Saturday, January 4, 2020

My Predictions for 2020

This is the time of year when pundits and others like to make predictions for the coming year.  I don't have psychic abilities, and I am not a particularly astute student of current events.  But that doesn't stop me from attempting my own predictions. I will share six of them here:


1.  The assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Suleimani won't provoke WWIII.  The act of throwing this M-80 into the world's biggest hornet's nest will instead cause a condition like a festering boil. It will drain resources and energy (and cost lives) that are needed elsewhere; just as a non-fatal infection drains a body's health and well-being.

2.  Nancy Pelosi will delay sending the Articles of Impeachment to the Senate until after Feb. 4, in the hopes that Trump will have a full-on meltdown on national television during the State of the Union address.  If he does, it will be a bad look, but won't make much difference to his base.  It might sway some who are on the fence. (This prediction is not original with me; if one of you made it, I apologize for not remembering who it was.)

3.  The Democratic nominee for president will be Joe Biden, with Cory Booker for a running mate. I am basing this prediction (sort of) on a book I am currently reading, "American Nations:  A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America", by Colin Woodard.  It doesn't mention the coming election, it was actually written in 2012. But the factors mentioned in the book will drive the nomination process in this direction.

4.  The Democratic candidate for president (whoever he or she is) will win the election in November by a comfortable margin. Because all hands will be on deck to defeat four more years of Trump.

5.  There will be some significant clean energy breakthroughs. One of them will be that a commercially viable fusion reactor model will be closer to possibility.
Another will be Heliogen, "... a clean energy company supported by Bill Gates and Patrick Soon-Shiong, which ….claimed it has achieved a breakthrough in concentrated solar energy that could replace the fossil fuels used in heavy-emissions processes such as making cement, steel, glass and petrochemicals."

6.  The perennial food fights will be on; the usual Paleo vs Keto vs veganism vs Peta vs you name it; a largely first world dispute. Because a healthy diet in much of the rest of the world basically has to answer two questions: Is it edible? and Do we have it?
But adding to the fractiousness this time will be the "plant-based diet" enthusiasm, which will feed into a regional, possibly Blue State, Red State fight. The farmers and ranchers of flyover country are resenting the nutrition gurus whom (they feel, perhaps justly) have no clue about agriculture. And whose derrieres have never sat on a tractor seat, and have never been in a barn at midnight assisting in a bovine birth. However both sides aren't paying enough attention to the fact that four mega-corporations control our food supply.

I am under no illusion that many or all of these predictions may turn out to be b.s. (that's bright sunshine!)
If anyone would like to add their own predictions, please feel free.

11 comments:

  1. I'm a terrible predictor.

    * I predict Biden will win the Democratic nomination, and will beat Trump in that national election

    * Iran will visit its retaliation for the assassination of Soleimani on Israel

    * The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl

    * The Chicago White Sox will win more games than the Chicago Cubs

    * Alex Trebek will step down as host of Jeopardy.

    * George Pell will not be exonerated by the Australian Supreme Court

    * Democrats will not win enough Senate seats to take control of the Senate

    * Ruth Bader Ginsburg will not be on the Supreme Court by the end of the year

    * Mike Pompeo will not be the Secretary of State by the end of the year

    * Francis will suffer a serious health setback

    * The trade war with China will thaw

    * India and Pakistan will fight a brief and indecisive war

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    1. Jim, your second prediction is interesting. Sort of like misdirected aggression with cats. They see an intruder cat in their yard through a window. They can't do anything about it, so they take it out on another cat in the household. Or an unwise human who tries to pick them up.
      Of course the Iranians want an excuse to hurt on Israel anyway.
      I hope the one about Francis doesn't happen. But I wish he would take it a little easier with the travel schedule.

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    2. Will they take it out on Israel? Mmmmm. Maybe. Perhaps they will fund more terrorist attacks in the west instead.

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    3. Happy to say, I'm off to a bad start on one of my predictions: saw this item in one of my morning newsletters:

      "Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg declared Wednesday that she is “cancer free” heading into 2020. "

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  2. 1. Trump exits the race because of a fatal or near fatal heart attack or stroke. (If it almost happened to Sanders it could happen to Trump especially with all the stress he faces).

    2. The Trump exit leaves the Republicans in chaos; their only solution is to stick with Pence.

    3. The Republicans lose across the board because they cannot mobilize their base in the absence of Trump.

    4. The Trump exit leaves the Democratic centralists in chaos; what do any of them have except they are better than Trump.

    5. Sanders and Warren unite with the notion that Bernie will retire after one term; they will spend the four years uniting the Democrats around a future; she will have eight years then as president to preside over all the nitty gritty policy issues.

    6. Sanders and Warren win because they are the only ones who have committed core supporters with enthusiasm in either party.

    7. About the end of the year it becomes apparent that as usual with the Republicans in charge the economy is tanking; so are foreign affairs. Sanders and Warren will have to meet all these economic and foreign affairs challenges in 2021.

    8. The American bishops after being charmed by Francis during the ad limina visits, and looking at the hand writing on the wall in appointments to the College of Cardinals as well as many new bishops here, and seeing the collapse of the Republican party, slowly begin to get behind Francis.

    9. Francis begins to slow down recognizing that he is over the hump of his administration. He cuts back on travel since he is really a home body. He focuses his efforts on synods (like the Amazon) held in Rome, and he puts in place his team at the Vatican to operate the show while he waits for Benedict to exit the stage. He hopes to exit after Benedict by retiring as Father Gorge to Argentina (no more Pope Emeriti in the Vatican). He makes it clear he wants retired Vatican officials not just Popes to move out of Rome.

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  3. You all are amazingly optimistic! I hope you are right..

    The only things that I see that might prevent his re-election are: he has a VERY serious health issue OR the economy tanks. Either are possible. The economy tanking is maybe slightly more probable.

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    1. I do believe in a God who puts down the mighty from their thrones.

      I agree the economy tanking is more probable, but I had to begin my predictions with some assumptions, so I decided to start with Trump and see what the consequences might be.

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  4. Hundreds of children separated from parents at the border will disappear for good into the disorganized and inadequate American foster system despite journalistic spotlights trying to figure out what happened.

    The Trump administration, in lieu of trying to overturn the ADA, will chip away at the program by pushing changes that raise eligibility for subsidies, ostensibly to "save money."

    Raises in the minimum wage, clean-energy and -environment initiatives, improvements in public education, and other "progressive" causes will take place in blue states, but not at the national level.

    We will continue to lose lives in Afghanistan and Iraq. Iran will have rising influence in Iraq. Turkey will move more deeply into Russian influence.

    There will be catastrophic weather-related events in the U.S. that will entrench climate-change deniers more firmly in their positions.

    There will be at least two major gun violence incidents resulting in a dozen or more deaths. This will not change gun laws or regulations.

    Michael Bloomberg will launch a third-party run at the presidency giving Trump a second term. Bloomberg will be unrepentant and start a centrist party that will strengthen the GOP as the party of rich white people and throw Democrats into confusion (because what doesn't?).

    The American public, exhausted by trio's first term and trying to make ends meet, will disengage further from participation in national affairs. This will result in some incredibly slick escapist TV.

    The number of local newspapers and civic engagement will continue to dwindle. The credibility of respected news sources will continue to be assailed.

    The faculty divide between low-paid humanities adjuncts and highly-paid STEM profs will widen. Humanities scholarship will continue to wither.

    Fewer students will go to college. The availability of training in skilled trades will vary considerably among states, and young people will begin to migrate accordingly.

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    1. trio's s/b Trump's. Prediction: auto-correct programs will get even dumber ...

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  5. Trump under stress? I guess playing all that golf will do it to him.

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    1. I see Trump more as someone who causes than receives stress.

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