One of the stickiest wickets is the Irish question. If Northern Ireland is to stay part of the UK some solution must be found to the question of being in-or-out of the single EU market. The Republic of Ireland does not want a border constructed and I would bet a lot of Unionists don't want one either. Teresa May has fudged the issue to assure the continuing support of her government by the Protestant-like UDP (Ulster Democratic Party). Now the EU has issued what looks like an ultimatum: May must make up her mind.
"The EU will prepare a draft of the U.K. withdrawal treaty that envisions Northern Ireland remaining in the customs union — essentially issuing an ultimatum that London come up with other options or accept that there is no other practical way to avoid the recreation of a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said Friday." Brexit Ultimatum--Politico.
Perhaps part of the fascination lies in the fact that this is not an American problem--at least, not yet.
BUT CONUNDRUM CONFUSION:
"What I am sensing is that people who voted Brexit in good faith are now saying, ‘Hold on, that’s not what I voted for, and I want a final say,’” Mr. Davies said, listing promises made during the 2016 referendum, including one — later ruled misleading by the country’s statistics authority — that quitting would free up 350 million pounds a week, or about $486 million, for health spending.
“You
should have the right to look again, and say: ‘You ordered a steak and
you ended up with a bit of chewed up bacon. Do you want to accept
that?’” Mr. Davies added, arguing that Britain faces higher inflation
and slower growth, and that, far from getting money back, it has offered
around 39 billion pounds, or about $54 billion, in divorce payments to
the European Union.
"Mr.
Davies and others have also pounced on recent reports that the areas in
Wales and central and northern England that voted most strongly for
Brexit are set to suffer the greatest economic harm from the rupture.
"Experts
say they have detected a subtle shift, in Wales and elsewhere. Though
few people admit to changing their views, there is growing support for a
vote on the terms of any Brexit deal, according to Roger Awan-Scully, a
professor of political science in the Wales Governance Center at
Cardiff University."
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/10/world/europe/uk-brexit-second-referndum.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
I follow the Brexit situation closely also. The Irish problem is a big problem. Scotland has said it will have another independence vote if England can't find a way to keep Scotland in the customs union also. A "secret" economic report was leaked a week or two ago that shows that the decline in economic growth following a hard (or even soft) Brexit would be far worse than the pro-Brexit folk have let on. I think they shot themselves in the foot with Brexit, but I can follow the news without the same angst I feel in following the politics in the US. My field was international economics, and I continue to take a strong interest in what is going on internationally. England needs Europe more than the EU needs England. Pulling out of the TPP seems to be one of Trump's hasty moves that he is now perhaps regretting. Perhaps some competent advisors have gotten his ear. He has dropped some hints that he would reconsider it as long as he can make sure the US isn't "taken advantage" of. He's handed trade dominance in the Pacific Rim to China pretty much now.
ReplyDelete"Pulling out of the TPP seems to be one of Trump's hasty moves that he is now perhaps regretting."
DeleteI consider it his single worst decision so far.
It's pretty clear that Brexit was not well-thought-out. And to some extent it is an American problem. The UK has provided many American firms with English-speaking EU market presence. Expect Ireland to benefit mightily as American firms seek a friendly alternative within the EU for their European offices and headquarters.
DeleteI suppose the possibilities for shenanigans, scams and exploitation of gray areas are nearly endless, should the outcome be that Northern Ireland is both within the EU and within the UK. At its closest point, Northern Ireland and Scotland are just 12 miles apart. I'm foreseeing a superhighway of customer-evading boat traffic. At least until Scotland declares its independence and joins the EU. Then maybe they'll need to rebuild Hadrian's Wall.
Regarding the possibility of a "dual identity" for Northern Ireland as part of the EU and also part of the UK: for many years, Hong Kong has had a sort of dual identity, rooted in its history as a city that was simultaneously Chinese and a British protectorate. China seems to see it as in its self-interest to permit Hong Kong to continue in that vein since Britain ceded it back to China. That dual identity helped Hong Kong to grow into one of the great cities of the world. Could something analogous be Northern Ireland's future? It's a happy thought anyway.
DeleteI wrote, a couple of comments back, "I'm foreseeing a superhighway of customer-evading boat traffic." I meant customs-evading boat traffic.
DeleteNigel Farage, Boris Johnson and their twittery sold the British voters on a square circle, and Teresa May is stuck with it. (You ought to read my pen pal's -- since 1943 -- letters about his fellow Brits; fortunately, I have Trumpoleons to counter with.) As far as I can tell, the pro-Brexits still expect to have all the benefits, as they see them, of union without any of the deficits (foreigners, or wogs, as they used to say). At least four times the Europeans have made it clear that Britain cannot have the sweet without taking the bitter as well. At least four times May has seemed to reject that reasoning.
ReplyDeleteThe shock that Britain would have to pay for the EU but couldn't vote during the year it spends shaking the dust off its feet was fully expected and predictable. Maybe some of the Brexit nuts are truly surprised, but there is no way May can be. She is using smoke and mirrors to push the dawn off to some future day when maybe Labour can get itself together and take the Parliament and the gain. (Unlikely, but what else does she have?)
Well, you swallow snake oil, and you don't get cured. This mess may lead to the reunion of Ireland outside the disUnited Kingdom. Who woulda expected that? For my part, if Nicola Sturgeon takes Scotland out of the dUK, the Outer Hebrides start to look atractive again. Hoot mon!
"get itself together and take the Parliament and the blame.
ReplyDeleteScotland and Wales majority voted against Brexit. It's possible that both will disunite the kingdom (DK!). Then England will have border problems too.
ReplyDeleteSince the Northern Ireland Storemont has not met in a year because the political parties have fallen out, it is being run by the civil servants. Would it be that much trouble for the Republic of Ireland simply to share its parliament with the North, let the civil servants run the place, deny this is unification, and solve the problem? Though I see the Republic is have its own parliamentary shut down at the moment.
Scotland voted strongly against Brexit - 62% voted for Remain. The majority in every region of Scotland voted against it.
DeleteWales supported Brexit. Northern Ireland did too - 55% for Brexit.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36599102
I wonder how many Brits are having buyer's remorse. Any chance they would be able to get back in, with a different government? Or maybe by now the EU doesn't want them back, and thinks, "They made their bed, let them lie in it."
ReplyDeleteMy pen pal says the Brexit vote would lose big if it were held today. He says the loudest pros have discovered they will be the first losers. Duh.
DeleteWales voted for Brexit. It was stupid and shortsighted. Wales is a very poor region, and benefited from EU improvements in infrastructure and tourism, but people don't see financing, what they see are "foreigners" whom they think are taking jobs.
ReplyDeleteA friend tells me that computers crashed throughout the region tje day after the vote when pundits started listing all the stuff Wales would lose as a result of Brexit and people wanted to see if it was true.
A sad story of an ill-informed electorate that believed fear-mongering xenophobes.
Golly, where have we seen that before??
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36612308
Thanks for the accuracy. Mistook Wales vote for the London vote.
DeleteOf course, the EU is going to drive a hard, perhaps impossible bargain, to keep any other country from trying the same thing. Poland is up in arms now about various matters.
ReplyDeleteThe risk of another Brexit vote in the UK is that voters will go for it again, but it does seem there is a good deal of voter-remorse in many quarters.