Biden Is Not Out of the Woods
Four of the six states Trump won by fewer than five points in 2016 allow voters to register by party: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In recent months, there have been substantially more Republicans added to the rolls than Democrats in each of them except for Arizona.
Wasserman’s data:
Florida, since the state’s March primary, added 195,652 Republicans and 98,362 Democrats.
Pennsylvania, since June, Republicans plus 135,619, Democrats up 57,985.
North Carolina, since March, Republicans up 83,785 to Democrats 38,137.
In Arizona, the exception, “Democrats out-registered Republicans 31,139 to 29,667” in recent months.
Even though Biden is raising large amounts of money, Trump still has the loyalists. Looks like they have been very busy recruiting new voters to the Republican party.
After following 538 in 2016, I have not been following it this year, because I don't think that Trump was just a statistical fluke. If you look at their
especially the "snake" these are precisely the states that will put Trump over 270 electoral votes.
I've looked in on 538 occasionally, but I don't know that numbers can predict the election outcome.
ReplyDeletePoll numbers really don't gauge the slavish adoration Trumpers feel for their candidate. And I suspect that many of them don't participate in opinion polls.
Trump's followers in Michigan are pushing their candidate at the grass roots, at tables in strip mall parking lots, at Trump stores, by holding impromptu rallies on their own at Michigan rest stops. They are aggrieved and motivated. They are driven by apocalyptic world views. They are networking like crazy and motivating each other.
Biden's team has made stops here, but they get very little coverage. Trump supporter activities make better TV. Even the nimrods who plotted to kidnap the governor worked in Trump's favor. Lots of folks say the men were "misguided," but that's what that "bitch" drives people to do.
There is no Biden presence here, in part because Biden supporters are afraid of Trumpers. We have a cadre of them out here in the cornfield who drive around in black golf carts wearing camo carrying rifles and Trump flags.
I hope I'm wrong, but this election is going to be nasty, brutish, and close. And a Trump re-election will unleash the destruction of the peaceful democratic order we give lip service to.
It'll be a great time to be Jim Bakker, Alex Jones, and FOX news.
Just noooo!
ReplyDeleteThough I have seen a lot on social media that "You're not actually voting for Trump, you're voting for the Republican Way!"
Or this one, which doesn't even make sense: " A vote is not a Valentine. It's a move in a chess game. You're voting for the version of America that you would like to have."
My take away from this is that a bunch of people don't even like Trump. But they like deregulation, gutting environmental laws, favoring business (BIG business, that is), Law 'n Order, getting rid of anything (such as the ACA) with Obama's fingerprints on it.
But if anything should be plain from the last 4 years, it is that they can't control Trump.
My gut tells me Florida, the pivot of American democracy, is going to go for Trump again. I don't have the advantage of having driven the key I-4 corridor this time, as I did in 2016. But I am not feeling the burn for Biden here in the last bastions of Democracy in Florida just as I didn't feel a burn for Clnton four years ago.
ReplyDeleteAt least this time the Trumpfeasors are not lying when the poll takers ask. It's hard to pretend you are "undecided" when your guy's name is tattooed on your forehead and you automatically respond "Heil!" when you hear it.
This morning, Trumpfeasor told he he has to vote for the president because (I kid you not) "Biden lies."
If Trump loses by narrow margins in these states, these new Republican registrations could be used to argue that there must have been voter fraud.
ReplyDeleteI'm the party of science :-). I believe the polls. I think Biden will win and it will be a shellacking of near-historic proportions. Also that the gravity of Trump's plummet will pull down the Republican majority in the Senate with it. By the last week in January, a Democrat will be in the White House, and Democrats will have, oh, let's say, a 53-47 majority in the Senate.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to invite my conservative friends to a virtual champagne toast on Halloween (by which time, barring new developments, ACB will be confirmed), because after that there will be nothing to celebrate for 2 years at least.
"nothing to celebrate for 2 years at least."
DeleteIf your prediction is correct--and I'm far less sanguine about a Biden victory--I hope you and your GOP friends will do some soul-searching after your celebration on how to reconstruct the party in the wake of Trump.
Certainly there are problems with the Democratic Party (and I am voting Green Party down ballot). But in recent living memory, no one has divided Americans more than your party's president.
Hope you're right, Jim! And it would be best if the victory looked decisive by at least Nov. 5.
DeleteI think ACB getting confirmed is pretty much a done deal.
Trump being the candidate in 2016 was a hostile takeover. He was like the "activist investors" that take over a publicly held corporation by holding 12% of the shares. There ought to be some way that a party could prevent that.
DeleteWell, there are several ways a party could prevent that. But where there is a way, there also has to be a will. The Rs paid for a study of what they did wrong in 2012, and one big bullet point was YOU GOTTA RESPECT BROWN PEOPLE. So the Don opens by attacking brown people, and the will followed their backbones into the area where the sun does not shine.
DeleteJean - I don't know if the GOP is salvageable. For one thing, as I mentioned somewhere recently, if Trump loses in November, he could easily decide to run again in 2024, and it's entirely possible that the same dynamics that led to his 2016 nomination would play out again.
DeleteI've been reading a lengthy Lincoln biography in fits and starts. He spent the great majority of political career as a Whig. As a viable national party, the Whig Party was dead by the early 1850s, but it took party stalwarts (including Lincoln) a number of years to recognize it. Unless a Reagan-like prophetic voice arises to take the party in a different direction, it could be going the way of the Whigs. And Reagan wasn't an instant phenomenon; it took him years to gather the threads of the party to get to a majority. By contrast, Trump was a whirlwind. It takes years to build something, but it can be killed in an instant.
"I believe the polls."
DeleteSo do I, except when I know NOT to believe the polls. Polls are all about likely voters, and all the new Republicans in these swing states are probably NOT factored into the "likely." And they are in sufficient numbers to make a difference. Maybe Trump's virus will cause them to get cold feet and not come out but I am not sure any more that he will lose.
On the other hand maybe the Democrats might win across the board. Maybe people are so fed up with the virus that voters will decide to give power to the Democrats to see if they can get anything done about the virus.
Last week when Gov. DeWine was asked about his obvious disagreements with Trump on the virus, he replied that he never agree with anyone 100% and that he was voting for Trump because of his Supreme Court appointments and toughness on trade.
On Tuesday he gave a "half time" report on the virus that was some what upbeat. The decision to call it a half time report was very optimistic. We are likely only a third of the way through this. Week by week nationally and world wide things are getting worse. When do Trump supporters get to the place when they have to admit that he is simply not the guy to manage the virus. Maybe that will be when ACB is confirmed.
It ain't over until the fat blob is thoroughly trounced.
ReplyDelete