A wake up call this morning!
My comments:
1. This is a global problem. As long as there are places in the world in which the Virus is raging, it will mutate. Those mutations often will favor ease of transmission as in the B.1.1.7 virus. They may cause worst cases as in the B.1.1.7 virus. They may be more vaccine resistant which does not seem to be the case in terms of the B.1.1.7 virus. Our only options are to vaccinate everyone every where, or to drastically curtail travel to and from the USA. Since neither of these options are likely, a virus that is both more resistant to the vaccine and easily transmissible will likely reach the US very quickly before we are on the alert.
2. This is a US problem. We have been unwilling to engage in the severe lockdowns, intrusive tracking of cases, and quarantining of people that have enabled other countries such as China and New Zealand to contain the virus without vaccines. We have done a very poor job of doing all the testing, and analysis of test swabs that could enable us to detect new dangerous forms of mutations, some of which could originate here as well as being quickly imported from other countries.
3. We have been unwilling to mandate vaccinations, or require people to show proof of vaccination in to order to enter into buildings, or to engage in outdoor activities without social distancing. We have a libertarian problem in that many people are unwilling to alter their behavior for the benefit of others.
4. With the present variants of the virus, children to not seem to be primary sources of transmission of the virus, nor in most cases do they get severe cases. That could all change if the virus becomes more like the seasonal flue. With the new variants of the virus severe cases have migrated to younger and younger people, they may eventually cause severe cases in children. So ultimately we will not be safe until we have vaccinated children.
5. For the foreseeable future each of us personally will be safe only in bubbles of people whom we know have been vaccinated. We will not be safe in large meetings nor in places where masks and social distancing are not practiced. These will all be areas of virus transmission.
Are we going to continue Mass with masks and social distancing without congregational singing for the foreseeable future since we are likely to have some unvaccinated persons in the congregation? Or are we willing to institute Masses with singing reserved for the vaccinated?
6. If at any time in the future any where in the world the virus mutates in to a form that is highly resistant to present vaccines, we will have to go back into social isolation until new vaccines are developed, that would take another year, and then another six months to be administered.
Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.
Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.
It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon.
Early on, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated to be about 60 to 70 percent of the population. Most experts, including Dr. Fauci, expected that the United States would be able to reach it once vaccines were available.
But as vaccines were developed and distribution ramped up through the winter and into the spring, estimates of the threshold began to rise. That is because the initial calculations were based on the contagiousness of the original version of the virus. The predominant variant now circulating in the United States, called B.1.1.7 and first identified in Britain, is about 60 percent more transmissible.
As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If even more contagious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the calculation will have to be revised upward again.
Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Over the long term — a generation or two — the goal is to transition the new coronavirus to become more like its cousins that cause common colds. That would mean the first infection is early in childhood, and subsequent infections are mild because of partial protection, even if immunity wanes.
Some unknown proportion of people with mild cases may go on to experience debilitating symptoms for weeks or months — a syndrome called “long Covid” — but they are unlikely to overwhelm the health care system.
The ship has pretty much sailed. We'll just have to do the best we can. We need to encourage as many people as we can to get vaccinated. They are gradually lowering the age of children who can be safely vaccinated. It's down to 16 yrs old for the Pfizer, and is expected to go lower to kids entering high school by the end of summer.
ReplyDeleteThe pressure is on for the vaccine manufacturers to relax patent restrictions to make more vaccine available globally. The Biden administration is set to release the AstraZeneca doses which we have stockpiled to places such as India which need them. Of course a few million doses are a drop in the bucket.
As far as restrictions in church, our parish has always had a "quiet" 7:00 am Mass on Sunday morning. You'd be surprised how well attended that one is. We still have a mask mandate in church, and a "no contact" sign of peace, though we have returned to having music at the non-quiet Masses, and the attendance limit has been lifted. I expect those conditions to continue for quite some time.
I heard that my previous employer is now offering the Moderna vaccine on site. I know at least one person who was previously vaccine hesitant who has decided to take advantage of the opportunity. I think we will see more employers doing that, especially the larger ones.
DeleteI was reading this morning that a polyclonal antibodies treatment for Covid is being developed using genetically modified cows as a source.
Immunology has made remarkable advances. People are just the same. There have been large vaccine catastrophes in the past. Hundreds of thousands of Midwestern children contracted polio from a batch of insufficiently weakened vaccine. But the science has advanced to an amazing degree. I remember when people didn't want AIDS to be addressed with research. I said that regardless how one felt about gays, that this research would yield a harvest of knowledge about the human immune system. And it did. We're all in this together.
ReplyDeleteAn issue that I think will become more exigent as time goes on and we don't achieve herd immunity: how deferential must we, the vaccinated majority, be toward those who refuse the vaccine?
ReplyDeleteThis is not simply a question of social courtesy. As businesses, churches et al relax restrictions to accommodate the vaccinated majority, the risk to the unvaccinated presumably will increase. Should an unvaccinated person who contracts COVID be able to sue a tavern or a church which has started tailoring its procedures with the expectation that most people are vaccinated? Or do the rest of us need to continue wearing masks, distancing ourselves, accepting capacity limits, etc. because a relatively few others insist on making themselves vulnerable to a deadly disease?
Then, too, not all of it is perverse choice on the part of the vaccinated: there are some (a few, as I understand it) who, for medical reasons, are not able to be vaccinated. What is the legal liability for businesses et al toward these individuals?
Jim, I suspect the legal liability issue has already been settled. I know Republicans were talking about it, and I suspect that Democrats have a lot of business donors and would not want to be recorded as opposed. It is probably buried in the stimulus bill.
DeleteMost people who get vaccinated are going to want to discontinue wearing masks, keeping social distance, and avoiding large events. They are likely to be willing to get a mild case of the virus or long term Covid because they know they are unlikely to die or even be hospitalized. I plan to avoid even a mild case, and certainly don't want a long term case.
Those who choose not to be vaccinated by needle will likely end up being vaccinated by the virus itself. Hopefully they will decide the risk of several days of sickness with the shot is far better than going to the hospital with the virus.
I don't intend to return to Mass until the incidence of the virus is very low in my area, just as I would not eat in a restaurant or go to a movie theatre or concert. I also plan to continue to shop online with home or curbside delivery for most things unless virus rates get very low.
But I will be resuming limited shopping for a few items that require personal inspection, choosing low traffic times, wearing a mask and keeping my social distance.
If the virus incidence is low enough, I am likely to reconvene the Cleveland Commonweal Local Community letting people know they are expected to have been vaccinated but will not need to wear masks or observe social distance. We usually get 5 to 10 people for those meetings.
When I got my vaccine, they gave us a decal saying that we have been vaccinated. I put it on one of my old meeting badges that I can hang around my neck. It hangs in my car, and I take with me when I get our of the car any place.
I think of it as like one of those I Voted decals. I plan to say to people that I hope they have been vaccinated, and ought really to get vaccinated. As mask requirements lessen, I will keep a mask in my pocket and plan to put it on if anyone says they are not vaccinated.
"...do the rest of us need to continue wearing masks, distancing ourselves, accepting capacity limits, etc. because a relatively few others insist on making themselves vulnerable to a deadly disease?"
DeleteMost of the people in this unvaccinated category think the rest of us are a bunch of wusses for worrying about a little illness that's no worse than a cold. So our concern should be with protecting ourselves from them, rather than the other way around.
The wuss attitude has always amused me. Working for the military as an engineer sometimes at state-of-the-art levels, I know how easy it is to disable or kill a fit soldier in their prime and it keeps getting easier with new technologies. One person sees a fit, invulnerable Navy Seal. I see all the ways that soldier can be damaged and I'm not just talking about bullets and bombs. I'm talking about the future which is by all accounts, already here. So tough guy talk about viruses or otherwise doesn't impress me. Tough is obsolete. Tough is a delusion.
DeleteYes, we're fragile. That has become clearer to me in recent years.
DeleteI am not sure if the pandemic has helped us to process our fragility. The narrative which seems to have taken hold is that the people who have been killed by COVID are the elderly and already-health-vulnerable. I am sure there is a lot of truth that such folks are the most likely to be killed, but there also are younger and healthier people who have been disabled and killed.
It's time to demand proof of vaccination in order to allow people into indoor activities of ALL kinds ... including places of worship. Libertarianism can be a killer when it comes to allowing stupidity to run amok to the detriment of the unstupid.
ReplyDeleteIsn't it strange that the people who were saying that herd immunity "would take care of the virus" are the ones who are now preventing us from getting to herd immunity?
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