While this is a theoretical article, the theory is very plausible. If you have many vaccinated people in an environment in which the virus is circulating strongly because there are also many unvaccinated people, then soon or later the virus will discover how to get through the vaccine barrier among the vaccinated.
UK scientists believe it is 'almost certain' a coronavirus variant will emerge that beats current vaccines
The Delta variant is as contagious as chickenpox,
The delta variant of the coronavirus appears to cause more severe illness than earlier variants and spreads as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal federal health document that argues officials must “acknowledge the war has changed.” The document is an internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention slide presentation, shared within the CDC and obtained by The Washington Post.
it cites a combination of recently obtained, still-unpublished data from outbreak investigations and outside studies showing that vaccinated individuals infected with delta may be able to transmit the virus as easily as those who are unvaccinated. Vaccinated people infected with delta have measurable viral loads similar to those who are unvaccinated and infected with the variant.
One of the slides states that there is a higher risk among older age groups for hospitalization and death relative to younger people, regardless of vaccination status. Another estimates that there are 35,000 symptomatic infections per week among 162 million vaccinated Americans.
Walter A. Orenstein, associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center, said he was struck by data showing that vaccinated people who became infected with delta shed just as much virus as those who were not vaccinated. The slide references an outbreak in Barnstable County, Mass., where vaccinated and unvaccinated people shed nearly identical amounts of virus.
“I think this is very important in changing things,” Orenstein said.
A person working in partnership with the CDC on investigations of the delta variant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak, said the data came from a July 4 outbreak in Provincetown, Mass. Genetic analysis of the outbreak showed that people who were vaccinated were transmitting the virus to other vaccinated people. The person said the data was “deeply disconcerting” and a “canary in the coal mine” for scientists who had seen the data.
My Opinion
People need to understand that the vaccine does not put a shield around people, rather it organizes the bodies response to being infected more quickly than it would naturally.
However the Delta variant itself infects more quickly. One study suggested that on Day 4 it is as infectious as the original variant was on Day 6, moreover it was a thousand time greater in number, and therefore more easily shed.
All of this seems to mean that 'herd immunity" is not possible, i.e. that everyone needs to be vaccinated to stop the virus, and therefore all other measures (masking, social distancing, not being in large groups) need to be put back in place to tamp done the virus and protect vulnerable people. The elderly and those with special vulnerabilities are much better protected against hospitalization and death if they have been vaccinated, but there is still much risk especially since the Delta variant spreads through vaccinated as well as unvaccinated people.
I am back at work at my old job for a while (long story). I noticed that about half the people in the buildings were masked, and half were not. So I asked my supervisor if there was a policy on that. He said that vaccinated people were not required to mask, but unvaccinated were. I would think the inconvenience of masking would drive more people to get vaccinated, but apparently it didn't.
ReplyDeleteI believe that the single factor driving the unvaccinated is fear. They fear the vaccine more than Covid. The fear is of course irrational. One thing I hear from young people is that they fear the vaccine will affect their fertility. Which has been debunked. But they still fear, because they don't trust the government, or the CDC, or scientists. But they do trust their brother in law's cousin who found some panic inducing story on the internet. You can't tell them anything, because they won't listen, so I don't try. I guess I did try today with one person, but didn't get anywhere. He probably felt I was judging him, which wasn't my intent. My dad had a saying that talking to some people was like putting a note down a prairie dog hole.
People say that the CDC don't know what they are doing, because their advice changes. That is because the disease is changing, it is a moving target.
DeleteI would expect that the mRNA vacvines are being tweaked for an anti-variant booster.
Katherine, do these young people have scientific training such as you have? It wouldn't surprise me. I knew guys with physics degrees who didn't accept humans were changing the climate. They, of course, were "conservatives".
DeleteYou and I are among the tens of millions who have given the vaccines the ultimate trial. If there were bad side effects that were significant, we'd know of them by now.
Looks like when common sense fights paranoia, paranoia wins.t
Stanley, the young person I was talking with today has a chemistry degree. You'd think that would make one at least somewhat acquainted with logical thought? But he was going on about fertility issues. I told him I had two nieces (both vaccinated) who had given birth to healthy babies. He told me that two people aren't statistically significant. Which of course I know. They want statistical rigor, but they rely on anecdotal lore without the slightest shred of rigor to make their decisions. People are convinced that the vaccine will change their DNA, put something in their bodies so the government can track them, cause dementia. Not to mention pour sugar in their gas tank and leave dirty socks on the coffee table when company is coming (okay, I'm being facetious there). I blame, in part, people listening to a fire- hose of lies for so long that truth no longer has a meaning. Yet in the industry we work in we are still expected to carry out tests with scientific rigor and sign our name to the results. Which these people do. I guess to a degree we compartmentalize.
DeleteIs this an advice column?
DeleteOur dilemma - similar to Jim's dilemma last winter when he was concerned about visiting his parents.
For 40 years my husband had a very close friendship, that started when the two men worked together. For years our families socialized together a few times a year. They moved to live in Florida when retired, for 7 months/year, and bought a condo in Annapolis near their daughter for 5 months. But they are trumpers, and we have only seen them once during the last 4 years. We stopped our annual winter visits with them in Florida also, even before Covid because of politics. But, I know it would be good for my husband, an extreme introvert, to see them, because he has no friends around here anymore (he used to. We used to).. Most of our lifelong friends here have either moved away or died. Depressing.
They wanted to get together, but then I learned that they aren't vaccinated. They are also evangelical christian and attend church activities several times/week. The evangelicals are the most vaccine resistant group in the US right now, so I believe that their church and social activities could expose them to Covid even though our state is one of the most vaccinated states in the country. They use the ZELENKO protocol as an anti-viral and believe that it protects them as well or better than the vaccine. Zelenko is the doctor who claimed to have cured everybody in an Orthodox Jewish community in NY at the beginning of the pandemic, who was latched onto by Fox, Trump and the entire conservative world - Hydroxychloriquine, zinc and Vit D.
If it weren't for the delta variant news, we probably would have met them for an afternoon and evening together figuring out vaccines would still protect us. But because of the delta variant, we have told them No it won't work this year when we learned that they aren't vaccinated.
My husband is an extremely fit and active 80 year old who has heart failure (you would never know - I can't keep up with him). That makes him extremely vulnerable to a fatal outcome if he were to be infected.
But I feel guilty a bit - have we done the right thing, given the nature of the delta variant? I don't think we have any other choice, although I might propose to them a social distanced get together outside somewhere, but not dinner or hours of conversation on their tiny balcony that overlooks the water.
Ideas and thoughts?
There's nothing more "natural" than vaccines. It's just prepping your immune system, although the immune system itself can cause problems. But the immune system is adaptable. The COVID may evade but the immune system can track. Antivirals, effective or not, can't. Anne, if you put off meeting your friends for a bit, I wouldn't blame you. These latest reports have me thinking that maybe I'll minimize my contact until my Alaska vacation starting next weekend.
DeleteThat's a tough dilemma. Earlier in the spring we were invited to a good friend's 70th birthday party. They were vaccinated, and we went. But we were at a restaurant which was pretty crowded, and later at indoor dinosaur miniature golf ( LOL, not our cup of tea, but when it's your birthday you get to do what you want). Now with the variant going around I'm not sure we'd make the same decision. Like Stanley said, maybe you can put off getting together for a while. It's depressing, I was in hopes we'd be on the other side of it by now.
DeleteThanks. I feel better. That’s more or less what we decided to do - just wait a while. The breakthrough infection rate of vaccinated people is much higher with delta. But most cases are mild at least, I am reading that more than 98% of hospitalizations are unvaccinated patients. They will be here until late October and I suggested that we look at the situation again in a few weeks. The delta variant cases in the UK unexpectedly starting going down about 10 days ago, but nobody knows why. It also did an abrupt about face in India after getting so bad there. Maybe it will peak here in a few weeks and dramatically slow by late September.
DeleteThe 1918 Flu disappeared quickly. They say that it may have burnt through all the susceptible people and ended. Would be great if COVID just stopped.
DeleteBut, I know it would be good for my husband, an extreme introvert, to see them, because he has no friends around here anymore (he used to. We used to).. Most of our lifelong friends here have either moved away or died. Depressing.
DeleteThis is the fundamental problem that we elderly have. As my aunt once told me. All their friends in Florida were happy and well in their seventies, then they all died or moved away when she came into her eighties.
So we elderly have to make friends with those who are younger, say in their sixties or seventies.
Years ago I actually proposed this as a "parish retirement community" model when I was on parish council, i.e. the retired people in their sixties and seventies would accompany those in their eighties so that when they arrived in their eighties younger people who take up the responsibilities of being a retirement community
Stanley, your Alaskan vacation sounds exciting. Is it a cruise?
DeleteNot a cruise, Katherine. Flying into Anchorage, staying mostly in Seward. Going to do things like the helicopter ride to a glacier and that sort of thing. High temps in the upper 50's. Looks like it'll be a bit rainy but one just has to deal with the weather. Looking forward to it. Haven't flown anywhere since 2014.
DeleteStanley, sounds better than a cruise! Have a wonderful trip!
DeleteThanks, Katherine.
DeleteAnne, I also think you're being very sensible in waiting to see these friends. I am sure keeping your husband healthy and with you for years to come is the right priority.
DeleteAll these decisions are based on risk assessment, as I am sure you, as an economist, already know. Part of that assessment is objective (what is the risk? - it can be expressed quantitatively) and part of it is subjective (how risk-averse am I?) We live in a society in which people struggle both with the objective part (many people are functionally innumerate) and with the subjective part (they also utilize poor judgment).
I have heard many anecdotes on news broadcasts in recent weeks from doctors, nurses and patients in COVID wards. As we all know, nearly all the hospitalized COVID patients these days are unvaccinated. What is being reported in these news stories is the bitter regret of patients who could have avoided all this suffering - and expense! - if only they had gotten themselves vaccinated. I mention this as an illustration of people's poor judgment. Many people have been foolish during the pandemic.
Those of us who actually understand numbers and have a store of wisdom are needed more than ever, to lead, guide and set examples for everyone else.
The fact that the virus is transmissible through vaccinated people changes everything since we are not longer safe with vaccinated people.
ReplyDeleteThat means that there are basically two choices if you are vaccinated:
1. Live life normally knowing that as long as the virus is raging out there that you are likely to get a mild case, but possibly could get long term Covid, or be hospitalized (less likely) or die (rather unlikely).
2. Live life in isolation with those who agree also to live in isolation. This is a very effective means of stopping the virus. If everyone isolated totally from everyone else for fourteen days, the virus would end. It cannot exist outside a host.
Our choice is for the second alternative. We simply inform other people that we are waiting for the virus to burn itself out because other people have become vaccinated, or been infected, or like us have chosen to isolate.
Jack, I am 73, my husband is 80 - and very fit and active in spite of heart failure. He just had a test and it is stable - not worsening, but having the condition increases his Covid risks. Because we had our kids in our 30s ( me) and 30s and 40s ( him) we have had friendships with many who are 10-15 years younger than we are through our children’s activities. But we also have had close friendships with people 10-15 years older, mostly neighbors. We moved into our house the day after we got home from our honeymoon. Most of our neighbors moved in with two or three kids after outgrowing previous homes. Most of our friends from when we moved into our neighborhood have died. Our next door neighbor died in December at 90, one of the last left of our neighborhood friends. Many of our younger friends have moved away to live near grown children or to Florida or some other place without snow. Our closest friends here now are actually a younger couple - he is 60 and she is 48. They are still working and very busy, but we see them more than others. They have no kids. He is German and she is French and they plan to move back to Europe when he retires in a few years ( he works for an international organization and she works for international NGOs).
ReplyDeleteI think your idea is good because so many people are in a similar situation as they get older. I suspect this challenge of old age underlies the popularity of the over-55 planned golf course/ country club communities that litter the East coast from North Carolina to Florida. Lots of age peers to hang out with. But those communities don’t really appeal to us. Besides, we don’t even play golf. :)
I like people in my age group and out. One of the perks of consulting after retirement was getting to know the next generation, their pluses and minuses, their problems in living in this era. I would be afraid that retirement communities could breed age parochialism and reinforce Trump-think. You'll never find me in one, either.
Delete