The first data column is National New Actual data calculated from the NY Total Actual numbers in the third data column. The Gray area in the middle column indicates the two weeks of data which were used to fit the curve.
Beginning on Wednesday March 18th the number of new cases each day exceeded the number of new cases predicted by the first two weeks of data. In other words things where headed in a very bad direction because the effects of social distancing had not kicked in. These days are indicated in RED in the middle column
Beginning on Wednesday March 18th the effects of social distancing began to show up in the data as the number of new cases began to drop below the predicted levels. Indicted by ORANGE in the middle column.
Beginning on Tuesday March 31st we have entered a plateau in which the number of NEW cases has fluctuated between 25,000 and 35,000. This is indicate by YELLOW in the middle column. I have also Yellowed the Saturday March 28th and March 29th of the National Predicted Column to indicate where on the upward predicted spike we plateaued.
The PINK areas on the New Predicted and National Total Predicted curves indicate all the places we might have gone if we had not changed our behavior. It is really our behavior that matters right now.
What is frightening about the data is how very little time we had to act. A few days either way means all the difference in where we plateaued. Things could have been better or much, much worse. That also has implications for relaxing social distancing by reopening business.
Besides our social distancing HERD IMMUNITY, AND WARM WEATHER AND SUNSHINE may also reduce New Cases. I think we should maintain the present situation until see New cases down in the 10,000 to 20,000 level. Otherwise there could easily be a resurgence before we realize that we have made a huge mistake. We are all sitting just days away from the extreme situations that developed in Wuhan, Italy, and New York
|
National
|
National
|
National
|
National
|
|||
|
New
|
New
|
Total
|
Total
|
|||
|
Actual
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
Predicted
|
|||
|
March
|
||||||
|
TUE
|
3
|
|||||
|
WED
|
4
|
350
|
||||
|
THR
|
5
|
50
|
50
|
|
400
|
|
|
FRI
|
6
|
80
|
66
|
|
466
|
|
|
SAT
|
7
|
90
|
86
|
|
552
|
|
|
SUN
|
8
|
110
|
114
|
|
666
|
|
|
MON
|
9
|
150
|
150
|
|
815
|
|
|
TUE
|
10
|
200
|
197
|
|
1012
|
|
|
WED
|
11
|
260
|
259
|
|
1269
|
1271
|
|
THR
|
12
|
400
|
340
|
|
1660
|
1611
|
|
FRI
|
13
|
440
|
447
|
|
2100
|
2058
|
|
SAT
|
14
|
659
|
588
|
|
2759
|
2646
|
|
SUN
|
15
|
843
|
773
|
|
3602
|
3419
|
|
MON
|
16
|
880
|
1017
|
|
4482
|
4435
|
|
TUE
|
17
|
1399
|
1337
|
|
5881
|
5772
|
|
WED
|
18
|
2436
|
1758
|
|
8317
|
7530
|
|
THR
|
19
|
4075
|
2312
|
|
12392
|
9842
|
|
FRI
|
20
|
5570
|
3040
|
|
17962
|
12882
|
|
SAT
|
21
|
6418
|
3997
|
|
24380
|
16879
|
|
SUN
|
22
|
8638
|
5257
|
|
33018
|
22136
|
|
MON
|
23
|
10481
|
6912
|
|
43499
|
29048
|
|
TUE
|
24
|
15353
|
9090
|
|
58852
|
38138
|
|
WED
|
25
|
9656
|
11953
|
|
68508
|
50091
|
|
THR
|
26
|
16873
|
15718
|
|
85381
|
65810
|
|
FRI
|
27
|
17255
|
20670
|
|
102636
|
86480
|
|
SAT
|
28
|
20981
|
27181
|
|
123617
|
113660
|
|
SUN
|
29
|
18378
|
35743
|
|
141995
|
149403
|
|
MON
|
30
|
21580
|
47002
|
|
163575
|
196405
|
|
TUE
|
31
|
24672
|
61807
|
|
188247
|
258212
|
|
APRIL
|
1
|
26214
|
81277
|
|
214461
|
339489
|
|
THR
|
2
|
29767
|
106879
|
|
244228
|
446367
|
|
FRI
|
3
|
32154
|
140545
|
|
276382
|
586913
|
|
SAT
|
4
|
35154
|
184817
|
|
311536
|
771730
|
|
SUN
|
5
|
25230
|
243035
|
|
336766
|
1014765
|
|
MON
|
6
|
29472
|
319591
|
|
366238
|
1334356
|
|
TUE
|
7
|
31516
|
420262
|
|
397754
|
1754617
|
|
WED
|
8
|
31508
|
552644
|
|
429262
|
2307261
|
|
THR
|
9
|
34357
|
726727
|
|
463619
|
3033989
|
|
FRI
|
10
|
33017
|
955646
|
|
496636
|
3989635
|
|
SAT
|
11
|
33390
|
1256675
|
|
530026
|
5246309
|
|
SUN
|
12
|
25345
|
1652527
|
|
555371
|
6898836
|
|
MON
|
13
|
25507
|
2173073
|
|
580878
|
9071910
|
|
TUE
|
14
|
25922
|
2857591
|
|
606800
|
11929501
|
|
WED
|
15
|
30117
|
3757733
|
|
636917
|
15687234
|
|
THR
|
16
|
31028
|
4941418
|
|
667945
|
20628652
|
|
FRI
|
17
|
31908
|
6497965
|
|
699853
|
27126617
|
Thanks, Jack. Very interesting. And encouraging to know our collective efforts are making a difference. A big one, actually. The temptation, as you noted, is to jump too quickly into normalization and send case counts back up. I hope the state governors will consult public health statisticians. We already know it won't make any difference to the president. He only consults his "gut".
ReplyDeleteI don't see how we can proceed to open things without extensive testing. We need to find out how many people have had the virus and what symptoms and outcomes they had. This will allow us to assess risk. Maybe there's more herd immunity than we think. Maybe not. But Trump and the republicans are more interested in getting the money flowing and are afraid testing will contraindicate relaxing restrictions. Trumps investments are hurting badly. I'm sure his daily reports in violation of the emoluments clause are not good news and that is bothering him like a hemorrhoid attack. And it's interesting how expendable old people are to prolife Republicans when profits are involved.
ReplyDeleteFortunately our test capacity is increasing, both with test kits and the Abbott Lab apparatus which was released last week. Abbott also has an apparatus that tests antibody titers. These machines are about the size of a toaster and can give answers in 15 minutes.
DeleteAgree that the Rs can no longer credibly claim to be the prolife party.
Well, you only think that because you don't have the metrics in your stable genius brain.
DeleteWhat they don't get is that if all the worker bees get sick, the money stops flowing. Submitted for your consideration: Smithfield pork packers. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/us/coronavirus-south-dakota-meat-plant-refugees.html
It's not just us old people who are vulnerable.
I think it would be delicious irony if so many of these poorly paid workers have to be replaced with folks waiting just south of the border for admittance into the Land of Entitled White People in Golf Carts to keep the pork ribs flowing.
I remember when the Republican politicians were bloviating about death panels for the elderly if we got Obamacare or, even worse, single payer. But now we have Republican death panels deciding that old people can be traded off against business as usual. Mitch and Donny Boy aren't spring chickens. If they succumbed after a quarantine relaxation, it might be worth it. But I'd bet they have a stash of Remesdivir all ready to go.
DeleteSpeaking of Remdesivir, here is a good article explaining its mode of operation, and why it may be effective against coronavirus. The drawback: it's given intravenously, which means you can't just have your doc phone in a prescription to your pharmacy.
DeleteThe hope may be in some of those businesses The Don allegedly has been talking to. Almost "by the way" they are telling him they need testing so they can't be held liable if they reopen too soon and cases spike. The Don has arranged it so the governors, not he, will be responsible if that happens. But either way, the businesses will get dragged into the finger pointing.
DeleteThanks, Jack. Thanks also for the link to the Abbey for compline.
ReplyDelete