New Cases of the Virus: Two projections UPDATED!

I have maintained that the election is mostly Trump vs. the Virus, that if the virus is resurging Trump will lose, and if it diminishes then he has a good chance of winning. 

As you know, I like to make projections of the virus new cases based on previous data.  When it became evident that cases were beginning to diminish in August, I calculated a rate of a 1.5% decrease per day beginning with a daily average of 67567 cases on July 25th.. Up until the last week that has resulted in very good predictions. 

The Table after the break gives the new cases per day from the Times database in the first column, the average of the last seven days in the second column,  and the predicted number of cases beginning on July 25th  as a recent high average.in the third column. The fourth column shows whether the predicted number was lower ( minus) or higher (plus) than the average number. 

 As you can see prediction has sometimes been lower and sometimes higher. Last Friday the prediction was 911 cases higher than the seven day average but then on Saturday the prediction came in 934 cases lower then the average. In other words for over a month the decrease per day has been remarkably close to 1.5%. If this continues, it says that during most of October cases will be below 25000 and will reach about 15000 by election day. If this becomes true, then the virus will diminish as a present issue and real future issue in the minds of voters. I think this will greatly enhance Trump's chances of winning.

On the other hand since last Friday, there has been a steady increase of cases at the rate of 3% per day. This might be a temporary increase due to the Labor Day weekend, or the beginning of another wave triggered by the return to school, and more indoor activities as sunlight diminishes. If this continues then cases will again be at the 60,000 plus level during the time when ballots will begin being cast and could be double that by election day (and/or with the likelihood of lockdown type situations to prevent further escalation)  I think this will greatly decrease Trumps chances of winning. 

(The NY Times has attempted to monitor the rate of decrease by comparing the average of new cases for this week with the average for last week. This tends to obscure the long period of steady decrease that has occurred. If the second scenario obtains, in the next few days or weeks we will see the Times decreasing percentages change to increasing percentages.) 

 LOCAL UPDATE 

I agree with Jim and others that the local viewpoint is very important. We here in Ohio are very fortunate that the Governor gives regular press conferences on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons at 2pm.

These are very well produced. I think as well as much of daytime television. DeWine has a nice folksy matter. Always starts with a "school tie" promoting various educational institutions. A lot of personal acknowledgements. He usually does an interview or two with college presidents, or high school superintendents or various medical personnel or first responders to give a good sense as to what is happening on the ground. In the last few weeks he has been doing the shows from his home in Cedarville, complete with dog. He even had his personal physician do a house call to give him and his wife a flue shot as part of his promotion of flue shots. 

On Thursdays he always has an updated map of Ohio with a color system by county to review  the status. He notes the changes (good and bad) and goes into detail about the most as risk counties. He usually tells a story to illustrate how it is not simply a bunch of bad apples but good people making bad judgments that put others at risk.

I think it is worth the watch.  What has been going on here in Ohio is very similar to the national data.

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine - COVID-19 Update | September 17, 2020

NEW CASES OF THE VIRUS

 

		NEW	SEVEN	-1.5%	OVER	TIMES	3.0%
		CASES	DAY	DECREASE	UNDER	WEEKLY	INCREASE
		PER DAY	AVERAGE	PER DAY		PERCENT	PER DAY
SAT	25	68200	67567	67567	0
SUN	26	54300	66633	66553	-80
MON	27	59200	65583	65555	-28
TUE	28	63100	64467	64572	105
WED	29	68460	64210	63603	-607
THR	30	64632	62982	62649	-333
FRI	31	67741	62906	61709	-1196
AUGUST	1	58183	63553	60784	-2769
SUN	2	48849	61828	59872	-1955
MON	3	47832	59283	58974	-309
TUE	4	58800	57673	58089	417
WED	5	53633	55840	57218	1378
THR	6	55267	53761	56360	2599
FRI	7	54332	53119	55514	2396
SAT	8	55196	54177	54682	505
SUN	9	53772	55167	53861	-1305
MON	10	53724	54321	53054	-1267
TUE	11	53344	54273	52258	-2015
WED	12	53723	54015	51474	-2541
THR	13	53213	53829	50702	-3127
FRI	14	53066	53474	49941	-3532
SAT	15	50335	52901	49192	-3709	-16%
SUN	16	51523	52534	48454	-4080	-17%
MON	17	40022	50314	47727	-2586	-16%
TUE	18	43226	48564	47012	-1553	-17%
WED	19	42932	46851	46306	-544	-17%
THR	20	46029	45678	45612	-66	-17%
FRI	21	45273	44834	44928	93	-18%
SAT	22	45007	43748	44254	505	-19%
SUN	23	32340	42468	43590	1122	-22%
MON	24	40309	41982	42936	954	-21%
TUE	25	38712	41278	42292	1014	-22%
WED	26	44877	41086	41658	571	-22%
THR	27	45561	41134	41033	-102	-21%
FRI	28	46556	41393	40417	-975	-6%
SAT	29	41869	42981	39811	-3170	-2%
SUN	30	33239	41802	39214	-2589	-19%
MON	31	36132	41372	38626	-2747	-17%
SEPT	1	44027	41231	38046	-3184	-13%
WED	2	40607	40405	37476	-2929	-12%
THR	3	45600	40246	36913	-3332	-12%
FRI	4	51457	41844	36360	-5484	-7%
SAT	5	42800	43437	35814	-7623	-7%
SUN	6	31061	42592	35277	-7315	-4%
MON	7	25167	39449	34748	-4701	-9%
TUE	8	28549	37439	34227	-3212	-13%
WED	9	33201	35373	33713	-1659	-13%
THR	10	37786	33094	33208	114	-16%
FRI	11	35028	31799	32709	911	-17%	31799
SAT	12	39184	33153	32219	-934	-18%	32753
SUN	13	35085	34806	31736	-3070	-17%	33736
MON	14	36836	36187	31260	-4927	-12%	34748
TUE	15	38211	37022	30791	-6231	-10%	35790
WED	16	39124	37245	30329	-6916	-3%	36864
THR	17			29874			37970
FRI	18			29426			39109
SAT	19			28984			40282
SUN	20			28550			41490
MON	21			28121			42735
TUE	22			27700			44017
WED	23			27284			45338
THR	24			26875			46698
FRI	25			26472			48099
SAT	26			26075			49542
SUN	27			25683			51028
MON	28			25298			52559
TUE	29			24919			54136
WED	30			24545			55760
OCT	1			24177			57433
FRI	2			23814			59156
SAT	3			23457			60930
SUN	4			23105			62758
MON	5			22758			64641
TUE	6			22417			66580
WED	7			22081			68577
THR	8			21750			70635
FRI	9			21423			72754
SAT	10			21102			74936
SUN	11			20786			77185
MON	12			20474			79500
TUE	13			20167			81885
WED	14			19864			84342
THR	15			19566			86872
FRI	16			19273			89478
SAT	17			18984			92162
SUN	18			18699			94927
MON	19			18418			97775
TUE	20			18142			100708
WED	21			17870			103730
THR	22			17602			106841
FRI	23			17338			110047
SAT	24			17078			113348
SUN	25			16822			116749
MON	26			16569			120251
TUE	27			16321			123858
WED	28			16076			127574
THR	29			15835			131401
FRI	30			15597			135344
SAT	31			15363			139404
NOV	1			15133			143586