC church in Georgetown. They are trying to find out how he got it and have shut down all church services and activities. He wasn’t on the Nile cruise!
There is a history of politicizing epidemics. Beware the Deadly Contagion Spread by Blowhards
ReplyDeleteIdeology is getting in the way of science.
Initially Democrats and Republics were equally concerned about the swine flu. However because Obama was president, conservatives began opposing the swine flu vaccine, including Rush Limbaugh and Glen Beck. Trump assured people it was going to go away.
The conservatives had an effect as subsequent studies showed. People in red states were less likely to get the vaccine and were more likely to die of the swine flu.
Trump had better be concerned about minimizing this virus. The deaths of Trump supporters in key states might erode his margin of victory.
Rocco Palmo warns church officials.
ReplyDeleteWhile US dioceses’ response to coronavirus to date has been limited to liturgical precautions, as cases tick up, what’s needed now is rapid response/contingency planning in the event a case emerges at a parish, school, etc.... Chanceries, contact your public health officials
As a reminder of the scale here, the US church comprises over 17,000 parishes, 7,000 schools, thousands more charitable works, and on and on. And these days, one case in one place – and its handling – is going to be felt at every Catholic entity in the country, so be prepared.
My Scranton Diocese just stopped wine, communion on the tongue and shaking hands during the kiss of peace. Also drained the holy water fonts.
DeleteStan. That is where we are. The security guard pointed out to me Sunday that a lot of people went by the holy water font, stuck their hands into the air and blessed themselves. How deeply felt are our religious observances! OTOH, some of the on-the-tongue receivers have been quite huffy about it, the EMHCs tell me; a Host turned up in the trash bucket yesterday. It must be only a matter of time before we go to the full Milan.
DeleteOur parish had their annual day of recollection on Saturday for those involved in RCIA. It is held at the Benedictine retreat center near here. Since there was only one candidate this year, a 13 year old boy, they opened it up to others. We ended up with about 20 people. Usually these things tend to be rather touchy-huggy. Noticeable difference this time; they asked people to refrain from physical contact. Probably just as well for the 13 year old. They kind of want people to stay out of their space. Fortunately another kid, a friend of his, had been recruited so he wouldn't feel like the only kid in a room full of elders.
DeleteIn an email, Steve Bollman, CEO of Paradisus Dei (creator/operator of the That Man Is You pogram) asks an interesting question: Where are the calls for prayer?
ReplyDeleteThat used to be S.O.P. in times of epidemic. (Bollman recommends a rosary a day.) Is everybody above asking God for help?
That was one of the Mass petitions this morning, asking God to help the doctors and scientists working to heal and contain the virus. Didn't this used to be a line in a litany, "From plague, pestilence, and famine, O Lord deliver us"?
DeleteYes, definitely we should all be praying for God to come to our assistance and to make haste to help us.
Not in the prayers of the faithful so far. At home certainly. Two Hail Marys = 20 seconds, the recommended hand washing time. Just sayin'.
DeleteI asked a Church Lady yesterday if the Hail Marys I say that are allocated to the coronavirus victims and health care workers can also be claimed on their Walk to Jerusalem project, or if that's double-dipping. And, if my prayers can be allocated to the walk, can I contribute the prayers to Raber's pledge card because I didn't sign up for the Walk? AND, if I can contribute through Raber's pledge card, can I claim the two miles per day prescribed by my physician, or can I only claim any distance above two miles as indicated on my pedometer? FInally, are any indulgences involved?
I confess to you my brothers and sisters that I do this stuff on purpose sometimes ...
Kaltherine, I thought the line was: "From ghoulies and ghosties and long-legged beasties and things that go bump in the night,Good Lord, deliver us!'
DeleteJean, I am sure all the answers to your question are in at least one paper-covered booklet from your pamphlet rack that the ladies saved so they could reply to heathens. But go in peace, my child; your "stuff" has been forgiven.
Tom, not to mention, "From the fury of the Northmen, O God deliver us!"
DeleteOh, the Church Ladies had answers at the ready! They said Raber should do his own praying for the Walk, and it was too late for me to sign up. Which is fine by me because the idea of writing down how much I pray strikes me as an exercise in pride, individually and collectively. Bring back the rice bowls!
Delete"In praying, do not babble like the pagans, who think that they will be heard because of their many words." Matt 6:7.
DeleteWalking to Jerusalem is just another way of "storming heaven with our prayers." I've always suspected one of the angels' jobs is dumping flaming oil on the heads of storm troops when they start up the siege ladders.
Random thought, one of my grade school teachers was a nun named Sister Corona Marie. What with the corona virus, I'll bet she's glad she went back to her given name after VatII, if she's still around.
ReplyDeleteAnother random thought. They ate recommending fist bumps or elbow bumps instead of shaking hands for a greeting. That doesn't appeal to my admittedly fuddy-duddy formality. I would prefer a namaste bow.
ReplyDelete"ate" should be "are" above.
DeleteMy sister-in-law is doing namaste. I am doing elbow bumps, and waving the v-sign instead of running around the pews as we used to do.
DeleteYeah v-sign of peace. Amazing how fast we got through the sign of peace at the Mass for our day of recollection on Saturday. Normally all the people there would have had to go around and hug each and every one.
DeleteThe coronavirus has officially arrived in Cleveland with three persons testing positive. Two of them were on the Nile cruise where others have gotten inflected.
ReplyDeleteOne was at CPAC. He was not the only one who may have been inflected by a person at that conference who had the virus.
The NYT reports Two Republican Congressmen who were at that meeting have isolated themselves after being warmed that they were in close proximity to the inflected person. Both have been in close proximity to Trump before they knew about the inflected person.
One road back to Washington with Trump on Air Force 1 and was warned in mid flight that he had be near the inflected person.
The second Congressman toured the CDC with Trump before he learned of his exposure. Neither are experiencing symptoms.
Well, if the coronavirus doesn't get me, some tick-borne diseases will. A whole winter in PA without a really deep freeze. We had a high of 70°F yesterday. People are saying, "oh, I'm so happy winter is over" Yeah. The #%!# ticks are happier. A friend told me opussums eat lots of ticks. Haven't seen one in years. Hope they're out there.
ReplyDeleteUgh, I hate ticks. When I was a kid our dogs would always go down by the river and pick them up in the spring. One time one of them attached in my hair. My aunt, who was a nurse, got it out by putting chloroform on it. Nowadays I don't even think you can buy chloroform OTC.
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ReplyDeleteThese things should be deleted....
DeleteIn case you didn't know, from Medicare:
ReplyDeleteRemember: Medicare covers the lab tests for COVID-19 — you pay no out-of-pocket costs. And Medicare also covers all medically necessary hospitalizations.
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