As I write this, the RealClearPolitics polling average for Pennsylvania has Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 3.8% in that state. That number is accompanied by a downward-pointing arrow, indicating that Biden's lead is narrowing as we approach the election.
The New York Times has a reporter on the ground in Pennsylvania, Shawn McCreesh. McCreesh is a native of the Philadelphia suburbs that could determine which way Pennsylvania goes - and Pennsylvania could, in turn, determine who wins the election. McCreesh quotes both candidates telling their supporters at rallies that Pennsylvania is the key to victory. Perhaps that is boilerplate for any campaign stop anywhere, but McCreesh notes that, in Trump's case, it's probably true.
McCreesh's report consists of a series of anecdotes and observations, grounded in part on his personal connections and history in that locale. Although he never quite says so, the picture he paints is that Trump supporters in that area are considerably more passionate for their candidate than Biden's supporters are for theirs. As one illustration, he points to a bakery's sugar cookie sales:
Lochel’s bakery in Hatboro has become an overnight Oracle of (Phila) Delphi, selling red “Trump 2020” and blue “Biden 2020” sugar cookies. Whichever cookie sells the most will predict how this area, and thus the state, and therefore the election, will turn. Supposedly.
The shop’s owner, Kathleen Lochel, says enthusiasm for the president has drawn people from as far as West Virginia. Eric Trump stopped by last week.
Ms. Lochel said Pennsylvania is unknowable. “If I was a gambling woman,” she said, “I wouldn’t gamble on this.” She doesn’t disclose her political views and said, with utmost seriousness, that “the bakery does not make an endorsement.”
So far, the count stands at 3,367 blue cookies, 18,241 red.
McCreesh also notes that the number of Trump yard signs dwarfs those for Biden. His entire report is worth reading.
I noted here a few days ago that I trust the polls. But polls don't always measure the level of passion. Jean earned oracle status in these parts in 2016 by correctly predicting, despite the polls, that Trump was going to win that election. She based that opinion on the sort of observing which McCreesh is doing in Pennsylvania: watching, listening and drawing conclusions.
It's entirely possible that Biden will win despite the evident passion gap. If that is the case, then the snapshot of our country will be that of a large and passionate minority which supports Trump, and an even larger conglomeration of people which doesn't share that passion (and included in that conglomeration surely would be a large set which is passionately opposed to Trump).
Regardless of which grouping generates more votes, the country seems more than ever like two nations which happen to share the same geography.
FAU -- Florida Atlantic University -- poll has Biden 50%, Trump 48%, margin of error 3. Which makes it a tie. I still think Florida will be in Trump's column, and yes, the enthusiasm, the boat races, the car parades, the golf cart parades, the tattoos and baseball caps and swooning over Don Jr and his current squeeze are all in The Don's favor.
ReplyDeleteMy morning paper, a shadow of its former self, reports the Rs are closing a "gap" in voting. This is based on utterly nonsensical assumptions. First, the Ds voted by mail and the Rs were constrained by their fat god. Now that the polls are open for early voting, the Rs are coming out. So the first assumption -- that there ever was a gap -- was a figment of an editor's fevered imagination. (Remember when they covered news?)
The second problem is, the votes they are counting as D are people who are registered D, many of whom voted for Trump in 2016. And the people registered R includes all the never Trumpers who think their party will come back after its long, dark night of the soulless. So we don't know what the ballots mean anyway.
And third, NPA --no party affiliation -- registrations are the fastest-growing category in Florida and nobody is paying much attention to them because you can't make fatuous projections from them.
Sadly, the dreaded paywall stands between me and McCreesh.
ReplyDeleteHowever my oracular observations, such as they are, favor a Trump win in the popular and electoral college votes. But, just to make sure, Trump has made sure he has friendlies on the Supreme Court in case the outcome has to be adjudicated.
Biden's comments about fracking, true as they are, just do not play in the Michigan-Ohio-Pennsylvania axis of minining and industry. Add industrial working class votes to those in the ever-conservative cornfield, and you've got a Trump victory in all three of those states.
(Side note: I spotted some Amish people rubbernecking in the audience at a Pennsylvania rally. Are they going to join the English in voting this year? Nothing in their theology says they can't, and there are tons of them in Pennsylvania and Ohio who aren't reflected in opinion polls because they don't have phones. They usually don't bother to vote. But Trump is attractive because Betsy De Vos wants them to be able to run their schools the way they want, Trump makes the right noises about religious freedom, and they by-God want the gummint off their necks about their godawful puppy mills. The Amish are also not great embracers of other ethnic groups. They have a jokey little poem about how God made a mistake with black people. I'll spare you.)
Wisconsin seems to be in the Biden corner, but he could still lose it.
Trump is criss-crossing these states at breakneck pace, and the meaner and more outrageous he gets, the bigger his crowds. Biden just isn't making any effort in Michigan outside of TV ads.
As in 2016, a lot will depend on turnout, and the pandemic is working for Trump in Great Lakes swing states where the number of infections doubles every week.
Republicans will vote in person because they ain't afraid of the sniffles. You can bet that at the polls they will not be distancing or wearing masks in order to discourage the socialists from breathing their germs. They are also planning to exercise Second Amendment rights by bringing their guns to the polls. So my guess is that election day will be a circus in rural Michigan, where brain and sanity drain has reached Level Crazy.
Democrats will have had to make an extra effort to avoid all that. Raber and I broke down and voted early by going to the clerk's office last week, getting ballots and completing them right there, and delivering them back to her. No muss, no fuss, but many (i.e., ignorant young) people inclined to vote against Trump don't realize they can do this. We had to walk The Boy through the process.
The one thing I can't gauge is the anti-Trump feeling in the South among African-American voters--notably in big states like Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina. If Biden carries those states that might upset my prediction.
I have a hard time believing that there are any significant number of people who haven't made up their minds by now, who could be swayed by a visit from a candidate. I think Trump's appearances are all about keeping his base pumped. Plus he LOVES the adulation, feeds on it. Biden's supporters are unlikely to turn Trumpy because they didn't get to see their man in person.
DeleteOh, I agree that everyone made up their minds long ago. The closeness of the factions and the motivation to actually vote that puts these states in play.
DeleteWhat is happening in swing states is increased "polarization" between the factions. Speaking only for myself, I'm about as radicalized as a retiree with cancer and a bad ticker can be. I am no longer interested in reasoning or trying to find "common ground" with yahoos. They are incapable of empathy, kindness, or basic reasoning.
Democrats are stupid, but Republicans are aligned with the forces of evil, excusing all kinds of travesties because Trump says he loves religion and the unborn babies. M'okay. But I won't be going back to church when the pandemic is over to sit in pews with all those Catholic right-wingers who helped foist this jack-ass over the top but tell me I am not good enough to receive the Lord.
Ouch! "Foist this jack-ass over the top." There's classic bad writing.
DeleteMy husband had to get some stuff done at the GM dealership garage this morning. He was visiting with a guy he knows from church who works there. He was saying two of his kids (college age) aren't speaking to each other right now because of their different political beliefs. This country is going to need a whole lot of healing when this is all over. I've got to believe it will be over.
DeleteI am encouraged by the number of bishops who are saying it's not a sin to vote for either party.
I'm hoping it will be over, but my "oracular" abilities are telling me not to count on it in my lifetime. We're in a cold civil war that could heat up.
DeleteIf the Democrats would STFU about wing-nuts and their guns it would help. The Republican Gun Nuts are only planning to bring their weaponry to the polls because they know it scares the left. Hell, I've been thinking about putting a Biden sticker on the stock of my Winchester and marching around town next Tuesday.
It would also help if the Democrats had made a deal for some kind of pandemic relief with Republicans in August. If Biden wins by some miracle, they can negotiate something additional after Trump goes back to the Sulphuric Realms. If Trump wins, there's not going to be anything.
But holding out is a win-win for the Limo Liberals. If they get something big over Republican objections, they can brag. If not, they can shrug say how stingy and cruel the Repubs, we are your only hope, Poor People, and go back to sorting their shrimp forks and writing up instructions for the maid.
Ugh. I need to find something else to do with the remains of today.
Apologies for being so worked up.
As to the pandemic relief The Don's eighth or ninth acting something or another said to Judy Woodruff last night that the Ds hadn't moved "an inch" in their negotiations with good cop Munchkin and bad cop Mark Aftermick. Actually, they came down almost $1 trillion, which is considerably thicker than an inch. Judy, of course, failed to correct, but when you have to correct three or four things per sentence, you tend to let things slip by.
DeleteAnyhow, everyone but the Foxwatchers knows Sen. Addison M. doesn't want any more help for the incoming administration. He is only hoping he has enough followers left to block any and all Biden appointments, including Cabinet and courts.
I don't suppose Mitch has a chance in Hades of losing his own seat. But one can always wish. I actually think he's worse than Trump.
DeleteJean: see also:
Deletehttps://international.la-croix.com/news/religion/will-i-go-back-to-mass/13239?utm_source=NewsLetter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=1029mailjet
Will I go back to Mass?
Jimmy, thanks, but this is behind a paywall, so I could only read the first few paragraphs.
DeleteI am not somebody who is tuned into the whole SBNR scene. Without the community of God somewhere, I tend to fall into sadness, despair, and my sense of connectedness with others shrinks up. And I think God *does* care if I show up on Sunday somewhere to acknowledge I am part of God's family in Christ.
But the thought of going back to any of the local parishes depresses me even more than being away from a community of believers.
President Trump paid a visit to our state last night, at a rally held at Eppley Airfield. There is only one reason he was appearing in Nebraska at this late date, our measley little 1st district electoral vote. Which just might turn blue this time. Speaking of things (and people) turning blue; it was below freezing last night, and a lot of the crowd weren't able to leave until 1:00 am, since they had to be shuttled by bus to the parking lots, and there weren't enough buses. I am sorry for some people who actually were hypothermic and had to get medical attention. But sorry-not-sorry for the people who were just inconvenienced and freezing their a$$es off in our late fall cold spell.
ReplyDeleteOur governor, one senator and three representatives, as well as some luminaries from Iowa, were on hand. Sasse wasn't there. Gee, I wonder why.
Unrelated, some people say we should start calling it "Eppley International Airport", since that's what it is. Eppley Airfield sounds like it's a small town landing strip for puddle jumpers.
DeleteWe are an international airport. But Miami and Fort Lauderdale are both within 60 miles of it, so international, in our case, means about six flights a year from and to Finland; the Finns love to vacation in Palm Beach County. They all seem to be able to sing well. Don't know if there is a connection there.
DeleteJean, I also don't trust the polls. Intelligent people who care about the survival of our country and our freedoms should be worked up.
ReplyDeleteBut even if the polls are right and Biden wins, with his SC justices in place, trump will fight tooth and nail to stay in office even if he does lose the electoral vote. He faces criminal charges once he leaves office. Amy is his ace to play for the win- and she's been confirmed. I don't trust her or Kavanaugh to be impartial at all. Gorsuch sometimes surprises.
I live in a deep blue county in a deep blue state. Few trump signs. A neighbor put one up yesterday, the only one I've seen in our own neighborhood or in the others that I drive through. But, they are Israeli, so I am assuming they like trump because he's pushing the govt of Israel's agenda. Most of our Jewish neighbors are for Biden. But they aren't Israelis.
My son went to the local shopping center to get groceries and was shocked by a parade around the center (strip mall not big mall) of pickup trucks etc with trump signs, trump flags etc, He took a video on his phone to show me. They were also trying to handing literature. Apparently they were headed downtown to a protest led by a christian singer who has been traveling around the country complaining about churches being closed..
Ahead of time they said thousands would descend on DC for this. The news story says hundreds.
https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/protests/worship-protest-national-mall-large-gathering-social-distancing-pandemic/65-d856974a-b81a-4b40-84f2-bf508f86d92b
The county just north of us has grown suburbanized to a degree, but still is mostly rural, farms and small towns. I'm guessing the caravan that drove through the shopping center came from there. Some new trump signs appeared the same day, nailed onto telephone poles on the main road - this is against the law in our county.
Our priest doesn't preach political homilies. For which I am grateful. But he and other clergy here do seem awfully worried about religious freedom, that there are forces trying to stifle our voices in the public square. And which are trying to obstruct us in carrying out our Christian mission by hamstringing our charities. Which all seems rather paranoid to me, especially the part about stifling our voices in the public square. Actually our voices never shut up (in this country). And about the charities, they can do whatever they want if they don't accept public funds. If they do, then they need to practice what the church preaches and refrain from discrimination. Since there are many places in the world where Christians do face persecution and even death, our whining from a place of privilege seema out of place.
ReplyDeleteMy brother got a hold of a rag called The Epoch Times. Fine, it doesn't surprise me, except he gave it to Dad and got him spun up.
ReplyDeleteNew York Times had a story about the Epoch Times the other day. I know it because YouTube's algorithms show I am interested in things like that. (Probably because one of my ongoing arguments requires watching the Praeger "university" (sic) podcasts he thinks are the cat's pajamas.) It started out as the Falun Gong's finger in the eye of Chinese government but since has gone all in for Trump. On YouTube it is huckstered by one of those smartass know-it-alls who drives me up a wall. Certainly no to be taken seriously.
DeleteOh, God, Praeger U.
DeleteI saw on television News Hour that there are online courses helping people do their own fact-checking and learn to gauge political bias of various news outlets.
Tom, you should teach one! People are hungry for this.
I don’t think trump people are at all hungry for learning about how their favorite media fall on the bias charts, nor about fact-checking. I have sent the information to my trump relatives more than once. One told me that fact-checking sites can’t be trusted - they are just part of the tear-down trump conspiracy. And the media bias charts are all wrong. Fox is unbiased and can be trusted. It shouldn’t be classified as very far right - it should be shown in the unbiased center of the charts.
DeleteMaybe not, but learning to think critically !ight save a few souls from buying into some of the wilder crap that the Trumpists spew.
DeleteI can imagine that some of the pro-Führer people who were forced to march through the death camps and bury bodies thought that the entire thing was a manufactured propaganda stunt by the Allies. Certainly preferable to realizing you're a monster-supporting monster.
DeleteThere have been several stories about the "Amish vote." Here's one: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/going-home-i-wish-they-d-vote-they-love-trump-a-day-with-the-amish-in-southeast-ohio/ar-BB1auC41?ocid=uxbndlbing
ReplyDeleteAs I understand it, each community's bishops make rulings about these types of things, so would be interesting to know what the Pennsylvania enclaves are doing. It would also be interesting to know what kind of political coverage is offered in The Budget.
Here's a more comprehensive story about the Amish in PA: https://www.ydr.com/story/news/2020/10/26/trump-faces-uphill-effort-courting-amish-vote-pennsylvania-lancaster/6044235002/
DeleteJean, interesting article about the Amish. This part really struck me: "Voting among the Amish, one said, “is very much a personal choice. Our leaders discourage it, though.”
DeleteOne of the reasons for discouraging voting has to do with the Amish’s belief in pacifism and non-violence. Voting for a president who, through military power, may get people killed would make them complicit in that violence if they voted."
They really are serious about pacifism and non violence. I see a lot to admire them for. But I don't get the part about them running puppy-mills. Doesn't kindness carry over to animals?
I know they want to run their own schools without the government telling them what to do. But now that everybody's home-schooling, is that even a controversy?
The Amish don't like paying taxes for things they don't use (public schools) or any interference or regulation on their businesses. One of the businesses they've gotten into is puppy mills because it's quick money. They can install a wall of cages in a barn, cram it full of dogs, and keep the female dogs pregnant. They drown or shoot what they can't sell. It's like any other intensive livestock operation as far as they're concerned. Google it if you can stomach the photos.
DeleteThe Amish are not nicer or kinder than any other people however pacifist they are. The whole practice of shunning is, IMO, really hard to take. It takes a good Christian to hold a grudge for life like that. My father-in-law was on the receiving end of it, and it was a very sad story.
I guess, like every group, the Amish get some things right and some things wrong. I like their attitude toward technology. They decide whether they will use it or not based on whether it will disturb their lifestyle. I don't really agree with where they draw the line or some of their reasons, but I think it beats "anything for a buck" and "don't give a crap". Right now, we've rewired the brains and societal relations of a whole generation without giving it a second thought. At least the Amish have not.
DeleteStanley, I'm sure you're right about every group getting some things right and some things wrong. The shunning thing sounds painful and tragic though.
DeleteI wouldn't make a very good Amish; I'm not frugal and hardworking enough.
Special request of Jack - I asked about your observations of clericalism - or the lack of clericalism- in the Orthodox Church on the married priest thread.
ReplyDeleteI really am interested in what you see when you are with your Orthodox parish.
There is not a simple answer.
DeleteMy Orthodox parish is more in the hands of the people because it is small and requires the involvement and support of the people to make it work.
Doing the Orthodox liturgy just requires more people, servers, choir members, etc. But it also means you can have a great liturgy with only 20 or 30 people. The children are much more welcomed. They get to run around and cry etc. No attempt to isolate them.
However the priest is a very revered person. The children learn to reverently touch the priests garment as he passes. At the end of each liturgy each person goes up and kisses the priest's cross and receives his blessing. Of course afterwards he socializes at coffee and donuts like everyone else.
People go to confession quarterly, and the priests reminds them.
Women participate well as readers and singers, but they cannot enter the sanctuary.
This parish of about 100 families has a retired couple who spend have the year at a parish in Uganda. They raise about $200,000 to support Uganda children in their education.
I think the priest and his wife are closer to the people because they are married. However the solemnity of the liturgy still makes the priest a person set apart more like the pre-Vatican II liturgy did for our priests before they became more folksy in their presiding.