US Gen Z and Millennials Leaving Morman Church
Jana Riess
December 10, 2025
Alex Bass, as part of his Mormon Metrics Substack, has analyzed data from several national surveys while helping me and Benjamin Knoll with the quantitative research for our forthcoming book on the Mormon faith crisis. As always, when we’re looking at data about a small minority, we need to be mindful that the margin of error can be high. With this in mind, each of our graphs includes the error bars to show the range of possible findings.
The first graph from the General Social Survey, which asked about childhood religion as well as current religion, shows we’ve gone from retaining over three-quarters of childhood LDS members through the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, to keeping around 40% in the 2020s — a statistically significant drop.
In 2007, according to Pew Religious Landscape Studies, the LDS church retained 70% of childhood members in the U.S. (n = 581) In 2014, that was 64% (n = 661), and in 2023–24 it had declined still further to 54% (n = 525).
That 54% current retention rate looks better than the GSS’ 38%, so that’s potentially good news for LDS leaders. But once again, we’re witnessing a clear drop from the fairly recent past. Both major U.S. surveys that track childhood affiliation are saying that more people are leaving than used to.
Other religions used to envy our retention of youth. As sociologist Christian Smith put it in his recent book “Why Religion Went Obsolete,” the LDS church was once “legendary for its impressive retention rates among young people.”
Smith was the lead researcher 20 years ago for the National Study of Youth and Religion. That longitudinal study’s findings were so positive for the LDS church that they were written up in the Church News and trumpeted by the church’s official newsroom in 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2013.
But the data isn’t so sunny anymore, according to Smith’s research. “While Mormon retention looked solid in the early 2000s, in the years since, as Millennial Mormons moved through emerging adulthood, they began exiting the LDS church in dramatic, unprecedented numbers,” he wrote.
According to the GSS, only 29% of Greatest and Silent generation members left the church in the U.S. That increased slightly to 33% for the baby boomers and 37% for Generation X. Then it shot up to 55% for millennials and Gen Z
Ben’s analysis of Pew’s most recent data tells a similar story. The next graph shows a drop in retention between those born before 1960 (where 70% stayed LDS) and those born since 1980 (where only 49% stayed). The precise percentages aren’t the same as those of GSS, but the generational trajectory is.
I want to make one final observation. Both of these same surveys clearly show that those Mormons who remain identified with the church are often deeply religious. That’s true of LDS Gen Zers and millennials too: The ones who stay in the church are far more religiously devout than other Americans their age.
I’ll explore that more in the next column, but for now let me just say that more than one story can be true, even in the same data set.
My cousin and her ex-husband were visited by Mormon missionaries in the 70’s, shortly after their marriage. They converted and remained in the Church until their divorce. My cousin now drinks wine and her Ex has been married several times. Not sure about his status. My cousin’s one daughter is now an Evangelical. The other lives near Salt Lake City so I’m not sure. Her son’s only religion is money, as far as I can tell. No one has turned to the Catholic Church.
ReplyDeleteWhen Catholics and Mainland Protestants began losing their young people while the Evangelicals and the LDS were not, the sociological explanation was that strict churches which demanded more of their members (e.g. the Catholic Friday abstinence practice) were more likely to keep them. That follows from the evidence that organizations that have strong initiation processes usually produce members having a greater value for their membership.
ReplyDeleteNow it appears that younger members of these more demanding religions are following the same exit route as the more liberal churches.
Of course, as Jana suggests, that does not mean that young very observant LDS members leave the church.
The lesson for Catholicism may be that emphasizing doctrine, morals, and practice does in fact produce a smaller purer church but at the cost of great numbers of potential members.
Catholicism has always been the model for the great church that attracts many people of different races, ethic groups and classes. Part of the way that Catholicism has been able to do that is because of the abundance of different spiritualities and saints as models. Catholics can be very different from each other without separating themselves into smaller purer groups.
Adopting some strict practices, e.g. celebration of the Hours, praying the Rosary often, meditative prayer, fasting, serving the poor, etc. may be more important in retaining Catholics than weekly church going, or beliefs.
Our local bishop whose pastoral letter emphasizes fifteen minutes of daily prayer, having a spiritual support group, being able to talk about one's spiritual journey and having specific mission projects may be going in the right direction.
Your comment sparks an interesting question in my mind:
DeleteDoes the Church only want well-catechized individuals who are thoroughly familiar with Catholic teaching and beliefs, and are prepared to obey them without question? The smaller, purer Church?
Or does it want a wide variety of adherents, including those who are fuzzy on teachings or reject some teachings, maybe resist being "churchy" but bring their kids up in the Church, identify as culturally Catholic, and subscribe to basic "love your neighbor" Christian (but not specifically Catholic) principles?
Like Jack said, more than one story can be true. The church can want the well catechized members, but also want to keep the more cultural ones who are a bit fuzzy on teachings. I think they try to engage the ones who aren't as well catechized to try and get them learn more. I see in this week's bulletin that our parish is giving away copies of Matthew Kelly's book, "The Seven Pillars of Catholic Spirituality", saying that the initiative aims to inspire and encourage people to cultivate lasting spiritual habits in the coming year.
DeleteThey've given away Matthew Kelly books before, and while I'm not a particular fan, I'll keep an open mind and read it. I'll say for him that he doesn't seem to be political or focused on culture war issues.
I think learning more is what drives a lot of people away.
Delete"Does the Church only want well-catechized individuals who are thoroughly familiar with Catholic teaching and beliefs, and are prepared to obey them without question? The smaller, purer Church?"
DeleteA few random thoughts:
* I think the church shouldn't insist on being well-catechized as a precondition for membership. Christians should look upon catechesis - or better, faith formation - as an on-going, lifelong endeavor. Personally, I think folks whose starting point is outside formal attachment to the church should receive enough formal instruction to have a reasonably clear understanding of what they're freely choosing to join, with the understanding that one can go much, much deeper if one is willing - and we have the rest of our lives to do so. The "much deeper" should be understood to mean, "deeper in faith" and "deeper in spiritual experience", at least as much as "deeper in knowledge".
* The church shouldn't want to be smaller and purer, if that means driving out those who are viewed (by whom?) as being insufficiently pure.
* That said, I think there always will be social and cultural forces that make the church tend toward being smaller. I think the basic tension is: there are things about Christianity that some non-Christians find attractive, and evangelizing efforts will attract these seekers; but these social and cultural forces will cause some of these evangelized to fall away. I think this was the pattern of the New Testament church, which the Parable of the Sower attempts to explain.
* The religious milieu of the New Testament was syncretism: by and large, people tended to borrow whatever elements of a wide variety of religions seemed practical or relevant: a smidgeon of nature-deity paganism, a dash of mystery religion, a dose of official Roman cult of the emperor. Over and against this, the early church insisted on the primacy of God, and a rejection of everything else. I guess we could say, it was more demanding than syncretism. But it also offered spiritual riches: personal experience of the risen Jesus and the Holy Spirit that, I daresay, many contemporary Christians never, or almost never, experience.
* The standard view of Roman Catholicism as an institution of secretive, celibate-but-not-really, powerful and wealthy men in odd vestments, shouldn't be the essence of what the church is all about; and if that is people's perception, then the church is failing in its mission.
"... there are things about Christianity that some non-Christians find attractive, and evangelizing efforts will attract these seekers; but these social and cultural forces will cause some of these evangelized to fall away ... which the Parable of the Sower attempts to explain."
DeleteThat sounds about right, but the Parable of the Sower is kind of a zero-sum game. I wouldn't say that the seeds sown during my sojourn in the Church fell on my soul as if it were barren soil.
My faithlessness may not let me into Heaven for eternity with the rest of you (assuming there is a hereafter where God sorts us all ou), but I have probably lived a better life for the experience than I might have done otherwise.
FWIW - I don't recall anything you've shared with us that would lead me to think should despair of being with God forever. I think you should continue to be honest about difficulties and qualms, and live in hope.
DeleteNo one should despair, but a lot of us might want to revise our expectations.
DeleteI think Jesus saves a few of us from the finality of death to live in Heaven.
And many more of us from being complete pains in the ass to others while we live out our lives here.
As I take stock of my life, I am content and give thanks that Jesus helped me squeak into the latter camp, though there are still a few things I need to do penance for.
I think that youth retention has a lot to do with whether kids grow up immersed in a like-minded community. I would bet that kids in mostly Mormon towns in Utah stay in the church. Social and familial ties, as much as religious belief, keep denominations going. Thinking of my Amish in-laws, for ex.
ReplyDeleteOur town has a few Mormons. Sometimes you will see young people very neatly dressed, in pairs walking around. Chances are they are doing their two years of mission work. They volunteer for a lot of things like literacy projects and food pantry. My husband will chat them up when he sees them around. Mormon theology seems kinda weird, but I have a favorable impression of the ones I've met.
ReplyDeleteWhen young Mormons leave, do they become Nones?
ReplyDeleteAccording to this article, most former Mormons don't join another church: https://religionnews.com/2024/03/07/who-is-leaving-the-lds-church-8-key-survey-findings/
DeleteA higher percentage of Mormons who leave are LGBTQ or are divorced.
Off topic, but is anybody sending out Christmas cards any more? I still enjoy sending them, but I think most people are not. I may have to give it up so as not to make people feel guilty for not reciprocating.
ReplyDeleteI send a few cards out. Mostly to people I won't see in person around the holidays. I won't see any of my siblings this year, so sending to them, and my 90 year old aunt. Some out of town friends. Some of the nieces and nephews do cards, some don't. I enjoy seeing pictures of their kids. If people have sent cards to us, I reciprocate. I am always late getting them sent, like today. I think that's okay, they will enjoy them the same. I don't do a "Christmas letter", but I do hand write a short note.
DeleteThat reminds me, I need to get a gift card for my sister whose birthday is Dec. 24. If I send it today it will get there.
DeleteI might keep a stack of New Year's cards on hand to write notes to reciprocate with people who still bother with cards. I think a lot of people are downsizing Christmas, which I am for when it comes to overeating and overspending. But as a "shut in," the cards were a nice way to keep in touch. Plus, they looked nice hanging on the door.
DeleteI do send them. I have a list of ~100 people to whom I send them each year. Relatives, friends, parish co-workers. I don't send them to my "day-job" co-workers. I have an MS Word list that prints Avery labels with their addresses, so the envelope addresses aren't handwritten.
DeleteBefore our kids reached adulthood, I used to sign the cards on behalf of everyone in the family, and I used to include a one-page Christmas letter with the conventional reporting/bragging of milestones (X graduated from middle school; Y got a new job; etc.). Now that they're all adults, I figure they can all send their own Christmas cards if they're so inclined (which they're not). That said: quite a few of my contemporaries' Christmas cards have gone from nuclear-family to multi-generation, as their kids have grown, married and had kids. Typically, the cards will include pictures of our friends, their adult children and the grandkids. I confess that, beyond a certain (narrow) degree of blood relations, my level of interest in other people's grandkids is pretty minimal, but at least feigning interest is one of those little marks of courtesy that keeps the wheels of society properly lubricated, I guess.
I used to do an "anti-newsletter" with book/movie reviews, a photo from our yearly camping trip (usually about the time The Boy had run out of clean clothes and had gone feral), updates on our many cats, and life's "highlights." People seemed to like it.
DeleteI quit about 20 years ago when my parents started going downhill. Life got grim at that point, and I couldn't muster the humor. I did save copies, and The Boy likes reading them.
I sent out a few cards in 2017 but couldn’t continue down the list after my niece and her husband were shot and killed in their home on Dec 22. A few years later I sent a few, then stopped again completely in 2023. By then most people were sending email cards and letters. I am working on one now, trying to respond to the few who still send us cards and letters and did so during the years when I just couldn’t face doing it. Watch your email😉
DeleteI used to get a jump on the Christmas cards and get them out the door by the first week or so of December. Many people who would receive one from us would then send us one. I used to suspect they were reciprocating; but this year I've been a laggard and am slow off the mark getting the cards out, but we've been getting about the same volume of cards from the same folks. So I am now trying to think more highly of our friends and relations.
DeleteI stopped writing our letter because our kids basically stopped hitting milestones. For the most part, they've finished college and are in jobs. They haven't gotten around yet to the pairing up with somone and generating grandchildren stage. Wish they would.
Religious affiliation appears is more about our relationships with the people around us and their practice of religion than with our relationship to God, or our religious beliefs.
ReplyDeleteFor example, the dynamics of becoming a member of a cult have been well studied because of the allegations of brainwashing. Potential members of a cult first hang out with cult members, then begin engaging of some of their behavior, and only finally in their beliefs.
In mixed marriages, the partner that spends less time with members of their own faith and more time with members of their partner’s faith is more likely to change their religious affiliation.
In the fifties there were less mixed marriages, and more people went to church. The option of replying “none” was not yet available on surveys. People were reluctant to identify themselves as atheists and agnostics. The idea that one could be spiritual but not religious was not readily available. Now people feel very comfortable with not having a religion because there are many people like them.
The Mormons convert people by inviting them to their homes for “family” night where they talk about the role that religion plays in their family life. Only after candidates are well accustomed to Mormon family life are they invited to congregational meetings and the beginning of Mormon religious education.
Just as Mormon affiliation begins in Mormon homes it seems likely that it begins to come apart there as Mormon marriages come apart and as they begin to relate to many non-Mormons in their homes, neighborhoods, and workplaces.
Catholics put a lot of emphases upon religious education (classes and schools) when children live at home with their families, but most of their children’s relationships will be with non-Catholics when they move away from home to go to college or take a job. They easily end up marrying non-Catholics.
Catholicism completely neglects the practice of praying the Hours either individually, in groups, or at home. As someone who has prayed the Hours from childhood, I think that practice has kept my religious faith far more than attendance at Sunday Mass or involvement in parish life. Those were not easy when I was in academia. Most of the time they were very boring. Searching for a parish was time consuming, and often unproductive.
My understanding of Catholicism is very sophisticated from a lifetime of study of scripture, liturgy, and spirituality. However, all that study is something that I share with only a few lay Catholics. Most of the clergy are very threatened by my intellectual activity so it is not something that bonds me to them or most of the members of the parish.
I wouldn't say my understanding of Catholicism is brainy or scholarly. But, no, the clergy and Church Ladies do not want to hear what I know about medieval hagiography. They wanted me to make CCD treats, take direction on decorating the Church, bus tables at Bingo and fish frys, and to keep my mouth shut. Which I did for 10 years until The Boy was confirmed. I expect that it was good for my ego.
DeleteKatherine - “ think they try to engage the ones who aren't as well catechized to try and get them learn more. …our parish is giving away copies of Matthew Kelly's book, "The Seven Pillars of Catholic Spirituality",
DeleteJean -“ I think learning more is what drives a lot of people away.”
As an adult, “learning more” about Catholicism did drive me away. I was quite devout as a kid. That lessened in college (a Catholic college) and I was ready to walk by the time I was 19. That was the year I spent in Paris, studying French at l’Institut Catholique. Le Cath was a hotbed of Vatican II theology, with lots of young priests from many countries studying for doctorates. Two of them, one American, taught our only non- French class - privately and in English. The American spent a lot of time with me drinking coffee in cafes, listening to all my questions and doubts. He told me about VII (this was shortly after its end, in 1966-67) and convinced me to stay. Our parish, after we married, was staffed with priests excited about VII. It had good adult Ed, bringing in priests from Georgetown, CU, and the several graduate seminaries in DC. These were “intellectual” classes and I learned a lot. I read a Matthew Kelly book once and thought it was aimed towards those at Fowler’s stage 3 of faith development. As my knowledge increased and my belief in Catholic/Christian teachings weakened, we still baptized the boys and sent them to Catholic independent schools after a disastrous year at a parochial school with our eldest. My Protestant husband always went along. I didn’t leave the RCC because of him, but because of its teachings. Liturgy is not something that matters much to me, but when it comes to liturgy, I prefer the ECUSA.
Cont. By my mid 30s I had engaged in extensive reading and study of Catholic teachings, and history, and biblical development. I read the catechism on the issues that most bothered me, and sometimes traced the footnoted sources all the way back. What an eye opener that was.A whole lot of teachings became cemented over the centuries by simply repeating what was written in earlier centuries. No development of thought - stuck in an ancient time warp. I was still an active Catholic, volunteering in the parish. But only because I was in the cafeteria, carefully choosing the parts I agreed with. The failure of VII because of JPII and B16 , and takeover of parishes by EWTN types drove me out completely. Francis sort of brought me back as far as paying attention to Rome. So far Leo seems good. But I doubt I will ever be an active Catholic again. I don’t believe too much of what it teaches and going to mass feels like hypocrisy. I did a superficial study of other world religions and decided that I would stay where I was planted. I liked Jesus’s teachings and didn’t much care if he was also a divine being. We are unchurched and have been since Covid, when we were still attending the EC parish. Formal church isn’t important to us. My husband is very private about his religious views, even with me, but I know that decades of tagging along with me to RC parishes didn’t convince him to convert! Both of us really prefer the EC approach - almost nothing is “ must believe” dogma or doctrine. In general we have found that the EC priests are very well educated and give more “ Intellectual” homilies (more interesting and challenging) than RC priests, who all seem to parrot the same stuff they were taught in seminary. The priests from the universities and grad seminaries gave much better homilies than most parish priests, but disappeared when the “ good” pastor left. By my 40s I was becoming more “ spiritual than religious” - much more drawn to spiritual teachers than religious teachers. That was a big attraction of CP for me - multiple denominations in the group, and religious differences were irrelevant. The point wasn't theology but learning to listen in the silence - to hear God.
DeleteJean - “ Church Ladies do not want to hear what I know about medieval hagiography. They wanted me to make CCD treats, take direction on decorating the Church, bus tables at Bingo and fish frys, and to keep my mouth shut.”
DeleteNot just the Church Ladies - but the majority of male celibate clergy too. “Be a good girl, don’t think, accept all teachings with “docility”, teach the children, decorate the church, iron the altar cloths, arrange the flowers, run the fund- raising events, set up doughnuts and coffee and clean up after. Most importantly - “keep your ideas and mouths shut - don’t question or challenge male authority. It’s God’s Plan”
Never heard of Fowler's stages of religious development, but sounded like something Unitarians would be all over. Yup. Here it is if it's unfamiliar to others: https://www.uua.org/lifespan/curricula/wholeness/workshop2/handout1-stages-faith-development
DeleteI've never had any one-on-ones with Catholic clergy outside of the confessional, which is very rote. Most Catholic clergy seem indifferent to and uninformed about what Protestants believe, so I didn't see the point. Plus priests and deacons are always seem way too busy to chat.
I enjoy talking with some Catholic lay people, but, of course, you run the risk of encountering unorthodox info on one hand, or a very rrigid transactional (you do this and God gives you that) view of faith on the other.
PS - the extra class with the English speaking priests - arranged privately by the nuns who ran my college - was Theology. I guess they worried we wouldn’t understand “ properly” in a French language theology class. There were plenty of those offered at Le Cath.
DeleteAI summary “ … L'Institut Catholiq” (Catholic Institute of Paris) hosted many brilliant minds…famous theologians linked to it include the controversial modernist Alfred Loisy, who taught there, and figures like Henri de Lubac, Yves Congar, and Joseph Ratzinger (Pope Benedict XVI) who were deeply connected to the broader French Catholic intellectual scene that included the Institute, influencing 20th-century theology, Vatican II, and shaping modern Catholic thought through figures like Karl Rahner and Hans Urs von Balthasar. ”
There are many ways to be Catholic, or Christian, for that matter. If one's thing is teaching catechism or feeding people, there is a need for that. If your thing is more intellectual pursuits, that fills a niche too. One of the canon lawyers for our archdiocese is a woman. I don't know any priests (in the 21st century) who insist that women keep their mouths shut and iron altar cloths. We have a woman who irons altar cloths, and a lot more. She's the sacristan. It's a paid position, and she isn't known for being silent and docile. Within limits, one can find their own niche. I don't know if I've found my niche yet; I'd probably better hurry, since I turn 75 in February. That hit me last night when we were talking to our oldest son on the phone, and he asked me, "Mom do you want to do anything special for your 75th?" And I was like, damn, I really am that old! I told him "Thank you for asking, but I really don't want to make a big deal about it!"
Delete"Catholicism completely neglects the practice of praying the Hours either individually, in groups, or at home. As someone who has prayed the Hours from childhood, I think that practice has kept my religious faith far more than attendance at Sunday Mass or involvement in parish life."
DeleteJack, if you don't mind my asking, what is it about the Hours that keeps you anchored? For myself, I think it is the psalms and canticles, as well as the intercessions. The psalms "work" on me in several ways: as a portal to God, as poetry, as a window into how people releated to God in Old Testament times.
Also, for me the practice of chanting everything is an important aspect of spirituality. I've recited the hours many times and don't find it nearly as spiritually rewarding.
Also, the way the cycles of saints and seasons are woven into the hours gives me a way of contemplating them.
Living the faith was never about sitting around reading books or reciting prayers for me. Got enough talk about religion as a Unitarian. I never got into Church Lady things to make pretty music or pretty decorations and vestments. Got that in spades as an Episcopalian. I had hoped that Catholicism would help me find ways to move outside my comfort zone to the people nobody wants in church. Instead I got obsessive about "pelvic issues." I probably was my most godly self as a teacher. I didn't give anybody God, though, just sympathy and books.
DeleteI was never able to find the Hours as meaningful as my husband does. He does find them anchoring, as you say. Clergy are obliged to pray morning and evening prayer, but he does all of them. Since clergy and religious all pray at least some of them, I dont think the church neglects the Hours. Maybe from the standpoint of a layperson there isn't as much encouragement.
DeleteKatherine, I am referring primarily to church teachings about women and to how many priests behave in parishes. I witnessed a couple of really nasty and disrespectful actions against paid professional women staff in our first parish, and have heard about it in others. There were younger JPII-B16 priests who thought they knew so much more than parishioners and were arrogant, especially towards women parishioners. There was an old priest who gave such a misogynyst homily on Father’s Day that I almost walked out. That homily was one of the many small things that led to my departure from the RCC.You are a member of the “ in crowd” at your parish, and you may have also been lucky to have good priests consistently. I haven’t experienced that - most of the priests in the two Catholic parishes we belonged to for more than 30 years were either meh or really bad. They didn’t like doubters and questioners. They didn’t like women staff who dared question one of their decisions. They didn’t like a woman challenging their interpretations of teachings. There were two priests total in 35 years - one at each parish - who didn’t assume that women in the parish were meant to do “women’s” work. God’s plan. I left the first parish after a new pastor ( the 5th we had in that parish) went so far over the line with his arrogance that I moved parishes. The second parish had the other “ good” priest. But he retired and then came a couple of EWTN type pastors. I gave up and we then went to an EC parish that was blessed with two amazing priests - one was male and one was female and together they were an example of true complementarity - not the pseudo one of the RCC that specifies that men have the authority in the church and in marriage, that men are “ active” and women are “passive” and that this is God’s plan. Both left the EC parish - the pastor retired, and the associate pastor moved to NC to be a pastor there. ECUSA rules prohibit the second in command to become a pastor in the same parish (the EC can do dumb things too) so we lost her. Covid came and we weren’t crazy about the replacement priests - a couple of bad choices there in a row. I may go back to see how the permanent pastor is doing. The parish is growing again after being almost decimated during Covid.
DeleteI admire many things about Catholicism, including the intellectual tradition, which is mostly ignored at the parish level. Mostly I admire the priests, women religious ( who are laity —because they are female) and the non- vowed laity who live the gospels, especially Matthew 25, in their lives.
Eeps! This convo is going in too many directions! I blame the Mormons! Off to tidy the house so Raber can put up a tree if he wants. I anticipate gall bladder surgery after Christmas. Supposed to be a breeze, and hoping that alleviates a source of discomfort. Anyway, will be offa here for several weeks after the first of the year, so that's why, and no need to check in.
DeleteJean, I'm sorry to hear you are facing gall bladder surgery. Will pray that all goes well and you heal quickly.
DeleteI attended an abridged but impressive performance of “Messiah” at First Presbyterian Church in Bethlehem, PA by a combined choir of young and older people with an orchestra of 15. It was nice to be so close to the excellent soloists. I couldn’t help but mouth the words. In a time of evil, it’s great to have sacred scriptural music wash over one. Such beauty.
ReplyDeleteI love the Messiah! Glad you got to hear a live performance of it.
Delete