Some may remember a post of mine a while ago in which I mentioned my three technology prayers: controlled fusion, room temperature superconductor and space elevator. Well, there's been a big milestone at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore Laboratories in California. A ten nanosecond (ten foot long) pulse from a Neodymium:YAG (Nd:YAG) laser was split and amplified until 192 pulses converged from different angles onto a sphere impregnated with deuterium the size of half a BB pellet. 2 megajoules of energy went in and three megajoules of energy came out, a 50% surplus. That's enough energy to power a 1000 watt microwave for almost 17 minutes. It was produced in nanoseconds. .
This is a very significant milestone. A torus shaped tokomak in Scotland surpassed breakeven this year but the surplus was only a couple percent. I am truly gratified to hear of this accomplishment but there is still along way to go. News reports don't mention the "wall plug efficiency" of the lasers. Knowing what I remember of Nd:YAG lasers, it probably took at least 20 megajoules of energy going into the lasers to generate the one megajoule of fusion energy. So I will continue to pray that we will eventually reach this endless source of energy and benefit humanity.
To be complete, I'll put my Debbie Downer hat on and mention that a lot of funding probably comes from the military because it advances understanding of nuclear fusion in thermonuclear bombs without having to perform actual bomb tests forbidden by treaty. Unfortunately, the bad stuff is a lot easier to do than the good stuff. But I'm praying we achieve that "sun in a bottle".
Stanley - yes, I've read about this experiment this week. It seems we're decades away from fusion becoming a practical source of consumable energy, but to reach the end of the journey, one must start it. And sometimes, human ingenuity has a way of reducing decades to just a few years.
ReplyDeleteI have seen a few mentions in the media that fusion energy could be so cheap and efficient that it would be unmetered - consumers wouldn't be charged for using it. I have to say, I'll believe that when I see it. And even if the energy generation is virtually zero-cost, infrastructure will be needed to deliver it to consumers in a usable format, so I expect there would always be operational and maintenance charges to be covered.
I certainly agree with your view that this will be harnessed for military purposes. Humans are what we are: seething cauldrons of hatred and ambition. Cheap energy isn't sufficient to transform human nature; for that, we need God to become man and establish an alternative kingdom. Come, Emmanuel.
The military funds most projects that result in major technological breakthroughs. My husband’s very small company ( it had 20-30 employees depending on how many contracts they had at any given time) was involved with fusion research projects many years ago. Their main client was DARPA. For example, the original internet was developed by DARPA - it was called ARPANET.
DeleteDoD research is done for military purposes, but there are countless examples of advances in consumer technology and products that are also the result of the military research projects. But, as Jean notes, once the technology is incorporated into the consumer sector by private companies, there is a price. The companies have to make a profit in order to produce the consumer spin-offs. Fusion energy to the consumer will never be free. But it might still be a good thing for human beings.
Will one of the hurdles be patents, Stanley? Where discoveries are made, people expect to be paid, and that makes new tech very expensive and available only to the elite, often for decades.
ReplyDeleteFor ex, my assumption is that the transition to electric cars could go much faster if there were a public program to mandate them and to fund supporting infrastructure. (Recently visited the next town over and noticed three well-dressed women in stiletto heels trying to figure out how to use the charger at the municipal parking lot next to the arts center. Raber was going to lurch over there and offer to help, but I told him to let the rich solve their own damn problems. Then we had a discussion about my lack of Christian feeling at Christmastime.)
Another thing I assume is that the societal structures that support scientific achievement will begin to crumble with climate change. Global warming is fueling weather disaster even now that distract and siphon funds for short term relief, even as they highlight the dangers of climate change. So even if we do get a bead on fusion, we won't be able to apply it widely.
In my area, farmers and those in exurbs are fighting wind and solar farms like crazy. When they hear how much heat is involved in fusion, they'll have fits over that because they are dumb and get info from Truth Social.
The Washington Post recently ran a long story on climate change scenarios. Most of them involved the planet warming beyond hoped-for limits (overshooting) before any kind of amelioration (if any) would occur.
Time is not on our side. But I will join your prayers.
Jean, I am getting a laugh out of the mental image of the ladies in stiletto heels, and your husband's impulse to be gallant. Afraid my reaction would have been similar to yours.
DeleteYes, Jean, I agree that green technologies should be available to everybody, not just the rich. I am not optimistic about our chances for arresting climate change but my optimism or pessimism is irrelevant. It's best to go down trying to do the right thing.
DeleteStanley, I saw that too. I can't help but feel that it is exciting. Sure, the ability to actually use fusion technology in a practical way may be years away, but you have to start somewhere. Low or no cost energy would also solve a lot of downstream problems. Such as water shortages (we aren't actually short of water, it's a matter of having potable water in the right places). Low cost energy means desalination plants could be practical. Low cost energy would also enable people to live in hot places and cold places affordably. The end effect of fusion on climate change couldn't help but be beneficial.
ReplyDeleteSo yeah, I join my prayers to yours that we can do this.
I agree with the idea that while this is a great development there will be hurdles.
ReplyDeleteThe government, especially the military, does not have the average consumer as its priority, unless that would also generate tax revenue. The government is more likely to support development by private enterprise that benefits the rich.
Private enterprise is ready to step in if there is a profit for them. There are no incentives to develop cheap technologies when more expensive ones bring higher profits.
This technology is more likely to be adopted by the rich, and the middle class before the poor.
However the pace of technology development seems to be increasing, and its adoption by the average citizen and the poor also seems to be increasing.
At eighty I doubt I will see any benefit from this technology, but it may well be the future of young people.