...the U.S. Congress.
Peter King, I've heard of; he's from Long Island. Richard Neal from Massachusetts, I've never heard of. One Republican and one Democrat, they are co-chairs of the Friends of Ireland caucus in Congress (never heard of it). It is said to have 54 members.
PM Johnson and Pres. Trump are said to be working on a UK-US trade deal when and if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. Johnson has made dropping the backstop between the Republic and Northern Ireland a condition of further talks with the EU. The EU says ppppppp...(not an exact quote).
The invaluable Guardian (no paywall) has the story, which declares that the U.S. population is one-tenth Irish-American! Even Nancy Pelosi: "The Democratic speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has said that a US-UK trade deal has no chance whatsoever of passing in Congress. Over the weekend, a committee of former members
of Congress and foreign policy officials said “all of Irish America
will support the Speaker right down the line.” Load your shamrocks!!
So...I'm a little slow. Johnson and the Brexit crowd want to deal with a renewal of the "troubles"? Because I don't see how that could be avoided with their jump-off-a-cliff hard Brexit with no plan.
ReplyDeleteMy husband is about 100% Irish-American, so I guess that makes me sort of Irish by marriage, not to mention some of my mom's ancestors who were Scots-Irish. So, glad to hear about the Irish American Caucus.
It's possible that Johnson & Co. don't care about the troubles, or don't think they will return if there is a hard border between north and south. Or they believe, as they keep saying, that there will be a "technological" solution off-site to maintain export/import controls between the Republic (still in the EU) and the North (not in the EU).
ReplyDeleteIt is possible that Johnson and the Tories would be happy to be rid of Northern Ireland, especially if they thought the "troubles" would once again pin down parts of the British army and bring violence to England itself.
Isn't Johnson's coalition as presently constituted, dependent on those 10 or so Ulster Unionist MPs? If that is still the case, then surely his government could literally depend on placating them?
DeleteMaybe, for them, remaining as part of the UK is more important than whatever happens between Ireland and Northern Ireland?
This BBC backstop-for-dummies page has a good explanation of what a backstop is (i.e. even I can mostly understand it), and sort of confirms my intuition regarding Unionist MPs. Politically, Northern Ireland itself is not united on backstop-related questions.
Deletehttps://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404
Northern Ireland voted to remain. The Unionist have supported kept May and Johnson in office with their ten votes. But they do not want a boundary in the Irish Sea separating them from England. Hence support for the Backstop.
DeleteRemain a member of the EU 440,707 55.78%
Leave the EU 349,442 44.22%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Northern_Ireland
Hmm. If the DUP wants a backstop, won't Johnson have a hard time forming a coalition? Wasn't he counting on the DUP members for that?
DeleteYes, he would have a hard time.
DeleteThat doesn't mean if push come to shove....
Pfft. Peter King is a colossal blowhard. Irish-Americans apparently inherited from their forebears an enhanced resistance to bubonic plague, a predisposition to alcoholism, and an overblown notion of their own importance.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction is that Johnson will go around talking loud about nothing until he runs out the clock and makes the UK an economic colony of Trumplandia.
This Congress does not have a great record on addressing the causes of human suffering and strife.
I don't see how Boris avoids throwing Northern Ireland under the Kenworth trucks, given how he has been talking. But once, not long ago, I couldn't see how Trump could avoid nuking North Korea, given how he talked then. I guess if you are a total autocrat and have a mushmouth on a leash to control the Senate, you can ignore anything you say.
ReplyDeleteI still don't see how he can hand the Irish a hard border again and get away with it. I am legitimately 1/8 Irish and 100% behind the Friends of Ireland Caucus on this one. If Trump tells me to go back to the hell hole I never came from, I just might.
Of course, Congress told Trump to stop shipping arms to Egypt, which is using them to make a s---hole out of poor Yemen. And Trump gave Congress the finger. Jared's solvency depends on the Crown Prince, and the Crown Prince wants more military hardware to kill more people. Not even someone with Dunning-Krueger syndrome can do anything about that.
DeleteAccording to the Guardian, Congress, and Neal is head of the relevant committee, will have to pass legislation for any trade treaty between U.S. and U.. If they don't pass it, Trump can't veto it! Unless....
ReplyDeleteThe idea that there is an Irish-American vote in the United States, to which congresspersons bow, is pretty laughable.
ReplyDeleteEven more laughable is that Congressional Republicans would defy Trump on this issue.
Most laughable of all is that House Republicans have any influence on anything or anyone whatsoever.
Democrats in the House won't hand Trump anything that smells of a victory. If Trump negotiates a trade deal with Britain after a hard Brexit, House Democrats will oppose it. If Trump persuades Johnson to a re-do of the Brexit/Remain popular vote - House Democrats will oppose that, too.
President Obama instituted both the Paris climate-change accords and the Iran nuclear deal without the consent of either the House or the Senate. Trump presumably could do the same regarding a UK trade deal.
Maybe the Irish-Americans need an IAPAC or EirePAC.
DeleteJim. Not that Congress is currently sitting on Trump's redraft of NAFTA. Paris and Iran deals were not trade agreements. That doesn't mean Trump will give executive action a try! But, like so much else he does, it will be unconstitutional.
ReplyDeleteSorry: NotE that Congress....
ReplyDelete