A New York Times article reports on how pregnant women in Texas are coping with a restrictive abortion law which took effect last year. Perhaps unsurprisingly, and despite the new law, most Texans who desire an abortion are still able to terminate their pregnancies.
This past December, the United States Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Dobbs vs. Jackson Women's Health Organization. In that case, the Court is being asked to rule on the constitutionality of a Mississippi law which restricts most abortions after 15 weeks. The Court is expected to issue its ruling in early summer.
Attorneys representing the State of Mississippi in the case are requesting that the Court overturn Roe vs. Wade. Of course, this has been the goal of pro-life conservatives for decades. For many years, Republicans have been working assiduously to attain a decisive majority of Supreme Court justices who could reasonably be expected to vote to overturn the case law which has controlled the legality of abortion in the US since 1973. Based on last December's oral arguments, pro-life activists are hopeful, and pro-choice activists are terrified, that the Court will indeed overturn Roe.
Of course, predicting a Court decision based on the justices' questions and demeanors during oral arguments is a risky undertaking. Nobody knows what the Court will do. It may keep Roe in place. Or it may overturn Roe completely. Or it may take the "half a loaf" approach, electing to keep some provisions of Roe case law in place while overturning others.
Despite the legal uncertainty, it's widely anticipated that, in just a few months, the regime of Roe vs. Wade will be a thing of the past. Many Americans (but not all) think this development would not only represent a landmark ruling, but also cause a political and cultural earthquake. After all, women of childbearing age have had a Constitutional right to an abortion for several generations now.
What will women do if Roe is overturned? In the New York Times, Margot Sanger-Katz, Claire Cain Miller and Quoctrung Bui report on two research studies out of the University of Texas at Austin which suggest: if the experience in Texas is any indication, women will continue to get abortions.
Since September of last year, Texas has been conducting what amounts to a social experiment. At that time, a new law went into effect which bans most abortions. The law in question, known as the Texas Heartbeat Bill, is controversial in a couple of ways:
- It bans abortions after a fetal heartbeat is detectable, at six weeks of fetal development, which is considerably more restrictive than previous standards under Roe vs Wade. Historically, most abortions have taken place after six weeks; in some cases, a pregnancy isn't even detected until after six weeks
- It permits private individuals to sue any party who performs or facilitates an abortion which would be illegal under the new law.
The latter provision is an innovative and controversial legal stratagem which makes it difficult for courts to issue injunctions against the law. A typical law would specify that a state official such as an attorney general is responsible for enforcing criminal penalties; a court could stop such a law from taking effect by enjoining the state official from enforcing it. But there are no criminal penalties in the Heartbeat Bill, and no state official is responsible for enforcing the law. Instead, the bill relies on private citizens (think: pro-life activists) to enforce the law by filing lawsuits directly against individuals involved in the provision of an abortion. Even if courts rule against a specific private-citizen plaintiff in a particular lawsuit, the same defendant who "performs or facilitates" abortions is still eligible to be sued by other private plaintiffs. Because or the litigation risk, Texas abortion providers have stopped performing abortions when the fetus is over 6 weeks.
The Texas Heartbeat Bill took effect on September 1, 2021. At the top of the NY Times article is a chart (which I hesitate to reproduce here, as I'm not sure it would qualify as fair-use) which shows the following:
- In-state clinical abortions: prior to September 2021, Texas abortion providers performed about 5,500 clinical abortions per month. As soon as the new law took effect last year, that number dropped to about 2,000 abortions per month. The number has begun to creep upward in recent months but it appears to be below 3,000 clinical abortions per month.
- Requests for abortion pills: Prior to September 2001, pills were used for a few hundred abortions each month. After the Heartbeat Bill took effect, the number of pill-induced abortions tripled to about a thousand abortions each month. The authors report that this increase is facilitated by a single out-of-country mail order abortion pill provider; as other, similar businesses don't make their data available for analysis, the authors believe the true number of abortion pill requests is higher.
- Out-of-state clinical abortions: Prior to September 2021, getting an abortion across state or national lines was an insignificant, even tiny percentage of abortions obtained by Texas women: it appears to have contributed about 200 or fewer abortions each month. After the Heartbeat Bill took effect, this number has increased significantly, to about 1,400 abortions per month. The article reports this is 12 times the pre-Heartbeat Bill number.
Overall, the findings of these studies confirm what would have been our best guess: women who want an abortion are highly motivated to travel to get one elsewhere, if one isn't available nearby; and the lack of in-state clinical options is causing more women to be willing to try abortion pills.
As more states restrict abortions or - if the upcoming Supreme Court decision permits it - ban abortions completely, we should expect to see more women engaging in "abortion tourism", and in administering abortions themselves in the privacy of their own home.
As abortion law continues to evolve and change, pro-life activists will need to adjust their tactics. The experience in Texas suggests that legislation and court decisions won't end abortion. Praying or picketing near an abortion clinic may become a thing of the past in some places, as clinics in some states become less relevant in providing abortions. Those of us who support the sanctity of life will need to turn away from politics, and toward the harder work of building a culture of life in our own families and local communities.
Jim says
ReplyDeleteThose of us who support the sanctity of life will need to turn away from politics, and toward the harder work of building a culture of life in our own families and local communities.
Just as I expected, all the politics seems to have had only a marginal effect upon abortion, but of course in the process has gone a long way toward destroying our democracy by electing Republicans.
Will the prolife voters who have inflicted Trump and right-wing politics upon our nation come to their senses, and vote Democratic? I think the vast majority will not. They are not about to admit to all the collateral damage their war on abortion has caused. We have become a partisan nation that only believes in my party, right or wrong.
However, my hope is that there will just be a marginal few Republicans, enough to affect close elections, that may save us from Trump and his crowd.
I am predicting that Trump will not be the next Republican candidate for president. He makes long rambling asinine statements nearly every day, and people are noticing the emperor's lack of clothes. Of course one of his fan-boys could get the nomination and that would be nearly as bad.
Delete"all the politics seems to have had only a marginal effect upon abortion"
DeleteAs a political issue, abortion has had a lot of "valence", strongly motivating some voters and candidates. But the electorate is split on the issue, so highly motivated groups may tend to cancel out one another's efforts. Of course, Roe vs. Wade supersedes many restrictions that legislatures might otherwise impose.
If Roe case law is overturned, red states will impose many restrictions, but those restrictions end at the state borders. Absent a consistent national policy, I think we should expect that political and legislative measures won't do much to reduce the incidence of abortion.
The number of abortions has been decreasing for many years, but the reasons for that decline can't be attributed directly to politics. (Personally, I think the primary reason is more widespread use of effective birth control, perhaps coupled with more responsible sexual behavior.)
If we think Roe vs Wade was a bad decision - and one can think that for several reasons - then it's surely true that overturning Roe, should that happen, will be because of politics. Count me among those who think the country is better off without Roe, even if overturning Roe doesn't actually reduce the number of abortions very much.
Delete"Will the prolife voters who have inflicted Trump and right-wing politics upon our nation come to their senses, and vote Democratic? I think the vast majority will not."
DeleteI agree, they probably won't start voting Democratic anytime soon. Unless Democratic party activists and leaders become more tolerant of pro-life Democratic candidates, the Democratic Party won't appeal to pro-life-motivated voters.
That said: pretty clearly, a realignment is underway in American politics. When I was young, it would have been unthinkable for business and financial elites to be major Democratic fundraisers, but that is now true. Likewise, that working-class white men would vote Republican. In the last presidential election, Trump did surprisingly well with Hispanic voters, and even drew more Black voters than expected. The old coalitions don't really apply anymore.
Overturning Roe won’t be a nationwide a “ ban” on abortion. It will just go back to the states. And the same thing will happen in states that ban abortion as has happened in Texas - women will travel or buy pills online.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime the whole country continues to suffer because of what Jack correctly observed is the severe “ collateral damage’ inflicted by the so called pro- life movement throwing millions of dollars into the campaign chests of right- wing extremist politicians.
Trump may not be elected again, but the poisonous politics he spawned will continue it’s steady movement towards destroying our country.
I'm not going to place all the blame on the pro-life movement for the right-wing swing. It apparently been a world wide attraction; look at India, Brazil, Turkey, etc. Not to mention the right wing getting stronger in places such as France. In most of those places the pro-life movement isn't a thing. What I am willing to blame pro-life and other movements for (the Democrats are not immune!) is a certain cynicism. As long as they get what they want, they are willing to turn a blind eye to bad behavior and authoritarian tendencies.
DeleteWhat Republicans learned during the Paul Ryan era is that minimal-government conservatism doesn't actually have much political appeal in the US anymore. That vacuum has been filled by culture-war issues (abortion, immigration, "owning the libs"); those seem to be the glue that holds the Republican coalition together these days. Of course, populist conservative media (Fox News and even-more-right-wing cable news networks, right-wing radio, and now social media) has played a big role in creating and sustaining this (rather dysfunctional) phenomenon.
DeleteOne of the great political mysteries of our time is, "What do people who support Donald Trump, actually see in him?" I think the answer is: Donald Trump is himself a culture-war issue. Consider: Trump is not really much of a doctrinaire conservative. Apparently he was a Democrat for many years (and a pro-choice Democrat to boot). I don't think he underwent much of a philosophical conversion. In fact, I don't think he has a philosophy beyond whatever feeds his ego. His enormous ego tells him, "You should be president". As he has no actual principles or views, he went about figuring out what to say at rallies that would make people cheer (because getting applause strokes the ego). And he found a group of people who was primed by conservative media to cheer the culture-war red meat. Trump metastasized the conservative culture-war movement. The rest is (a very low point in American) history.
And we can see the Trump-as-culture-war-issue dynamic playing out across the aisle. Just mentioning Trump's name drives many Democrats and progressives berserk. If it's true that Trump hasn't let the 2020 election go, it's equally true that Democrats haven't, either. They're continuing to investigate him in the House, they're searching (rather fruitlessly, apparently) for crimes to charge him with at a state level, and I've now read that a well-funded group of Democratic lawyers is going after Republican lawyers who worked on behalf of the Trump campaign during the post-election period, seeking to get them disbarred or similarly canceled.
So in my view, liberals and progressives are part of the massive social dysfunction called Donald Trump. Culture-warrior conservatives can't stop loving him, and culture-warrior liberals can't stop loathing him. In our culture-war-laden times, driving the opposition berserk is satisfying and addicting.
For a conservative of my stripe, this is all very unappealing.
If Roe gets overturned by the Supreme Court, I think what we'll see is a short-lived tornado of glee and outrage, followed by a gradual cooling of temperatures around the issue of abortion. Abortion as an issue won't go away, but over time it will cease to be a front-burner issue. It will become more of a local issue, and less of a national issue. But its spot in our incessant culture wars will be filled by other issues. For a while, it was vaccines and masks. Tomorrow, it will be something else.
I agree, Katherine, although the prolife movement has been a strong oar puller for the right. The tendency toward fascism is deeper and broader and seems to thrive in times of economic insecurity. Economic systems are too abstract for people to blame. It's easier to blame some fiendish group for our problems. And a "strong" leader promises to take the reigns of those things hard to understand even though the strong leader doesn't understand them any better.
DeleteWhile abortion has not been an issue in many countries, religious fundamentalism has been a large contributor to the rise of right-wing nationalism: Trump in US, Putin in Russia, Modi in India, and all the fundamentalist movements in Moslem countries.
ReplyDeleteAll these various fundamentalist national movements seek to impose their religious values within their own countries and see other groups both within and outside their countries as the enemy.
Abortion within the US, especially among Catholics has become a fundamentalist belief, as if it were the only important issue in politics and/or religion.
Trump isn't religious himself (he holds a bible as though he's never held one in his life), but religious conservatives certainly have glommed onto him as their political champion. What we see in the US, Iran and perhaps the other nations you names is the conflict between traditional, religious ways of life on one hand, and more secular ways of life on the other. In Iran, it is an urban-vs-countryside phenomenon; the US more or less shakes out that way, too.
DeleteJack - further to your point about religious fundamentalism: David French provided these quotes from a recent message from Patriarch Kyrill of the Russian Orthodox Church:
DeleteOn Sunday, Patriarch Kyrill delivered a message that tied the conflict to Western advocacy for LGBT rights. Here are two key paragraphs:
"For eight years there have been attempts to destroy what exists in the Donbass. And in the Donbass there is rejection, a fundamental rejection of the so-called values that are offered today by those who claim world power. Today there is such a test for the loyalty of this government, a kind of pass to that “happy” world, the world of excess consumption, the world of visible “freedom”. Do you know what this test is? The test is very simple and at the same time terrible—this is a gay parade. The demands on many to hold a gay parade are a test of loyalty to that very powerful world; and we know that if people or countries reject these demands, then they do not enter into that world, they become strangers to it."
And:
"Therefore, what is happening today in the sphere of international relations has not only political significance. We are talking about something different and much more important than politics. We are talking about human salvation, about where humanity will end up, on which side of God the Savior, who comes into the world as the Judge and Creator, on the right or on the left. Today, out of weakness, stupidity, ignorance, and most often out of unwillingness to resist, many go there, to the left side. And all that is connected with the justification of sin, condemned by the Bible, is today a test for our faithfulness to the Lord, for our ability to confess faith in our Savior."
This is culture war rhetoric, in service to an unjust invasion. Patriarch Kyrill is the closest equivalent Russian Orthodoxy has to a pope - he is supposed to personify moral authority. Where is the witness to peace and justice in his words?
And how is Kyril's rhetoric materially different from a southern fundamentalist preacher's stuff? I understand why Pope Francis is trying to reach out to this branch of orthodoxy. But I can't help but feel that it is just as lost a cause as trying to deal with the Pius X Society. Sometimes you just have to move on.
DeleteLots of states are trying to limit the window for abortion, not ban it completely. This is a reasonable approach and polls show it’s supported by a majority of Americans whereas a total ban is not supported by the majority of Americans.
ReplyDeleteTexas cut it off so early that many women don’t realize they are pregnant at that point. The bounty system they created is vile.
Two thirds of abortions take place by 8 weeks and 90% are done by the end of the first trimester - 12 weeks. The six week cutoff is supposedly when a heartbeat can be detected, but that’s not really true. The heart isn’t formed by 6 weeks. But the process of developing a heart does begin then and signals are picked up by the ultrasound machine which aren’t actually heartbeats.
https://www.livescience.com/65501-fetal-heartbeat-at-6-weeks-explained.html
The Mississippi law that will be heard by the Supreme Court cuts off abortion after 15 weeks - 12-16 weeks is when most European countries ban abortion except to save the life of the mother. The extreme pro- choice people might oppose this, but the extreme anti- abortion people might also. In a religiously pluralistic country, limiting abortion to the first 15 weeks ( better yet, to 12 weeks) might be enough to reduce the damage that has been done in the political realm and allow the country to move on to other matters. I do know a number of single issue voters who claimed to dislike everything about trump but voted for him as he was quite willing to give them what they wanted on abortion and rake up their votes. During his first campaign a reporter asked him if he had ever paid for an abortion. He didn’t answer other than to say “that’s an interestingly question.” Given his bragging about his promiscuous lifestyle, it’s very likely that he paid for more than one abortion and signed the women to NDAs along with some hush money.
Anne, I largely agree with you. But I'd suggest that Mississippi set its limit at 15 weeks, not out of some desire to be reasonable and bipartisan, but because under Roe's current interpretation, that's as far back in the pregnancy as it can be restricted. (That is, until Texas broke new ground, but many people agree with you that Texas's legal approach is dodgy, and in fact it may turn out to be an innovation that comes back to bite conservatives on other issues.)
DeleteIf Roe is somehow overturned or set aside, and states become free to legislate their own abortion laws, Mississippi could be one of the states that would ban abortion completely (perhaps with some exceptions for "hard cases" like rape and incest). And then we'll see pregnant women in Mississippi engaging in abortion tourism, or ordering mail-order pills.
"If Roe gets overturned by the Supreme Court, I think what we'll see is a short-lived tornado of glee and outrage, followed by a gradual cooling of temperatures around the issue of abortion. Abortion as an issue won't go away, but over time it will cease to be a front-burner issue."
ReplyDeleteReally? The issue didn't die down with the anti abortion contingent after Roe, and I can't see the pro abortion wing going quietly, especially since, for good or ill, a majority of Americans support abortion in at least some circumstances.
"Those of us who support the sanctity of life will need to turn away from politics, and toward the harder work of building a culture of life in our own families and local communities."
I would argue that this would have been a better strategy as soon as Roe was handed down instead of the intense public moralizing and piety parades that did nothing to help women trying to make moral decisions.
"The issue didn't die down with the anti abortion contingent after Roe"
DeleteRight, but I don't think the two situations are comparable. If Roe goes away this summer, abortion will continue to be widely available in half or more of the states. Some states, perhaps including a few in our own Upper Midwest, may become contested battlegrounds. My state, Illinois, won't be among them.
I guess we'll see if Roe is overturned.
DeleteA lot of the pro abortion types see overturning of Roe as about much more than abortion--women and the patriarchy, religious interference in the secular sphere, revoking freedoms, etc.
They're like the anti maskers who see a whole bunch of inchoate "freedom principles" involved.
I expect violence against churches will be a depressing possibility, inasmuch as a handful of deluded anti abortion folks took to "executing" abortion doctors.
If the anti abortion folks had been more interested in winning hearts and minds rather than marching around with signs and shoveling money into political initiatives, I'd say you would have a stronger case for your optimism.
And if you are correct that abortion will still be widely available after an overturn of Roe, what does the anti-abortion side have to celebrate?
Something pro-life people need to be concerned about is the trend toward hospitals dropping obstetric services: https://www.vox.com/22923432/maternity-wards-hospitals-covid-19-pandemic
ReplyDeleteOf course this was exacerbated by the pandemic, but it was going on prior to that also. It makes it that much harder for women to find a place to give birth safely.
Katherine - that's mind-bending. Hadn't heard of that trend before.
DeleteSad but interesting, Katherine.
DeleteI first heard about ob/gyns discontinuing the OB part of their practices 26 years ago, when I was carrying The Boy. We had good insurance then, but my doc retired the year after The Boy was born.
His OB nurse said that Medicare reimbursements was not enough to allow doctors to carry amount of liability insurance they need. I presume it's the same for hospitals.
We live in a litigious society, and people are more inclined to sue when something goes wrong with a birth than for any other reason. I'm assuming there are at least a couple of things driving this: 1) People feel entitled to a "perfect baby" (no such thing!) and will sue for dubious reasons if the kid doesn't meet expectations in hopes the doc will settle out of court. 2) People are terrified at the cost of caring for a baby with an unexpected and serious disability and will go after deep pockets to pay for it.
I like to think that these are factors that people could work together on, regardless of their views on abortion.