A covid surge in Western Europe has U.S. bracing for another wave
Basic Data From the Report
"Germany, a nation of 83 million people, saw more than 250,000 new cases and 249 deaths Friday, when Health Minister Karl Lauterbach called the nation’s situation “critical.” The country is allowing most coronavirus restrictions to end Sunday, despite the increase. Britain had a seven-day average of 65,894 cases and 79 deaths as of Sunday, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Research Center. The Netherlands, home to fewer than 18 million people, was averaging more than 60,000 cases the same day."
"CDC data shows that, as of last week, BA.2 accounted for 23.1 percent of all new coronavirus infections in the United States, the largest percentage yet — up from 13.7 percent the week before. But BA.2 accounted for more than 38 percent of cases last week in parts of the Northeast and New England."
My Observations
1. In the past when there have been surges in Europe, we get a surge about a month later.
2. The pattern in Europe has been that Omicron BA.2 has been replacing Omicron BA.1. How quickly that occurs differs from nation to nation. Our pattern is that Omicron 2 is replacing Omicron 1.
3. All the evidence is that Omicron 2 is even more contagious that Omicron 1 which has been described as being as contagious as measles.
4. Monitoring of sewage has shown increases in Covid waste in 38% of the sites over the last two weeks. Such increases have predicted case rises in the past.
5. All the evidence is that Omicron 2 is like Omicron 1 in its severity, i.e. most cases do not require hospitalization, those who are hospitalized have shorter stays, less likely to be in intensive care, or to need oxygen, and are less likely to die from Covid.
6. On the other hand, because it is so contagious, even more so that Omicron 1, the case numbers are so high that it could overwhelm hospitals, and ICU units in some places.
7. The net result is that the USA still has over a thousand deaths a day; currently amounting to more than 968,663 deaths. We are on track to have over a million deaths total in less than a month. According to recent death estimates we already have had more than a million "excess" deaths during the pandemic. Around the world "excess" pandemic deaths are about 3 times that "recorded" deaths. Our under recording is only about 10%.
8. Talk about "immunity" either due to vaccination or infection is distorting the picture. All "immunity" means is that if we are either vaccinated or infected by any variant, our immune system is primed and we will likely overcome a variant more quickly and therefore having a shorter and less severe illness.
9. We are still in a pandemic because the essence of a pandemic is that we cannot predict the course of the epidemic. A virus only becomes endemic when we can predict the course of future rises and falls of the virus.
10. Most of the victims of this virus have been the elderly and those with major heath problems. Some dismiss the deaths of the elderly because they would likely have died anyway from some other conditions in a year or two. However there is nothing that prevents that next variant of the virus from attacking us in a different way that causes many more deaths especially among children and the young.
11. My first concern is that if a new high death producing variant occurs we are going to shut down the world economy just like in the early days of the pandemic because people are simply going to stay home whether or not the government tells them to stay home. Governments and experts are really losing all their power to persuade people. The present policy of "hiding" deaths because they are among the elderly will become untenable. A great amount of social and political instability could result.
12. My second concern is that we are in the process of developing a de facto policy of allowing for "natural" euthanasia by virus of the elderly and those with severe health problems. That contrasts very much with our use of extraordinary even extreme means to preserve life in many situations. Many of those who are dying have problems of obesity and diabetes that in many cases could have been prevented with a better life style. Are we going to say that it is their fault? The pandemic is already forcing us to rethink family life, jobs, and the world economy. Are we going to rethink health? All of t his while dealing with the distraction of dictators who are flirting with nuclear war!
I keep a cloth and K95 mask in my purse in case I go inside a crowded space. I no longer go to restaurants, theaters, church (including indoor weddings or funerals). I am watching the news to keep up with Moderna booster regs.
ReplyDeleteThe odds are that I will be dead within another 6 years from one of my ailments. So I made sure tgere's a little extra insurance mobey for Raber and The Boy, I have paid down debt, have given away most of the family heirlooms, and I am getting some home repairs done. My doctors know I only want palliative care.
Americans do not value the old and sick unless they are powering through their adversities and acting like they were still 35.
So I feel kind of fatalistic about it all. I live one day at a time. I enjoy my family and don't make long-term plans
I think "one day at a time" is good advice, no matter what one's stage in life. I don't think there's ever been a time when the world wasn't going to hell in a hand-basket. We just didn't know about all of it. Not sure it's a better situation now that we do. We have to detach from some of it in order to stay functional.
DeleteAmericans do not value the old and sick unless they are powering through their adversities and acting like they were still 35.
ReplyDeleteWhile most of the time, I have the energy to act like I am in my fifties or sixties, Betty has noted that I have a really good "helpless old man" act when I need it. It sometimes is useful.
I am operating at a level of decrepitude I didn't see in my parents until their 80s. Makes me wonder why in hell I bothered to quit smoking and drinking!
DeleteJean,
DeleteI haven’t detected any lessening of your intellectual functioning on this blog. You still have many interesting things to say in each comment, say them well using words very efficiently and well.
I know you gave up posting a while ago. I suspect that might have to do with your energy level rather than your intellectual functioning.
I once read a study that said that our ability to organize and think about our store of knowledge actually peaks around age 65 then begins to decline so that around age 80 we are back around where we were at age 50. Most of our other intellectual skills e.g. recognition and recall, peak in our twenties much like other physical skills.
Don’t worry, Jean, your mind is as sharp as ever. You often make the most insightful analytic comments here.
DeleteJean can clarify what form the “decrepitude” takes if she wants to - or not - but I wouldn’t be surprised if the treatments for the blood cancer impact physical energy level fairly dramatically, and maybe have other physical side effects.
I’m now 74, quite a bit older than Jean. I don’t deal with a chronic disease, have no regular prescription meds, but my energy levels are distinctly lower than just a few years ago. I don’t think my mind is going yet at least. I fear that more than physical decrepitude actually. I try to slow the physical decline by walking a couple of miles most days, eating right, and maintaining a healthy weight.
I’ve always been a voracious reader, and can’t break the work habit of researching and analyzing subjects of interest, since I did that for years. So even though I don’t need to produce some kind of report for someone now comparing international health care costs, or charting the rise and fall of oil prices over the last 40;years, or whatever, I do it anyway because of frustration with news reports on diffèrent subjects - misleading, incomplete, out of context, or just plain wrong.
Maybe it will slow the mental decline a bit. :)
I try to get in about 8000 steps a day in walking or on the treadmill. That is important for my mental activity as well as my heart. When I developed my balance problem almost ten years ago it affected me mentally as well as physically. In fact I was diagnosed as mildly cognitively impaired. Turnout out that all improved when I got the physical therapy that allowed me to use the treadmill again.
DeleteI am not worried about my mental acuity, but thanks for the reassurance. Always good to know one is able to string together coherent ideas!
DeleteThe worst part of chemo is that it messes with your moods, immune system, and creates brain fog. The cancer itself triggers a variety of inflammatory and vascular problems from asthma to gout to migraines to visual distortions that the chemo doesn't address.
Regular exercise and dietary changes keep the worst at bay, but some setbacks recently have made the exercise harder. Hopefully some med adjustments will help.
Trying to dodge covid on top of that has often seemed more trouble than it's worth, but patients with blood cancers tend to be the ones that clot up badly. Plus compromised immunity caused by chemo means you are more likely to catch something and infect others. So you have to look for ways to curtail your activities but balance mental health needs.
Jean, whatever brain fog you have burns off before it gets to your posts. The quality of your posts makes me forget sometimes all the stuff you're dealing with.
DeleteWe are all dealing with a lot of stuff these days. I will say that world events helps put my little troubles in perspective. I often find myself saying the Dog's Prayer: Thank you, Lord, for today I am warm, I am safe, I am fed, I am loved. Help me show my gratitude to you by being friendly, loyal, and brave. Amen.
DeleteJean, that’s a wonderful prayer. It is pure, not asking for anything except for help in being a good person. I will remember that one.
DeleteI hope this blog keeps folks sharp. It makes me think, every day.
ReplyDeleteJack, this was a very good post. I expect our cases will start ramping up again by the end of spring. It becomes a question of whether we still have the appetite/will to put masks back on, allow workers to quarantine without firing them, check vaccination status at the door of the restaurant, teach school over Zoom, et al.
FWIW - our governor announced today that the BA2 variant accounts for 25% of new cases in Illinois. So far, hospitalizations continue to drop.
ReplyDeleteThe days of mask mandates are over, except for health care settings, is my guess, especially if a pill that will reduce disease severity becomes available, never mind whether it is affordable by anybody.
ReplyDeleteHealth depts and the CDC will continue to update rec's, but elected officials don't want the death threats and late-night phone calls and visits that go with mandates.
Plus mandates were not and could not be widely enforced. As far as I know, nobody refusing to wear a mask was jailed unless they were deliberately coughing on people, tearing up mask displays in stores, or actively harassing people.
According to the WaPo, more parents are sending their kids to private schools that espouse mask rules (and curricula) they like better.
Conservative Christian churches have been in the vanguard of resisting mandates and trying to link this with freedom of worship.
Covid and Trump supplanted politics and religion as the two topics that divide many families.
The cost of the pandemic on social cohesion might be worse than the death toll, though I don't know how that might be quantified by the analysts when they start toting up whether the billions spent on assistance, the billions lost by business, etc. to see if all these measures were worth it.