After the decision Nevada caucus in which Bernie got widespread support (the Hispanic vote, the culinary workers even though their union has opposed Medicare for all) AND no one else really ended up in second place ahead of the rest of the field, the Next Debate could be decisive.
The rest of the candidates are obviously going to attack Bernie just as much, even more than Bloomberg in the last debate.
But his theme for uniting his supporters has always been NOT ME, US. If he can extend that message to include the whole party (and ultimately the whole American people) he has a very good chance of winning the nomination early, and the election decisively.
TRUMP IS ALL ABOUT HIMSELF, no one, not even Trump disputes that.
"Let me first thank the people of Nevada for their support. We put together a multi-racial, multi-generational coalition across the state that will win not only in Nevada, but all across this country.
No other campaign has a grassroots movement like we do, which is a large reason why we're gonna win this election."
Sander's e-mail this morning
Whether or not they're voting for him, 65% of registered voters nationwide think President Trump will definitely or probably be reelected, including more than a third of Democrats who think so.
HOWEVER responding to actual matchups, likely voters
Vote for Sanders 47% to Trumps 44%
The opinions of who would likely defeat Trump
Sanders 27% of all voters 46% of Democrats
Biden 26% of all voters 49% of Democrats
Bloomberg 20% of all voters 36% of Democrats
Warren 19% of all voters 36% of Democrats
The phenomena of pluralistic ignorance is going on here. Our opinions of what other believe do not correspond to our private reports of what we would do.
Well, Jack, here are Bernie's two problems:
ReplyDelete1. He didn't pass 50%, and the question remains, can he get the votes of those scattered D's who vote for candidates not his US?
2. And then, is his US bigger than The Don's US?
I had a depressing talk last night, at the parish festival, with a nurse who is noted for being smart -- she is a supervisor -- and compassionate with patients. She told me The Don is doing the right thing everywhere, including at the border, where she doesn't give a s*** what he has to do to frightened human beings to secure it, and that Americans will never vote for a socialist.
And, besides, the Russians are supporting Bernie.
Tom, I also have come across people like the nurse you were talking to. It's puzzling, it seems like they are compassionate to the people they meet face to face. It's people in abstract "those barbarian hordes at the border" that they can't seem to muster up any sympathy for.
DeleteAbout the Russians supporting Bernie, they're really supporting Trump. They'll support the Democratic candidate(s) that they figure will be easy for Trump to beat. Now it seems like the 'bot and troll traffic online is turning against Bernie. That ought to tell us something.
Katherine, I think the thing that bothered me about that conversation last night -- and is bothered me all day today -- is that she doesn't fit the stereotype. Shel never watches Fox, for example; she gets her news the same places we do. And Trump does not have her fooled. She knows he is a mendacious kleptomaniac with a few screws loose, BUT that is what she loves about him. I don't know where to even start with her.
DeleteMuch as I agree with Bernie's socialist ideas, I don't think he can beat Trump. Americans only flirt with socialism when the economy is bad. It *is* arguably bad for the Little People, and I expect when it crashes, it will do so spectacularly. But everyone thinks good times are a-comin'. And when the economy tanks, Trump will be on his way out of his second term and will blame someone else.
ReplyDeleteThe only way Trump will not get a second term is if his cheeseburgers catch up him. Last year's physical revealed he moved into the "obese" category, his cholesterol meds were hiked up, and he had ignored his diet and exercise suggestions. But his BP is lower than mine, he doesn't drink, and he has surrounded himself with soothing toadies.
The more "the media" tries to highlight Trump's weird mental state (see his graduation speech to some prisoners, a transcript of which was run in full in the WaPo, crazy sh*t from beginning to end), the more his supporters dig in to defend him as a man of the people.
He will have his eight years, make looming catastrophes worse, and the next president will be left trying to correct the damage.
In the long-term, though, I think this is the Republican Party's last gasp. Their own research has indicated they need to appeal to a more diverse and younger bloc of voters--the kind of people who hate Trump. Trump may be the catalyst for the party's destruction.
And I hope I live to see it.
Just a few thoughts. "Not Me, Us" is a good message if he can get it across. I notice on Facebook on some Democratic sites there are tons of negative messages about Bernie, supposedly from Democrats. Trouble is most of them have the characteristics of 'bot generated stuff. People need to fact-check and take everything that they see online with a grain of salt.
ReplyDeleteI think it is ironic that people are digging up sympathetic noises Bernie made about communism 40 years ago (which he has since distanced himself from), but Trump is allowing Russian interference in our process here and now.
There isn't a Democratic candidate on the list that the Trump slime machine won't try to trash if they even give a hint that they might make it to nomination. So avoiding a candidate with a history isn't viable. Everybody has a history, or weaknesses that can be exploited.
I have enough of a contrary streak that I have heard so much negative about Bernie that I actually starting to view him favorably.
Four more years of Donald the Idiot? Another SCOTUS appointment. Bye-bye Roe v Wade and same gender marriage rights. More right-wing, unqualified Federal judges appointed for life. Machinegun Mitch will be able to continue to withhold anything that the Democratic House sends to the Senate for a vote. So much for gun safety measures, voter rights protection, etc.
ReplyDeleteA small price to pay for the right for a democratic socialist who refuses to join the Democratic Party (ditto for Hizzoner da Mayuh of New Yawk).
And who the hell would want to take over as POTUS after 8 years of authoritarian mismanagement, misconduct and idiocy? But, maybe the Don will simply run again; his coterie of lemmings would like that and so indeed would Moscow Mitch!
All Things Considered tonight had a segment with a South Carolina Tea Partier who is encouraging Repubs to vote for Bernie in the primary, the idea being that he is the weakest Democratic candidate and that this will help Trump. (South Cahlina, like Michitucky, has an open primary.)
ReplyDeleteHow things appear in South Carolina, of course, may not reflect anything resembling the majority opinion of the nation generally, but the "Bernie helps Trump" meme may become a self-fulfilling prophecy if Repubs say it enough.
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ReplyDeleteMichael Sean Winters had this to say in NCR today:
ReplyDelete"I hope the Democratic nominee, whoever it is, recognizes the need to avoid sticking his or her finger in the eye of religious voters. He or she can respect, even while they do not share, the more traditional mores of us rural folk. But I also think the perceptions that the economy is going gangbusters and that Trump is responsible for that economic success are what is sustaining his overall approval rating in these swing states. Those perceptions may make other issues, all other issues, irrelevant."
"Here is my prediction: if the economy slows enough that people began to worry that next year might be worse than last and Trump's approval rating on the economy begins to drop, his overall approval rating could crater. If his approval rating craters, any Democrat can beat him. If it doesn't, no one can beat him. So, forget about trying to calibrate which candidate is most likely to defeat Trump. Vote for the person you think would make the best president."
Bill Clinton's dictum, "It's the economy, stupid!" apparently still holds. Sometimes I think people don't care about much else, if it doesn't personally affect them. Which is a depressing thought.
It is very possible that the world economy could tank due to the corona virus. Trump, however, might play that to his advantage. Secure borders and China as an enemy. Bringing manufacture back home. The threat is from foreigners.
ReplyDeleteWhile conventional wisdom and the historical record says that presidents are reelected in good times, it is also possible that some people with enough economic security (upper middle class) might go beyond their personal economic welfare and see problems with Trump. Of course there are many people who have been left out of the prosperity. It is certainly possible to appeal to both groups against Trump.
Bernie will be the nominee. It seems that the younger folks who idolize him like the idea of "free stuff" to the point that their logic is overridden by the shiny objects.
ReplyDeleteMy college education cost $32,000 dollars in current dollars. That same education today costs $170,000. So who got the free stuff?
ReplyDeleteI take courses at the local community college, and have great sympathy for young people. They really have to work hard to get ahead. I would not want to be in their shoes.
DeleteI was $3,000 in debt when I graduated with my bachelor's and $0 with my master's because of jobs, scholarships, and teaching assistantships. That's not even possible now.
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