Very nice graphs today from the NY Times on the progression of the virus across time and space in the USA.
U.S. Virus Cases Climb Toward a Third Peak
The first peak (7 day average) was 31,709 cases on April 10 but mostly confined to NY and a few other areas. I suspect the lockdown across the country probably prevented much of the spread beyond, although it did reach a few places like Louisiana. The containment of the virus was probably aided by spring weather which allowed people to get outside much of the time.
The second peak was 66,690 on July 19 far more widespread but still mostly in the South followed by some spread toward the West. This peak was probably aided by the Republican governors who were eager to get out of lockdown plus the summer heat which drove people in the South back indoors.
The third peak toward which we are climbing is (as of October 13) at 52,156. My own projections suggest we will be close to 80,000 on election day. This third peak is concentrated in the Midwest, and especially in rural areas. Although the rural areas have few cases because of the lesser population, the density of the infection per 100,000 appears to be just as bad as in the cities, perhaps because people in rural areas have been reluctant to take up good virus avoidance practices such as masks, social distancing, and avoiding large groups. I suspect this third peak will be greatly aided by the arrival of cold weather across the plains states, Midwest, and northern states.
The interactive graph which allows us to see the progress of the virus from day to day is particularly interesting. I suspect we could end up with a peak above 100,000 a day sometime in November or December. This suggests that the we could be in dire straits within a month or two.
Will enough people recognize quickly enough that Trump has to be replaced? And if so, what will happen while we wait for Biden?
Michigan is going through its second peak. Since the Michigan Supreme Court overturned Gov. Whitmer's emergency orders, I expect the second spike to be worse, especially given the big family get-togethers at the holidays.
ReplyDeleteIf Trump loses, expect nothing to get done as he spends three months trying to hang on to power and pouting. If Trump wins, expect nothing to get done as he claims we already have a cure (steroids for free, as he touted in one of his drug addled videos) and a vaccine on the way.
"Michigan is going through its second peak."
DeleteSo is Illinois. To be specific, we had a sharp upslope then a sharp downslope in the spring: that was the first wave. Then, at the end of spring, a long, rather shallow upslope began; it increased slowly until the end of August, and then flattened through the end of September. When charted it looked like the perfect longer, shallower "flattening the curve" pattern that the shutdowns and restrictions were supposed to bring about.
That second, flat wave never receded; it ran at a high plateau for a month or so. And now, in the last 1-2 weeks, rather than see the beginnings of the downslope, we've seen a sharp uptick in the number of cases. (Similar observations are made in the NY Times article to which Jack directed us.) I am sure this is because of some of the factors Jack mentioned: people are moving inside as the weather gets chillier. Also, school has started up so people are congregating. Some schools are virtual but some aren't. And undoubtedly, people are lowering their guard, especially regarding social distancing, not because they are delusional but because they are fatigued; it is hard to maintain counterintuitive behavior for long periods of time.
All of these observations, as those in the article, are based on numbers of new cases. As the article notes, that's not necessarily the best way to measure the progress of the virus. A better way is to look at the positivity rate: the ratio of new cases to the number of tests. Illinois had a better story to tell about the positivity rate throughout the summer: the rate declined throughout much of the spring, hit a low point in mid-June, and stayed flat at that low point through all of the summer and into the fall. But now, in the last week, the positivity rate also has begun to climb.
So the recent surge in the last 1-2 weeks is real. But the experience in Illinois throughout the summer has been: cases did increase and then plateaued, but that probably was a function of more widespread testing, rather than because the virus was spreading faster. In other words, we found more cases during the summer (the so-called "second wave") because more people were tested. If you test more people, you will find more infections.
My conclusion, which I suppose is obvious but may be worth stating, is that overall our testing has not been adequate. Such testing as we have done has identified only a fraction of the actual number of cases. We know this because, as the number of tests has increased (and in Illinois, it has increased steadily all along), we continue to find more cases. Do these infections we're finding constitute a big fraction or a small fraction of the actual number of infections out there in the population? I don't know. I don't know if anyone knows.
I asked in a previous comment what a Biden administration can do. Let me answer my own question: it can fund more widespread testing, and also try to stand up an effort toward contact tracing. Even if vaccines come quickly, we're foolish not to pursue these test-and-trace measures. We should be planning for the worst rather than hoping for the best (the latter being Trump's characteristic governing approach, especially when it comes to the coronavirus).
Our stats look about as you describe, though I think our first peak in the urban areas was more disastrous because of the concentration in Detroit metro that overwhelmed hospitals.
DeleteWe are back in the verge of overwhelming some hospitals, but auxiliary units can now be mobilized quicker. It will be the lack of staff to deal with another flood of admissions that will be the problem if cases keep rising.
Our death rate went from 10 percent to 5 percent, probably because cases are dispersed and more young people are pulling through and nursing homes are better equipped with protocols and PPE.
The infection rate is about 4.something statewide, but higher in some regions. Yoopers refused to mask, and some counties up there are now in the red zone.
I suggested to my cancer group that we note on our calendars any trips or visits we made where we were around others. This would help with contact tracing. People liked this idea as a simple civic service they could perform, and many of them have their family and friends doing likewise.
Just a thought.
What would a Biden administration do about it, that would be radically different? I suppose it can engage in some of the "soft leadership" which has been lacking: try to rally and unify the country to common purpose. And perhaps the political shenanigans emanating from the White House's political operation would stop working at cross-purposes with the NIH and CDC. Those factors might make some marginal difference? Beyond that, what specific policies can a president pursue, given the current situation? Not asking this cynically (although, in truth, I am pessimistic that much will change). I'd really like to know what bold, difference-making strokes can be dealt.
ReplyDeleteWell more testing and case follow up. That is what DeWine has been advocating here in Ohio. But it never got done, largely I think because the federal government never made them a priority. Neither have the reliable tests been available nor has money been set aside for the case workers to follow and quarantine.
DeleteThis is the strategy that China and all the other nations that have successfully reduced the virus have done. Of course if you have a massive outbreak like China, you have to shut everything down for a while to get the virus down to a manageable level.
By now most of what can be done will be a case of "too little, too late". The best hope now is a vaccine. It is actually encouraging that one trial has been halted pending investigation into a case of possible side effects. It means the pharmaceuticals are taking seriously their pledge not to bypass safety protocols.
DeleteI'm not looking for much to happen outside of "same old, same old" during the lame duck period. They will have gotten their SCOTUS justice confirmed, that is a big thing the Rs can tick off their list.
There was an ominous report in the WaPo that the White House is entertaining some doctors (real ones, not the ones who believe STDs are transmitted by demons), who are pushing the Swedish model--let the virus "spread naturally" among the young and healthy population.
DeleteBut I'm not sure that covid confers long-term immunity on the infected and that herd immunity--like with measles--is possible. Some preliminary clinical data from China suggests that people can get re-infected.
It seems to me that the best approach is to fight the virus on several levels--masks, distancing, vaccines, PPE in clinical settings, and lots of testing and tracing. It's kind of what's going on in a piecemeal way now.
The COVID increase may act as its own sort of "voter suppression", some people who had planned to vote in person may decide it is too risky. And by now it will be iffy to get an absentee ballot in time.
ReplyDeleteOur state has an increase in cases similar to what you are saying. Some restrictions had been lifted, now they are likely to be walked back, including those in churches.
Relating to Jim's post on music, there had been some music brought back in our parish. One verse of an entrance and exit hymn, and a Gospel alleluia. And that is pretty much it. The choir I am in, a fairly small group, has sung a couple of times. We were distanced and wore masks, except when actually singing. I wore a KN95 mask even when singing. We are scheduled again this Sunday. I had to text them that I would sit this one out because of the increase in cases.
In Fratelli Tutti, Pope Francis, quoting himself, writes:
ReplyDeleteHere I would once more observe that “politics must not be subject to the economy, nor should the economy be subject to the dictates of an efficiency-driven paradigm of technocracy”....[177]
We tightened, then we got premature reopenings, but not on the basis of science. "Adequate" testing, at last, justified the re-openings, but very few states had enough tracing to turn "adequacy" into a survival tool.
The fact was, we had premature re-openings because governors could not imagine an economy that is not subject to the efficiency directed paradigm of technology. They had seen an alternative: Stimulus that directed money where it was needed violated all kinds of efficiency and violated the sacred Republican principle of balancing budgets (a principle they always throw out the window when they get in power). Stimulus actually helped both people and the economy, although it probably would have given Milton Friedman (and Jim Pauwels) the vapours. So Republicans, sensing the end, have returned to that Old Time Religion for when Ds are stuck with the power.
But, as Sportin' Life said about that Old Time Religion, It ain't necessarily so.
Tom - Uncle Miltie and both would agree (at least I'm pretty sure he would agree, I know I do) that stimulus money helps people. It helps the economy in the sense that it might minimize the damage from a recession. He and I are skeptical that that approach would be a long-term formula to stimulate economic growth. We need the dreaded free market for that.
DeleteAt one point, Senate Republicans didn't like the Democratic House stimulus package on offer because it included items that weren't really related to bailing out individuals, small businesses, schools and the like. I admit I've lost track of the negotiations since then; all I know is they're stuck. I'm surprised, this close to an election, especially with the Senate hanging in the balance, that Senate Republicans haven't scrambled to make a deal, but they must be seeing things in their polling which aren't intuitive to me.
Jim, The only thing I can think of is that so many grifters and grafters got caught taking money allegedly to keep paying the several hundred thousand employees of their small businesses that they decided another round would not be worth their while.
DeleteI am left, though, with the question of why Sen Addison M. McConnell is willing to miss this chance to do what he desires second only to replacing the federal judiciary with the Federalist Society, i.e., making sure employers are held harmless when they make their minions return to work without providing safety equipment against the coronavirus. It'd also be a chance to force OSHA off the road, thereby earning the Grand Old Party blessings without number from the National Association of Manufacturers
I downloaded the PA COVID tracing app a while ago. It gives updated stats on the virus. The infection graph shows a peak of 2,000 per day in April descending to a plateau of 1,000 per day and now it's spiked back to almost April levels. The death rate graph shows a correlating peak of 150 per day which goes all the way down to a plateau of 15 per day. There has been no increase yet despite the spike in infections. I suspect the following factors are at work:
ReplyDeleteNew infections are among less vulnerable populations.
Medical experience is greater.
Vulnerable populations are more aware and protected.
Masking and quarantine are reducing viral loads leading to less fatal exposures.