"A new Marist poll testing the popularity of a bunch of progressive ideas leads to a slightly tedious truth: Some are popular and some are not popular, and there’s not much of a pattern determining which are which."
So which ideas are most popular? Read on to find out.
"...the old progressive standby of offering a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented residents of the United States polls very well. Massive investment in clean energy polls very well, but taxing dirty energy is much less popular. Free college is in between.
These findings have led to a bit of a feud on the left over where the Democratic base really falls ideologically. Kevin Drum, a veteran liberal blogger concluded that “liberal ideas are not as popular as you think.”
But Mike Casca, a former spokesperson for Keith Ellison, Bill de Blasio, and Bernie Sanders, exulted over the results.
“...The progressive agenda is popular, my friends” was his takeaway.
Democrats aren’t talking about a third conclusion: Most voters are not particularly attuned to factional debates, and they just like some ideas and not others. Rather than clinging to one or the other comprehensive agenda, Democrats might want to consider opening themselves up to the idea of just running on popular ideas."
"...Marist’s numbers, for reference, show overwhelming public support for a path to citizenship for the undocumented population, for an aggressive public option approach to universal health care, and for a “Green New Deal” of public investment in clean energy and efficient retrofits. Add that to a $15/hour minimum wage, throw in two high-polling gun control measures, legalize marijuana, and pay for the first two things with a wealth tax, and you’ve got a solidly popular vision for transforming America. "
"...But even though these ideas are popular and progressive, it doesn’t follow that the entire progressive agenda is popular. "
"Insisting on a pure single-payer solution, which many on the left has turned into a litmus test, doesn’t seem very popular. Opening up public sector health
"...I’m not really sure what to say about this, except that it underscores a classic political science finding: Most people are not very ideological in the way that people who like to yell about politics on the internet are. "
A couple of conclusions from the article:
One is that presidents can only get a limited number of things done.
Another is that "...The biggest problem Democrats face right now is a skewed electoral geography. They likely need to win the popular vote by 3 to 5 points to win the presidency."
The Vox article has a nice chart, laying out the findings on various issues. Conspicuously missing from the chart or the article are identity politics issues. Whether these issues are "outside the purview of the article" or are just things that voters aren't tuning into right now is not clear.
Somewhat future oriented...a dark horse candidate or as the reporter calls him, "a Goldilocks candidate": Senator Sherrod Brown. Brown would fall in the moderate Democratic camp...and he was the only 2016 Democratic winner in Ohio.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/23/us/politics/sherrod-brown-2020.html?searchResultPosition=1
Medicare-for-all: I don't see why people with health insurance from their jobs would vote to let the government take it away. Improving ACA and/or offering a public option seems a more likely winner.
I like Sherrod Brown, but didn't he officially drop out of the race? Of course he could drop back in, but would be a day late and a few million dollars short by now. I couldn't get past the paywall so I don't know who he was rating as the most likely candidate.
DeleteYes, I don't see people with employer health insurance going for Medicare for All. But I can see some who are struggling with the hamstrung ACA going for a public option. There is now only one ACA carrier in our state, Medica, and some unhappy customers.
He only said (or his wife did) that Biden won't win the nomination....
Delete"EL PASO, Tex. — As 20 Democrats debated on national television, Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio and his wife, the Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Connie Schultz, texted each other a running critique of the candidates.
This was not just another politically engaged couple talking about the 2020 race.
“You can’t help but think, ‘I could have done that better,’” Mr. Brown recalled in an interview.
“This is the first time I really thought, ‘I wish you were up there,’” Ms. Schultz told her husband. She had watched the debates in June at their home in Cleveland, while Mr. Brown, who considered but passed on a 2020 run, was in Washington, where the Senate was in session.
“A number of colleagues came up to me and said that ‘I wish you would have been up there,’” Mr. Brown said.
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He confessed that he was “wistful from time to time” about his choice not to enter the presidential primary, which he had looked at while fresh off his re-election in 2018 in a state President Trump carried. Many people besides senators continue to say they wish he were a candidate as well.
It suggests that despite the enormous field of 24 hopefuls, some Democrats still seek a Goldilocks candidate, someone perhaps like Mr. Brown, with a solid progressive record and a proven appeal to the Midwest working class."
What's missing is an effort to change the power structure which is the underlying source of ALL these problems. It's like buying new lamps and furniture and walls and doors and windows instead of doing something about the rhinoceros in the house. But how much can you do to convince a populace which can't even adopt the metric system? It's like getting a demented person to accept things that would make their lives 100X better.
ReplyDeleteIt's just easier to live with the rhinoceros than to actually admit that he's there!
DeletePeople who oppose Medicare-for-all will only oppose it until the heath coverage they think they are getting from their employer goes the way of the pensions they used to get from their employer. As pensions morphed into do-it-yourself IRAs, so employer-paid health insurance will morph into do-it-yourself-and-we-will-help-up-to-a-point, insurance. In many cases, co-pays and deductibles have already accomplished that, but if an employee hasn't had occasion to find out, he still thinks he has employer-paid insurance which he will defend past the deaths of his neighbors who don't have it until he has to face what it amounts to.
ReplyDeleteI can see a kind of gradual phase-in. People losing coverage or getting increasingly lousy coverage from their employer, opting in to the public option, until the public one becomes the norm.
DeleteOne thing that concerns me a bit is the "concierge medicine" movement. Which is basically medicine for rich people, who can afford to pay for the subscription, with a high deductible plan for back-up. Doctors like it, because they don't have to have a staff to deal with insurance claims. But doesn't do jack for the average family struggling to make ends meet.
Not sure which candidate made this point, but the idea is to make the public option so good that employees will prefer it to their work plan ... and then tell their employers to increase their pay commensurate with what employers had been paying for health benefits.
DeleteFirst time a candidate acknowledged that any public plan--partial or universal--is a BIG win for employers, and that employees have been paying for health care in terms of co-pays, deductibles, and wage stagnation.
"...and then tell their employers to increase their pay commensurate with what employers had been paying for health benefits." That's the part that's never gonna happen. Supposedly the employer I worked for was paying in the neighborhood of $12 K a year for the employee plus one health plan I had. It had pretty good coverage without too high a deductible and reasonable copays. They had another plan that they were trying to get people to move to, which had a high deductible with some cash (I think it was $1000) thrown into a medical savings account. It wasn't very popular except for young healthy single people. There was no way the employer was going to cough up the difference between that plan and the so-called "classic" plan.
DeleteThe bigger labor problem is that employers have figured out how to use contractors and part-timers to keep wages low and benefits nil.
DeleteThe ACA had the effect of encouraging employers, who were required to pay benefits for full-timers if they had a certain number of full-time employees.
I was a full-time adjunct professor before ACA, but did not receive benefits. I could, however, afford to pay for basic care out of pocket.
After the ACA, my course load was cut so the college didn't have to provide benefits. I was 59, and not in high demand elsewhere. So I made ends meet by applying for ACA coverage.
Through the ACA, the rest of you picked up the insurance my employer declined, and taxpayers have been subsidizing employee benefits ever since.
A data point I hadn't known about:
ReplyDeleteEndorsements by Democratic officials and party members of Democratic primary candidates is up at 538. Biden leads, and then in order Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, Sanders, Warren, O'Rourke, Buttigieg, Castro, etc. I suppose it indicates what inside-Democratic Party as seeing as likely winners...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/?ex_cid=rrpromo
I was surprised that Harris ranks so high and Warren so low. And apparently the insiders aren't on the Buttigieg bandwagon.
Delete"Conspicuously missing from the chart or the article are identity politics issues."
ReplyDeleteRight - identity politics is not so much a policy idea as a political strategy. I suppose identity politics are implicit in some of the ideas named, such as reparations, path to citizenship and healthcare for illegals.
It's becoming ever more clear that President Trump is going to base his re-election campaign on (white) identity politics. What a loathsome politician he is.