"Major questions about Russia’s future remain after this weekend saw one of the most direct challenges to Putin’s authority in decades."
"Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s shadowy mercenary unit the Wagner Group, on Friday pulled his troops from the Ukrainian frontline to confront the Russian government. After apparently taking the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, a critical military outpost just across the border from Ukraine, Prigozhin and his troops sped toward Moscow, coming within 200 kilometers of the capital city before abruptly agreeing to send his troops back to the frontline."
"...The chaotic, fast-moving events at first suggested a potential coup, with Prigozhin threatening a march on Moscow and insisting he aimed to rout out corruption in Russia’s leadership. But within 24 hours, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had apparently brokered an agreement between Prigozhin and the government, and Prigozhin announced his plans to send his troops back to Ukraine, while he will live in apparent exile in Belarus."
"...Wagner mercenaries, many recruited from Russian penal colonies, have been a crucial part of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, but in recent months, Prigozhin has lashed out against Russian military leadership for its poor planning and decision-making, as well as what he saw as the lack of support for his troops. Prigozhin has had pointed conflict with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov about his group’s lack of ammunition,"
"...Prigozhin’s challenge to Putin’s authority was highly visible and caused very clear anxiety within Russian leadership. Security forces were on high alert in Moscow, even as life seemed to continue relatively normally."
"....Prigozhin has claimed to be the founder of the Wagner Group, but the reality is likely much more complicated. He is more likely the convenient figurehead of the group, which Russia has relied on for years to do its bidding around the world in places where it did not want to openly commit troops or resources, and where it could operate in a kind of gray zone. That, again, granted Moscow a degree of plausible deniability as it exerted its influence and interests in other corners of the globe, from Syria to Mali to Venezuela, often destabilizing countries and leaving a trail of potential human rights violations in their wake. It also gave Putin a kind of independent power center, a paramilitary outside of the formal military structures."
Just a few comments about the situation. For the most part, the US government appears to be keeping out of the situation, which is probably for the best. It's tempting to wish Putin was out of the picture, but Prigozhin is just as bad, maybe worse. If this coup attempt (the Vox article called it mutiny) had succeeded, it would have been destabilizing to Europe, and the world. There is a question of what effect it would have had on US politics, and possibly the 2024 election.
As it is, it seems to buy Ukraine some breathing space. But for how long? And it has demonstrated the limitations of the Russian military. They are maxed out and spread thin. Prigozhin and the Wagner group appear to want out of Ukraine. For now at least they have partially gotten their wish. The world, including the US government, is watching the situation warily.
And given Putin's methods of dealing with his adversaries, it would probably be a good idea for Prigozhin to stay away from balconies, windows, and staircases. And to open doorknobs with a paper towel.
You're right, Katherine. If Putin falls, what will replace him? If Biden's goal is regime change, he'd best reconsider. I would start negotiating with what exists and get this war over. An unstable Russia with internal divisions makes me worry about who gets the nukes. And if Wagner had gottten nukes, what would have happened?
ReplyDeleteBiden had this to say on Monday,
Delete"They agree with me that we had to make sure we gave Putin no excuse ... to blame this on the West, to blame this on NATO,” Biden said of U.S. allies in remarks from the White House on Monday. “We made clear that we were not involved, that we had nothing to do with it. This was part of a struggle within the Russian system.”
I tend to believe him, this was not a problem that the US or their allies needed. Especially with the question of who has the nukes.
This is David von Drehle in the Washington Post:
ReplyDelete"They say a bird that walks and quacks like a duck is probably a duck. Events in Russia that looked like a military coup, and were initially interpreted as a coup by Putin, were probably an attempted coup — until the coup fell apart.
"Which coups typically do. In an exhaustive study of coup attempts from 1950 to 2000, scholar Naunihal Singh identified the central challenge for all coup planners. Detailed planning for the attempted overthrow of an authoritarian government is too dangerous. Dictators — such as Putin — organize their entire governments around ferreting out such plans and crushing them. A coup attempt must begin, therefore, with a bold move by a small group, with hopes others will join in. There is no plan, Singh wrote, only hopes and beliefs. “Each individual’s choices are based on his or her beliefs about the likely actions of others.”
"As Prigozhin motored up the highway toward Moscow on Saturday, he surely had a sinking feeling. The uprising he apparently hoped to inspire inside the Russian Ministry of Defense was neither up nor rising. Like coup planners in Turkey in 2016 and Venezuela in 2020, Prigozhin issued an invitation to a spontaneous overthrow of the government, but no one showed up.
"The wild card in this case was the government’s reaction. Putin evidently had no more confidence than Prigozhin as to the outcome of the clash. Rather than test the loyalty and strength of government forces to crush the uprising, the Russian leader grabbed the first exit he was offered — a sign of weakness that might invite another attempt."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/26/russia-coup-prigozhin-putin-ukraine/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most