The headline on my local paper today is: “Expert: Reopening likely explains surge.” In the vague way newspapers are edited these days, you have to reach pretty far into the jump to find out that the expert is an epidemiologist at the University of Florida. By that time, you have read that the governor thinks our county is some kind of weird exception but that the statistics show that what’s happening here is happening statewide.
Bottom line: Covid-19 has gone right along infecting people while our politicians — acting on the best available scientific information thought up by the president — are boldly facing it with openings and “not backing down.”
The county was getting 86.6 new cases a day during April. It is getting 168.2 now. In April we were in lockdown. Today I could get a haircut. But I won’t.
I never believed in the reopening.
I don’t pay much attention to “new cases” because they are a function of testing. Testing has gone from (unlike other countries) almost none to having a lot of tests, producing information that (unlike other countries) the president and governor have no idea what to do with. Besides, the state has been credibly accused of fudging the numbers several ways, and even the governor says they should be ignored — while insisting that all of his decisions re based on the same numbers.
As he points out, a shocking number of Florida deaths have been in prisons and during homes. To him, prisoners and old people don’t count as voters and taxpayers. The governor is responsible for most of the prisons, of course, and the state is supposed to have been inspecting nursing homes. But Florida doesn’t get good government because the prevailing party thinks it interferes with business.
I have been more trusting of deaths, since they are harder to conceal. We have now reached 410 in our county of 1.5 million, compared to seven in Taiwan (pop. 23.8 million).
There are parallel realities going on now. In one, the country is climbing out of the coronavirus but fearing a surge in the fall. In the other, the country is pretending the virus is over. Neither has much factual basis.
So we get a headline about a “surge” that is pretty much more of the same being explained by decisions to stop trying to prevent its spread.
That’s a big duh.
We haven’t been to Sunday Mass since they resumed on Pentecost. We view the stream. I have made one week-day Mass each week since the week before Pentecost. Those are no longer streamed, but we have found some nice Masses around the country to watch on the computer. I told the pastor he won’t see me on Sunday until October. The way things are going, I probably should exercise prudence and make that October, 2022.
On a lighter note, maskless demonstrations and lunches are planned here, by his devoted cult, for Sunday in honor of the 74th birthday of the Health Expert-in-Chief.
UPDATE: I have to pass this on.
Today's headline is "Cases Hit Record as Phase 2 Looms." Phase 2 opens all retail stores, gyms and restaurant bars without capacity restrictions. Normally good things don't "loom," but I will buy the verb in light of this info: Florida recorded 1,902 new cases yesterday, eclipsing the record set the day before. The county had 300 new cases for the first time.
The governor says the case rocket to the moon can't have anything to do with the Phase 1 openings because that was six weeks ago. The new cases must be coming out of nowhere.
In other news Jacksonville gets the great Trump Acceptance Rally, no masks, no distancing (no brains), and it scheduled for Jacksonville's celebration of the 60th anniversary of Ax Handle Saturday, when 200 white men with baseball bats an ax handles attacked a restaurant to break up a peaceful sit-in.
You cannot make this stuff up.
One of my theories is that people don't do reopening in stages - that's too complicated. They're binary: they're either Off or On. So the country either is Closed (meaning - don't leave the house for any reason whatever) or Open (meaning - just go back to how things were before).
ReplyDeleteI hope someone explains this to the virus, and that it's a good sport about this.
I've got 3 strikes against me: 79, diabetic and type A+ blood.
DeleteI'm going to remain under the bed with my fingers in my ears and my thumb in my mouth (btw, it's quite a trick to be able to do that!).
Decision making is always easier if you ignore science. I understand the motivation for opening up. But isn't it a false dichotomy: healthy economy and death versus crippled economy and life. If there were enough testing, it seems to me there could be opening of activities while keeping the virus in abeyance. Also, the most vulnerable populations could be firewalled from the virus. Unfortunately, the federal government is required to organize and support these efforts but is out to lunch, a business lunch.
ReplyDeleteI'll maintain personal efforts to keep myself healthy. That's the best way to keep others from getting it. And, admittedly, it is scary given the unpredictability of the outcome for any individual. I live alone and some people need help getting on and off the pot. That would not be fun.
I miss dancing and I'm afraid that'll be the last activity I can resume, if any studios are still in business.
In our town people seem to be following the staged reopening scenario, cautiously and gradually. In Omaha, not so much. It's more like Jim said, binary. And now it's open. They had their demonstrations too, with numbers in the thousands. The people there seemed to think the virus wouldn't come to a protest, in the pictures I saw no one was wearing a mask. I'm dreading to hear about increased cases in a week or so. Needless to say we won't be visiting our kids anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of whom, our oldest son was sick for a couple of days last week. He had a fever, aches, chills, fatigue. Then it was gone and he is fine. Was it COVID? That is what we would all like to know. Both he and his wife have been working from home, shopping online, and not going anywhere. They have KN95 masks. I really hope it wasn't Covid, because she has some health issues and might not bounce back as well as he did.
BTW has anyone read about blood types being an indicator of how severely one might get the virus? I don't know whether that has any credibility, there are some strange theories going around. Supposedly the "O" blood type is believed to fare better. The son who was sick and recovered quickly is an O.
A is worst, Katherine. O is best. The rest somewhere in the middle. I'm B+. It'll have to do.
DeleteI've read that "A" have a tougher course, but ???? do I believe it?
DeleteWe are a big country so it takes time to spread the virus around from state to state and within states to all the outlying counties. So some of our states such as Florida are increasing while others such as Ohio are decreasing.
ReplyDeleteThat is all complicated by the phased re-openings. Ohio began the easy re-openings such as wholesale, then retail, then dining and only now entertainment and gyms where it is a lot more difficult to manage things.
I was looking a model based on three waves that each last about six months, e.g. if the virus begins as in NY in January reaches a peak in late March then dies down to a nader in late June. Then the predicted resurgence begins in July and August and would become very threatening just about the time school resumes. All they really going to reopen the schools in the midst of a second wave peak I doubt it. Can they really keep the economy going when kids are at home? I doubt it.
The national statistics have been slowly going down but occasionally they surge up enough for me to model a rising curve for about five days. When that happens my curve gives us only about a week or two to recognize the coming of a new wave before we are in really deep trouble.
The study that I followed was modeling food disruptions based on worker disruptions. It predicts the food disruptions get worse with each new wave.
Katherine, I too have read that observational studies of covid patients indicate that type O patients may be less vulnerable, while type A is more vulnerable to serious disease. I am type B. Don't know where that falls on the blood type vulnerability spectrum.
ReplyDeleteMy husband is now at triple risk by having Type A blood, his age, and heart failure, diagnosed last August after going to the ER because he told me "I can't breathe". But medical disease conditions can be treated. Hate that snuffs out a man's life is a tougher disease to eradicate.
The docs, having ruled out the most common culprits for heart failure - coronary artery disease, valve problems and Afib or similar - suspect he may have had a mild virus (aka, a cold) early last summer that attacked the heart. Obviously he does not need a new attack by this coronavirus.
So, like Stanley, we will be pretty much trapped at home for another year or two in order to protect ourselves. I don't know if people around here will continue to social distance, wear masks etc, once the state/county fully open. Phase 2 in our county starts next week even though ICU beds in the county are at 100% capacity. Deaths are declining though.
Around here people who may have had COVID but were not seriously sick can now be tested for antibodies. Perhaps your son could do that.
He is going to check about the availability of antibody testing in his area. It would give him more freedom if he knew he already had it. And we should soon know if his wife is going to catch whatever it was.
DeleteThe possible blood type connection is interesting. Makes one wonder how that could work. I am O-, my husband is A+, the other son is A-. I remember having to get the Rho-Gam shot after the birth of the oldest, because of Rh incompatibility. I guess now they do it prenatally.
I had the antibody test done a couple of weeks ago. My count wasn't zero but didn't reach the minimum threshold. At least that's my amateur interpretation of the results that were presented to me on the doctor's office's patient portal.
DeleteSo Jim, does that mean you may have been exposed to the virus at some point, but your immune system fought it off? Or maybe you had some other corona virus in the past, and a little crossover antibodies, but not enough to meet the threshold. I know, rhetorical questions. There is so much we don't know yet.
DeleteMany of these antibody tests are very inaccurate. I would not assume that I had the virus unless there was a clear occasion that I had symptoms of the virus and would likely have tested positive for active virus at that time
DeleteAnyone who deals with vulnerable people should assume that they can be infected by the virus, and can pass it on to a vulnerable person in the few days before they themselves become symptomatic. There are also situations in which persons who never became symptomatic transmitted it to other people.
When I look at the NY Times map of counties in the USA where new cases are developing in the last 2 weeks, most of them are in the South.
ReplyDeleteWhy? Perhaps because in the South people are beginning to congregate in air conditioned facilities whereas in the North we are enjoying being outdoors rather than being inside in the air conditioning.
When we in the North begin to gather in airconditioned facilities in late June and July the next wave of the pandemic could begin to rise. I suspect most air conditioning systems do not have the refreshment rates especially with outdoor air to remove enough of the virus from the indoor air.
Here is a new level of hypocrisy. According to the New York Times, people signing up for the Trump Tulsa rally next week must agree to the following clauses:
ReplyDelete“By clicking register below, you are acknowledging that an inherent risk of exposure to Covid-19 exists in any public place where people are present. By attending the rally, you and any guests voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to Covid-19 and agree not to hold Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.; BOK Center; ASM Global; or any of their affiliates, directors, officers, employees, agents, contractors or volunteers liable for any illness or injury.”
That kind of thinking reflects Sen. Addison M. McConnell's zeal to insure that employers who order their employees back to work cannot be held responsible for anything they don't do to protect their employees from the coronavirus. For cult members, cheering The Don is more life-sustaining than a paycheck. They have to go.
(When btw, did we start having to sign up for public political events?)
In a way, it's good to have that sign up feature, along with the risk warning. It might cause those who are in denial to think twice. Of course the purpose of those planning the event is to deflect responsibility from themselves. But it adds a layer of intentionality. It also underlines the fact that the "re-elect Donald Trump" effort doesn't care about their safety. We know what they do care about. We'll see how many are actually willing to take the risk.
Delete"They have to gp." Maybe they will think that. I'm thinking that the whole clown show of the Trump administration has to go, on Nov. 3.
The parish I used to attend is reopening this Sunday. You must pre-register for the mass of your choice and indicate a second choice as well. You are guaranteed a seat for the mass for which you have been accepted. Not guarantee that you'll get your usual seat in your usual pew next to your usual pew mates, though.
DeleteBah,humbug.
NYC: Had a fun walk yesterday with a member of the local aip movie group. She came by. We walked to the Hardware store (10 blocks), bought a sponge mop replacement (3.99), walked back down Broadway, stopped and social-distanced on a bench at the local street park.
ReplyDeleteShe is a Mormon. We traded "what's church like" stories... the Mormons are definitely into Zoom. We have our You Tube Mass. Had a brief conversation about a mutual favorite BBC retread "Inspector Lewis." [Question: was Hathaway always the sidekick?] We parted at my corner with promises to wlak again soon.
At least in this part of NYC, most people are masked (including the sales people at the hardware store), keep a distance...no one knows the dimensions of six feet, so it's approximate. The restaurants are only open for take-out. Some have opened their windows and are selling drinks from a well-stocked table. Probably totally illegal, but who's giving out citations?
You are watching Inspector Lewis, which we watched previously. Now we are watching its predecessor, Morse. I enjoy seeing the younger Lewis develop his character. Actually like him better than Morse, who can be a jerk sometimes. I liked Morse better when he was Endeavour. Which is supposed to have another season, if they ever get around to filming again. I think Hathaway was always Lewis' sidekick on Inspector Lewis.
DeleteHave you ever watched Vera? We like her. But am mad at Britbox and Acorn, because you have to get both to see the whole series. We already had Britbox, and took the free month trial of Acorn. Will have to see if we want to pay for it. Got hooked on The Good Karma Hospital, which Acorn carries.
Morse: Can't understand what their saying unless you watch them five or six times (and I had read the novels). Yes, Endeavor (the prequel of life of E.Morse); why are they holding back on the "last" season? PBS wants it for their Fall fund-raising! (I happen to think that season 7 is done...and 8 is promised).
DeleteMy friend (mentioned above) is an ardent fan of "Foyle's War" as are we..... Have not watched Versa or any of the others. Can they really be as good?
Closed caption helps with the British accents. I like Lewis' "Geordie" accent.
DeleteI imagine COVID has interfered with filming the new seasons of anything.
Anne Cleves was the author of the Vera books, which I haven't read. She also was the writer for the Shetland series. Which has also promised an additional season.
Vera is middle aged and frumpy, and bosses her staff around. But is very good at solving murders. Has very good looking young male sidekicks, Joe Ashworth, and later, Aidan.
I have enjoyed all three Morse series. Perhaps they will do another with Hathaway as senior detective once the actor is finished with Victoria. I have read all the Shetland series and watched the TV version. Vera is a great character. In her case, being a nice, middle-aged dumpy woman with a working class accent makes others lower their guard - they underestimate her based on the externals. A good advantage for a detective. Her staff knows the truth about her though. ��
DeleteYeah, I like Vera. There is a bit of a mystery about a sister she has never met (I'm assuming a half sister?) Maybe from a relationship her father didn't tell anyone about. I don't know if they ever do anything with that story line. Vera knows where the sister lives, but hesitated about trying to meet her.
DeleteVera needs to take better care of herself. She eats a horrible diet and doesn't get enough sleep.
I also enjoyed Foyle's War and was sorry when it was over. I've liked Michael Kitchen since Enchanted April, one of my all-time favorite movies.
DeleteBut with Foyle's War I was beginning to think that he plays the same character every time - until I saw him in one of the murder mystery series, playing the bad guy.
So he doesn't always portray a kind and gentle character.
Of course Vera needs to take better care of herself - but that's why many can relate to her character. Out of shape, junk food and no sleep. And too much alcohol.
Yes, I know we've discussed these series before. I like all the Morse-related series. Fred Thursday on the Endeavour series is a great character. Whoever writes his dialogue has a good ear for period-piece colorful turns and phrases. And I'm with Anne in anticipating that there will be a Hathaway series.
DeleteI also liked Foyle's War. There could be a sequel possibility there with Sam and her MP hubby.
I've seen a few episodes of Vera. Tried to interest my wife in it, but she found the character annoying.
I've had my fill of the costume dramas. We actually gave up on Poldark - never saw the last season. I enjoyed Downton Abbey but, contrary to the title of the special they trot out every pledge drive, I don't really miss it. I lost interest in Victoria after the first season; I'm a little dismayed to read in these comments that the series isn't over yet :-). Call the Midwife (which probably doesn't qualify as a costume drama, although they do have some terrific 60s-era fashions on it) can blow hot and cold. I just have to accept that I'm not really the target audience for the costume dramas. Ah well, Law & Order is always on.
I gave up on Poldark too. I don’t think of Call the Midwife as a costume drama. I see it as an interesting way of tracing the changes in the culture as experienced by the poor in London’s East End, through the work of the doctors and nurses. They explore many controversial topics - unwed mothers. The lives of poor immigrants, birth control, illegal abortion, abandoned babies, birth defects ( thalidomide:was a big issue), vaccines, and of course, delivery of babies.
DeleteNow looking at the move to hospital births and away from home births by mid-wives. Of course, home births, birthing centers, and midwives have made a comeback in recent years. I shall miss Nonnatus House, the nuns, midwives, doctor, and assorted regular members of the community when it’s the last season. I have loved that one of the regular cast members is an actor with a Down Syndrome.
I suspect the final season will be the next one. After all,the PTB are going to mow down all those old buildings and replace them with high rises. Nonnatus House has already been given a one year extension, but I’m guessing that will be it.
Jim, I bet you and your wife would like The Good Karma Hospital. The main character is very likeable, and has some good story lines of practicing medicine in India.
DeleteDid anyone here watch The Good Place series? What did you think of it? It gets rave reviews but I didn't get past the third episode. Should I try again and stick with it a bit longer?
DeleteSaw The Good Place a few times, but couldn't stick with it. I heard it kind of ended up being like purgatory instead of heaven.
DeleteAnne I haven't heard of Good Karma Hospital, it hasn't reached our local PBS station yet. But I will be on the lookout for it now!
DeleteJim P: if you can get your hands on A French Village (in French with English subtitles) I think you … and others … will enjoy it. There's another French series, The Churchmen, if you can find it.
DeleteWhat I find most disturbing in this morning's news feeds are so many references to "post pandemic" life. So many people seem to assume this is over, or at least will be soon. I really doubt it.
ReplyDeleteToday's Wash Post: "Lots of us are infected by the coronavirus — and don’t know it. Here’s what that means."
ReplyDeleteBased on testing data from various settings and spots around the world... interesting. Corresponds with this scientific report from my doctor, "We're seeing a lot of weird symptoms in people." Aren't we though!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/11/how-find-out-whether-asymptomatic-covid-19-carriers-are-infectious/
DeleteThanks for the WaPo link. It sounds like a similar situation to polio, in which the majority are asymptomatic, but others have symptoms, and for some it is devastating. Also similar in that some are afflicted with sequelae.
DeleteSorry, bad polio link: http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/PH/Polio/Polio_NEW3.html
DeleteJack, I am curious about your theory relating to heat and AC use. New Zealand has no cases now, but they are heading into winter. Australia has 40 new cases, all traceable to residents returning from overseas, all in self-quarantine. Winter coming there also. Our son lives in Sydney, and it's cooler - when we call, his 3 year old son is wearing a heavy sweater and scarf.
ReplyDeleteBut, it doesn't really ever get very cold there, not even as cold as here in the mid-Atlantic. There are palm trees! His house is about 100 years old and has no central heating, and they just add a couple of layers and are fine. So, their first cases came in summer, and have receded dramatically. Summers in Australia are very hot - so people in the cities do seek out AC.
It will be interesting to see if the casaes go up again as the people start heading indoors more for some heating. The cases have gone down faster than expected, so they plan to lift some of the last to be lifted restrictions in a week or so instead of in July. Brazil is on/near the equator and has a hot and humid climate throughout the country. Of course the disease is raging there now. A lot of the people do not have AC and spend plenty of time outside. I find so many contradictory trends for different countries when I read about it. The use of masks, social distancing etc in Taiwan where Tom's granddaughter lives has resulted in so few cases it's almost astonishing.
I've seen pictures of the slums in Brazil, and the homes are sometimes literally on top of one another, with no space between. I'm guessing distancing is difficult to impossible under those circumstances. I don't know if the people who are in better housing are faring better with virus cases.
DeleteWith HVAC systems it is said that filters with a MERV rating of 13 wi!l filter out viruses. Our system has an ultraviolet lamp built in. I don't know if that is strong enough to kill viruses. The selling point when we bought it was that it killed molds.
DeleteKatherine, the UV is probably doing something. But how effectively depends on the cumulative exposure. I came across a number of 20,000 joules per square meter to disinfect a surface by a factor of one million. Best thing is to keep the windows open if a person of unknown status is in the house.
DeleteAnne,
ReplyDeleteMy thinking is based on Dr. Milton, a scientist and lung specialist who maintains that much transmission is by way of fine droplets that are expelled from the lungs, that some people expel more of these than others, and that it can take place just from breathing, i.e. does not need cough or sneeze. About 20% of the people expel 80% of the fine droplets.
Anything that increases the probability of exposure to such a person, e.g. crowds, short distances, prolonged events, confined spaces spreads the virus.
I am suggesting for the northern states the virus developed rapidly in January, February, and March because people were still inside a lot and therefore likely to encounter these super spreaders. As social distance rules went into effect they were less likely, and now that May and June have come they are likely to be outside a lot even as economy opens up.
The South may have had an early advantage since more people were outside, but now that the heat has come and they flee inside they are more likely to encounter these super spreaders. So will the Northern states once we get into July and August.
How this would work for other places and cultures would have to be thought out in terms, of crowds, distance, event lengths, and configurations of spaces.
Milton suggested that if we had good air conditioning systems that exchanged air rapidly with the outside, and added ultraviolet ceiling limits we might be able to tolerate group activities more.
"limits" should be "lamps"
DeleteJack, I think the difference between northern and southern states has more to do with the trumptoadyness of southern Republican governors than the weather. See the update above.
Delete