This morning I looked in vain for someone at the NYT or elsewhere to bring everything together. So this is my attempt to put things together to begin a discussion.
The Transition of Institutional Power
1. The real transition of institutional power occurred yesterday morning when it became clear the
Democrats will have control of the House, Senate, and Presidency.
a. That control is fragile and could easily be undone in
both the House and Senate in 2022. On the other hand, if the Democrats are
successful in exercising power, they could gain substantial control by solid wins in 2022.
b. In both houses of congress power could gravitate to the
moderates in both parties, and if they are successful, being a moderate in
either party could be the place to be in the 2022 elections. Wouldn't it be great if primaries where about electing the most likely to succeed moderate!
c. The presidency of Joe Biden the moderate finally makes
sense. He could be the catalyst to a return to moderation and bi-partisanship
in both parties. As long as the Republicans held the Senate, a Biden presidency meant no progress was likely and no vision of progress would be formed for 2022.
The Attempted Coup
2. The attempted coup by Trump failed for many reasons.
a) Most importantly, there were not enough Trump supporters on the Mall. This
was not a million man (or woman) march as have taken place in the past. Seems
to me they numbered in the low thousands, not tens of thousands or even
hundreds of thousands.
b) Despite all the social media organization, the coup
failed because the Virus made it impossible to gather tens, and hundreds of
thousands let alone a million in D.C. or anywhere around the country. As I have maintained for quite awhile, the
Virus defeated Trump. Without it, I doubt the Democrats would have won the
presidency. Without the Virus, Trump
could have spent the time since November going around the country rallying his supporters to come to the Mall in hundreds of thousands if not millions to overturn the
election. He might have succeeded. Last night might have turned out very different if the Capital had been surrounded by hundreds of thousands of Trump's fans.
c) The symbolic trashing of the Capital will forever tarnish
the Trump movement. I watched the Senate proceedings last night, and it was
very clear that this was not only the institutional Waterloo of the Trump
movement , it was also the symbolic Waterloo of the Trump movement. Yes, for many Trump supporters Washington is the symbol of all that is
wrong with America, but there is still strong support across America for all
the symbols of America, the Capital building, the Mall, etc. When you trash
these, there isn’t anything to appeal to except either the Trump flag, or the
Confederate flag.
The Future
3. The Biden vision of progress through moderation has about six to twelve months to achieve ascendency. As the virus recedes progress forward must become clear before Trump and/or the Republican Right can regroup to stage rallies across the nation. The clock is ticking, we are not home free yet. Progress mush be made by 2022.
Update
Republicans Meet Their Monster
The politicians who have enabled Trump did not expect the president’s followers to ever break through the glass windows of the Capitol and ascend the Senate dais.
The above brief article in the Atlantic provides a fine interpretation along with on site reporting and interviews with the people at the rally and subsequent riot.
Message from the Dean - Wednesday, 6th January 2021 | Canterbury Cathedral
The above is a fine message of support for Americans. It was amplified at the beginning of Morning Prayer today.
Morning Prayer – Thursday, 7th January 2021 | Canterbury Cathedral
I think the virus was both a mitigating factor and an aggravating factor, if that makes any sense. Mitigating, in the sense that you are right that more people may have showed up in DC if they hadn't been scared of catching Covid. Also that the virus may have helped Biden win because a lot of people were disgusted by Trump's non-handling of the public health crisis.
ReplyDeleteBut it was an aggravating factor in that people s mental health has been adversely affected. I think isolation and stress has contributed to people believing lies and conspiracy theories. And being willing to consider violence and confrontation as a remedy for what they see as wrongs, i.e. having the election "stolen".
And some people have simply checked out from the news cycle. A couple of family members are like that, saying that it's all they can do to keep their own boat afloat right now, without worrying about what is going on in the national scene. And I understand that. But I also think it's important to know what's going on as a step towards preventing it from happening again.
About lies, of course Trump is the Lyin' King. I have read that hearing a lie repeated three times is all it takes for susceptible people to start believing it. Apparently there are lotsvof susceptible people.
I think the effectiveness of the Big Lie tactic can't be underestimated. I usually stay as far away from Fox News, Hannity, Limbaugh et al as I can. I caught a little of it this week, and it really hit home to me how much the right wing populist media complex both influences Trump and amplifies untruths on his behalf.
ReplyDeleteThat media complex gives the Trump movement resiliency. It will still be there, propagandizing and lying away, after Trump exits (which he apparently has now said he will do in an orderly fashion - let us all offer sacrifices of thanks to the beneficent Great Man).
If the movement to impeach him gains any traction over the next 24 hours, I'll support it wholeheartedly. If we can confirm Amy Coney Barrett as quickly as we did, we can impeach and convict Trump in the next 12 days.
"In both houses of congress power could gravitate to the moderates in both parties, and if they are successful, being a moderate in either party could be the place to be in the 2022 elections."
ReplyDeleteIt's a happy thought, but I fear the rage-mongers continue to be ascendant.
Kudos to you, Jack, for trying to think rationally about this. It's going to take me a long while. My takeaways:
ReplyDelete1. It takes several hours cowering in a bunker together under armed guard for Congress to restore the fiction that they are rational and disinterested enough to run the country.
2. Trump has excellent skills in rallying and inciting the 30 percent of Americans who want to live in his ego-driven power dream. Apparently only the social media overlords at Twitter have the balls to remove him from the public sphere. For 12 hours. Let's enjoy them.
3. The Republican Party has six senators colluding with insurrection: Ted Cruz (Texas), Josh Hawley (Missouri), Cindy Hyde-Smith (Mississippi), Roger Marshall (Kansas), John Kennedy (Louisiana), Tommy Tuberville (Texas). These states form a more or less contiguous territory of a New Confederacy that will continue to be a haven for Trumpism. They should be cordially invited to leave the Union. Our mistake in 1865 was taking these people back.
4. Given the number of people in the mob carrying crosses and Jesus banners and quoting Scripture, I henceforth object to being called a "Christian" any longer. I am sick of trying to demonstrate to non-Christians and unbelievers that "we're not all like that."
5. Protestations that "this is not America" are laughable and pearl-clutching commentators should be issued citations for saying it. This is EXACTLY who white Americans are and have always been--overfed and self-entitled ignoramuses who have made life miserable for native people, African slaves, and anybody who showed up poor and foreign since 1776.
6. If African-Americans had raged about disenfranchisement in the 1960s--disenfranchisement that was provable and not in the head of a deranged president--they would have been clubbed to death or mowed down by snipers.