As usual I am interested in planning for the Omicron variant. I was interested in how long it takes for a new variant to take over. The NYT has some interesting graphs for the USA
Coronavirus Variants and Mutations
Looks life for both Alpha and Delta that it took about two months for the new variant becoming present in our population to becoming the majority variant and then another two months before it dominated all other variants.
It is a little more difficult to estimate how long it will take for the new variant to become present in our populations.
Currently it looks like the Delta variant is going to have another surge, probably through Thanksgiving and Christmas. It the Omicron variant gets here during that time, the present Delta surge could develop into a very nasty Omicron surge that could linger from January through April.
On the other hand, if Omicron takes several months to get here we could have a short pause as the Delta Holiday surge declines in January through March. So there might be a break during April and May, and then an Omicron surge starting in the Summer like Delta gave us this past year. The Omicron surge whenever it comes could be very bad if it is a vaccine resistant variant.
For those who like colored graphs the following website gives the details about all the variants. It is interesting that both the variants and the waves play out differently in different countries.
Happy holidays... a shiny new improved variant. Because of course there is. The gift that keeps on giving, and giving...
ReplyDeleteAs I understand it, the mRNA vaccines can be tweaked for variants. Up until now they haven't been. But maybe now they should be updated.
Remember back in early 2020'when we thought the spike protein might not change much, and maybe one would have long immunity from having had the disease? Well guess what. Mother Nature can be a b#tch.
The variant appeared in Africa which has the lowest vax rate. No surprise in that. If we don't vaccinate all human populations in parallel, the pathogen evolves. There's only one thing that can possibly beat the virus. Solidarnoszcz.
ReplyDeleteStanley - great comment. To Joe Biden's credit, he is at least talking a good game (and I hope, more than just talking) about getting hundreds of millions of doses to countries that are lagging in vaccination rates. I don't know the details of whether this already is in motion - it would be good to understand.
DeleteLove your comment about solidarity. If we can't be in solidarity with one another about this, then I would be ready to despair.
I just ordered some Binax COVID self test kits from Walmart. Around $14 for pack of two (should be repeated three days apart). If positive, there's a 1 in 6 chance it is wrong and one is actually negative. If negative, there's a 1 in 70 chance one is actually positive. I intend to keep a few in my house. If a friend or relative feels sick, I can drop off a kit. Testing of the test is done when people were symptomatic. I don't know how well they work for the asymptomatic but I intend to use it before I go on a trip or go to a family gathering.
ReplyDeleteAffordable test kits are another tool in controlling Covid. I haven't heard if there is any problem with them testing the variants (not that they would tell which variant, but if they would test positive for them).
DeleteHopefully, in a couple weeks there will be answers about the omicron in all aspects. The delta variant remains the largest threat. I get routine endoscopy on the 13th so I have to have a COVID test 5 days prior. Strange days, indeed.
DeleteAn optimistic view of the Omicron variant:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/why-the-omicron-variant-might-change-how-the-pandemic-ends/ar-AARgWuD?ocid=msedgntp
According to The Sydney Morning Herald, experts have been waiting for a coronavirus variant that is more infectious but less virulent, meaning it might spread far and fast, but lead to less severe outcomes.
“The theory is that, if a less virulent strain becomes dominant, more people will become infected but fewer will be critically sick,” per The Sydney Morning Herald. “The virus, while still a problem, also becomes part of the solution; every person who recovers from a mild case is left with greater immunity against future infections than any of the current vaccines provide.”
This would be a sign that future COVID-19 outbreaks could put less pressure on health care and hospital systems, essentially changing the world into one where we have to live with the virus.
New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet said this is why hospitalizations and death are the true measures of omicron’s spread, per The Sydney Morning Herald.
“The measure of success is not case numbers,” Perrottet said. “The measure of success is keeping people out of hospital, keeping people safe and at the same time, opening up the economy to keep people in work and keep businesses open.”
This thinking may merely reflect the hopes of those who like to deny a tradeoff between economic wellbeing and health.
That's an encouraging thought re: the omicron. I hope there is something to it.
DeleteRegarding countries which are not at anything approaching full vaccination yet, it's more complicated than just supply:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/11/29/president-biden-said-south-africa-has-turned-down-vaccine-doses-issue-is-more-complicated-than-that/
South Africa has asked the US to pause sending more vaccine.