Thursday, January 13, 2022

Co-morbidities and US Covid Hospitalizations: Updated!

A twenty-two minute video today from Dr.Campbell on why the US Covid Hospitalizations are so high:

 


First, he gives a lot of data to raise the question of why the high (and going higher) US hospitalization rate with Covid.

Then, he debunks the standard reason (these are incident) and reformulates the categories into:

1. Hospitalizations solely due to Covid (i.e., no comorbidities)

2. Hospitalizations with comorbidities (having Covid tips the comorbid patient to seek emergency help).

3. Incidental hospitalizations (someone injures themselves, goes to the hospital and is found to have Covid too)

He maintains because of American poor diet, etc. we have too many comorbidities, and suspects most of our cases are in Category 2. 

He says he was surprised that he could not find bread without added sugar on the shelves of grocery stores when he visited the US.


Abhorent’: Disability Advocates Slam CDC Director for Comments on ‘Encouraging’ Covid Deaths

Advocates for people with disabilities are voicing outrage about comments the director of the CDC, Rochelle Walensky, made on national television insisting it was “really encouraging” that the Omicron variant is predominantly killing Americans who have other health problems.

The Disability Rights Education & Defense Fund posted an open letter to Walensky on Twitter on Sunday calling the director’s remarks “abhorent”:

“Your words convey that the deaths of disabled people…are acceptable,” wrote executive director Susan Henderson. “Not only is this message from the head of the CDC abhorrent, it perpetuates widely and wrongly held perceptions that disabled people have a worse quality of life than nondisabled people and our lives are more expendable.” Henderson implored Walensky “reflect” on her words — and the potentially “fatal” consequences of “the bias behind them” — asking the CDC director to “change how you speak about the lives and deaths of disabled people.”

The CDC director responded: “The overwhelming number of deaths — over 75 percent — occurred in people who had at least four comorbidities, so really these are people who were unwell to begin with — and, yes, really encouraging news in the context of Omicron.” Walensky added a plug for getting vaccinated and boosted, before underscoring her earlier comment: “We’re really encouraged by these results.”

This is it,” tweeted Erin Biba, a noted science writer and contributor to WIRED. “Days and days of people with disabilities and chronic illness pleading for people to place value on their lives after the CDC Director admitted to eugenics policy, and the best she can do in response is nebulous, non-specific ‘taking steps.'”

Biba offered some advice of what the CDC could do concretely: “Send people N95 masks, free tests, support them so they don’t have to put themselves at risk,” she wrote, asking the CDC director to literally, “Do anything.”

30 comments:

  1. Two problems here:

    First that we live in a country that encourages lifestyles that raise the level of our co-morbidities.

    Second, if people in our country follow the advertising, eat poorly and have poor lifestyles, then they are solely responsible for their poor health.

    Again, the billionaires get richer by encouraging poor lifestyles, deny medical aid to those who develop chronic illnesses, and then think it is the responsibility of those with such illnesses to isolate themselves while the healthy members of society continue earning money for billionaires.

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    1. "... they are solely responsible for their poor health."

      Sigh. Americans have a very punitive response to sickness.

      Can't tell you how many times people demand to know *why* I got cancer and want to chalk it up to something I must have done--always something my interlocutor has *not* done. I guess it's their way of a) feeling morally superior and b) comforting themselves that they won't get the Big C because they didn't do what I did. (Which is inherit my dad's genes. Three out of my six cousins on his side of the family have a rare blood cancer.)

      Truth is that many factors go into poor eating habits and co-morbidities, starting with what your parents fed you as a kid, your genetic make-up, your stress levels, your income, etc. Many of these factors are beyond your control.

      Raber and I have eaten the same meals for nearly 40 years. I have always cooked from scratch. I watched salt and fat. I never had sweets in the house outside of a box of graham crackers. We never bought pop or chips. He ended up with diabetes and a heart attack at 66, but I didn't. Clearly, something besides poor eating habits is at work.

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    2. I should add that food deserts are a problem in poor areas. And what I see at food pantries and soup kitchens often constitutes little better than gas station food--predominantly canned and boxed meals loaded with salt, fat, sugar, and food coloring.

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    3. Dr. Campbell recently made a video on health interactions which emphasizes the complexity of things. In addition to you and Raber not having the same genetics, neither of you had the same psychological and social environments during those forty years. Even people with highly similar genetic backgrounds live in different physical, social and psychological environments that can change how genes get expressed.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uKqSmJBx0g

      In the case of my own high blood pressure, I have always wondered whether I would have high blood pressure if I lived a less stressful and less salt using society. If so, is my high blood pressure really more of a social disease than a physical disease? When I was first diagnosed with high blood pressure in my thirties, I was working at Saint Elisabeth Hospital in D.C. The doctor told me to quit eating the high sodium food there and check my blood pressure at one of their nursing stations. It went down to normal. For another decade I maintained my blood pressure by watching my sodium. When I left working at a mental health center to begin work at a mental health board, one of the staff members warned me that I was getting into a more stressful environment. "No matter how many times you side with an agency on an issue they think they deserve that, the one time you cross them on an issue, you are a terrible SOB." He was right, I had to go on blood pressure medication.

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    4. While I contribute financially to my parish foodbank, the thing I most enjoy is giving them some of the produce from my garden. That is always welcomed and goes quickly.

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    5. "I was working at Saint Elisabeth Hospital in D.C. The doctor told me to quit eating the high sodium food there ..."

      Ironic that hospital food may have played a part in your high BP, eh? The nurses taking care of Raber said that even the food on their "heart healthy" menu was not that great.

      I was glad we didn't have to make radical changes when he got home. The dietician also suggested I make changes slowly, over 6 to 12 months so that we had time to get used to them.

      "Even people with highly similar genetic backgrounds live in different physical, social and psychological environments that can change how genes get expressed."

      Yes, good point that could bear more scientific inquiry. Researchers now suspect that people may inherit a predisposition toward certain types of cancers once thought to be "spontaneous." Stress or some other environment "trigger" then causes the full-blown cancer to develop.

      "... produce from my garden. That is always welcomed and goes quickly."

      The local bank here told me that a monetary donation is always appreciated, because they work with local stores to get fresh produce, milk, and eggs. They also take donations from the 4H kids' gardens.

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  2. I think victim or patient blaming is counter-productive. It accomplishes nothing. And as Jack and Jean pointed out, to a degree we have to live with the genetic hand that nature dealt us.There are enough instances of younger people without any known comorbidities who died of Covid that it ought to give those who are making sweeping generalizations pause.
    About different outcomes for members of the same family, my mom died at age 68 of a rare type of lymphoma. She never smoked or drank, and believed in eating lots fruits and vegetables and taking your vitamins. Dad lived to 93, chewed Skoal or Copenhagen his whole adult life, and his favorite food was bacon. Go figure. When I turned 68, I wondered if my days were numbered. Which, my days certainly are numbered, but I've already outlived Mom by nearly three years.

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  3. On a personal note, they have finally hired someone to fill my job. She is a woman in her early thirties who has been a hospital lab technician. She is getting burned out there and wants a less stressful environment. She will start at the end of February, and I will hang around long enough to train her. I have liked the people and the work, but I also liked my retired slacker lifestyle. Which I will hopefully resume in a couple of months.

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    1. I have liked the people and the work, but I also liked my retired slacker lifestyle

      When I worked in the mental health system, I liked the people and the job too. In fact, I thought it was a privilege to do what I did. However, there is something about work for pay that is similar to slavery. My feelings when I ended my work life were well expressed by MLK

      "Free at last, free at last, thank God almighty free at last"

      My CEO agree with me and looked forward to being able to retire two years later.

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    2. Jack, LOL, I'm pretty sure I will feel like that too. I did the first time.

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    3. Spent some time today looking for info on John Campbell from vid above. His claims that Americans are getting hammered with covid because they are unhealthy--a conclusion he seems to have reached because he couldn't find bread without sugar at the grocery store here--struck me as somewhat facile and unscientific.

      Despite having nearly 3 million YouTube subscribers, he has not been picked up by main stream media outlets as a credible source of info or interpreter of info.

      Campbell is a retired nurse educator. He is not a virologist or epidemiologist. HI found about six peer-reviewed articles bco-authoredy JL Campbell about hypertension and nurse education.

      Campbell es been picked up by some of the covid fringe theorists, once for uggesting that it might be at the heart of Japan's low covid infection rate). And once for his concerns that and mRNA vaxes might cause heart attacks.

      His YouTube bio is here: https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg/about

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    4. I hope he's right about Omicron. It seems to be everywhere. I'm watching the curves for PA and my county of Monroe. After a remarkable spike, there is sign of a decline. I hope it's not noise but we'll see.

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    5. Oops, sorry, for typos. Keyboard went wonky. S/B, Campbell suggested ivermectin might have accounted for the low Japanese infection rates. Doctors in Japan said ivermectin was not being widely used or promoted there.

      State media here have reported an aggregate of research models that show a peak in Michigan to hit at the end of the month with a sharp decline thereafter. https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/worst-yet-come-omicron-michigan-officials-warn

      Whether Omicron is what gets us to an endemic phase seems to be a total guess at this point. Nobody predicted Omicron with any accuracy as far as I know. There seem to be many directions the virus could go next, with varying degrees of transmissibility and virulence.

      So far, the only pattern that's clear to me is that the virus mutates faster than our ability to predict it, faster than our ability to develop vaccines for it, and faster than some people's ability to take seriously.

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    6. So far, the only pattern that's clear to me is that the virus mutates faster than our ability to predict it, faster than our ability to develop vaccines for it, and faster than some people's ability to take seriously.

      I agree completely. Many people did predict that we would have something like Omicron that would infect vaccinated people. What few people predicted is that it would not be as threatening, essentially because it infects the upper respiratory tract rather than the lungs. However, there is no reason why the next variant could be as transmissible as Omicron and also infect the lungs.

      Thanks for doing the background research on Campbell. His talents appear to be the ability to organize and summarize data plus an ability to raise questions and provide alternative explanations. That is all good science. I don't view him as an expert but then the experts are not doing very well with predicting this virus.

      In predicting the future Campbell seems to be assuming that all Omicron infections will provide a great deal of natural immunity. However, I don't see that vaccines nor previous infections are giving that much immunity to Omicron. Its mild cases seem to be mostly because it does not infect the lungs.

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    7. There are, imo, too many people out there trying to interpret data and make predictions.

      Morally, our obligation is to protect and care for others, and I wish people would concentrate on that more than trying to gaze into the data. It's not rocket science:

      Check on your friends and family. If they get sick, offer to make deliveries, even if it's just leaving supplies on the doorstep or calling to remind them to check their temp and O2 levels.

      Take the precautions yr doctor recommends. Be willing to make a few sacrifices to keep others safe.

      Understand that others will not respond to circumstances the same way you do and act accordingly in communal settings.

      Be alert to community needs, whether it's buying masks for your church, giving blood, or restocking emergency pantries.

      Try to be cheerful and not demonize people who aren't doing what you think they should. It just makes them dig in worse.

      Remember to thank those helping you get through this mess.

      Don't hoard stuff. Share what you can.

      If you read about plagues and epidemics in the past, that's how people got through it with their humanity intact. It certainly tests my moral fiber, but aren't times like these what our faith is supposed to prepare us for?

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    8. Good thoughts, Jean. Wish more people would do those things. We wouldn't be in the predicaments we are if they did.

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    9. A fine list of corporeal and spiritual works of mercy during the plague. Maybe you should submit that to Commonweal.

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    10. I have nothing against interpreting data and making projections. That is what allows us to estimate what CO2 emissions will do to us in the future. In the case of the pandemic, I don't see it as being mutually exclusive with respect to the corporal works of mercy of which it is good to be reminded.

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    11. Stanley, I merely observe that a lot of people who are unqualified to make these predictions are running their mouths and mixing in their own half-baked theories and prejudices, and generally adding to the stress and confusion.

      I feel Campbell is one of these people, though prob not the worst offender.

      As a nursing educator, he would far more credible directing his energies in more practical than predictive directions.

      All imo, of course.

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    12. Apparently COVID home tests will now be covered by insurance companies and I assume by Medicare, too. My Fed Blue Cross/Blue Shield will cover eight tests per person per month. Of course, I have to send in a paper claim form. Also, not sure if the manufacturers will keep up with demand. Anyway, it's out there.

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    13. Seems excessive. No way Raber and I need 16 tests per month. We have 3 of the 4 tests I got off Amazon.

      I will go to covidtests.gov when the site opens Wed to see what the deal is thru the feds.

      I will likely end up sharing with The Boy and offering some to the humane society folks. Volunteers down there mask up, but they are still running exposure risks while helping our homeless animal friends.

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    14. P.S., Looks like the gummint will provide four free tests by household to help out. Must be that the 8 tests/person/month is what the feds say your insurance has to pay (assuming you have insurance or are on the dole).

      The note on covidtests.gov says:

      Every home in the U.S. can soon order 4 free at-⁠home COVID-⁠19 tests. The tests will be completely free—there are no shipping costs and you don’t need to enter a credit card number.

      Ordering begins January 19.

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  4. One of my fellow retirees came up COVID positive in a Rite Aid PCR test. He has been triple vaccinated and is 80yo. He's better now and the only symptom was a cough. I hope all the stories I hear are like that.

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    1. Sadly, a friend who went to the Landing hosp for an MRI found an unconscious man struggling for breath in a locked truck in the parking ramp. She found a security officer, who unlocked the truck and got him to the ER. Apparently these stories are not that rare.

      I was able to order my free covid tests this afternoon. Site is up, working, and took less than a minute to order.

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    2. Yes. Ordered mine. We'll see if they can keep up with demand. I already have a few I bought. I don't think I'll need them all but I can share with friends as needed.

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  5. Lake County Ohio had its recent peak new cases on January 2, as well as its peak sum of new cases for the last fourteen days which is my proxy for how many cases are active at any given time also on January 2nd.

    The fourteen day sum is now about half of what it was on January 2nd. Fitting a straight line we are coming down at about 3 to 4% per day.

    That means that in order to get back to last June's low of about 50 new cases for fourteen days, it will take us until sometime between May 1st and June 15th. So, we are currently headed to a June that may be much like last June. Hopefully we will not have another variant to mess up things like Delta did or Omicron is now doing.

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    1. PA continues to drop rapidly. My county of Monroe even more so. It will be interesting to see what follows this unprecedented peak. An unvaccinated Czech folk singer purposely infected herself with COVID to get it over with, but died. Vaccination is still the wisest precaution.

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    2. Children's Hospital of Philadelphia is warning parents against "covid parties." Geez Louise.

      https://www.chop.edu/news/health-tip/covid-parties-a-very-bad-Idea

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    3. Three of my aunts were born in Poland. Only one made it to the states. The other two died in Poland within one week of each other from the measles. Never a good idea to make kids sick. The 1918 flu left some survivors with a long lasting catatonia memorialized in that Robin Williams movie.

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    4. Everybody in our neighborhood had parties for measles, mumps, and chickenpox. The conventional wisdom was that after puberty, the illnesses were more serious, so try to get them over with by age 11. I think that was because mumps were widely believed to make teenage boys sterile.

      My mother-in-law was always worried Raber would get mumps because he didn't have them as a kid, but he said he thought the Navy vaccinated him for that.

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