How to keep President Trump in office

CNN is reporting that a large group of former Justice Department officials - essentially, former federal prosecutors - have signed an open letter which offers the opinion that the obstruction of justice findings in the Mueller Report would be prosecutable, if the president was a private citizen.

"We believe strongly that, but for the OLC memo, the overwhelming weight of professional judgment would come down in favor of prosecution for the conduct outlined in the Mueller Report," the letter read.

The "OLC memo" is a legal opinion from the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel which outlines the Department's current policy regarding charging a sitting president with crimes.  The essence of that opinion, as I understand it (and I am not an attorney) is that a sitting president is immune from being prosecuted for the commission of various crimes.  An average private citizen like me would not enjoy that same immunity.

That memo would seem to be the kevlar that is repelling the political bullets being fired by the president's enemies.  It also provides President Trump with a compelling reason to run for re-election.

I've written before about this logic: let's assume, for the sake of conversation, that the president has committed crimes for which he would be liable, as a private citizen, for prosecution.  In that case, he has an overwhelming motive to cling to the presidency for as long as he possibly can.  And by implication, the best way to loosen his grip on the office is to give him to understand that there is no criminal prosecution risk to his leaving the Oval Office. 

Of all the ways that the president can become an ex-president, the two that, in my view, are least worth considering, at least through 2020, are impeachment and so-called "25th amendment remedies".  The latter hypothesizes that the president somehow be declared mentally unfit for the office.  There are many things that the president has done that I find not only objectionable but irrational (cf his plans to ramp up the trade war with China), but I can't in good conscience consider him to be so acutely mentally ill that he's not capable of being president.  I don't think he's crazier than the average citizen.

As for impeachment, I haven't seen any indication that the Republican-controlled Senate would convict.  A devastating Mueller Report might have changed that dynamic, but the Mueller Report didn't deliver those goods.  As things stand now, impeachment is a non-starter, unless/until Democrats can take control of the Senate, which couldn't happen until after the 2020 elections - at which time Trump may not be in the White House anymore (and even if he wins re-election while Democrats keep control of the House and take control of the Senate, conviction may not be a sure thing).

To be sure, pursuing even a futile impeachment effort now may motivate the Democratic base pointing toward the 2020 elections, so there may be an indirect political payoff - and in fact that seems to be the calculus of many Democrats in the House.  But it would also motivate Trump's base (in the opposite direction), which presumably would attenuate if not completely offset that Democratic advantage.  But for the short term, it seems certain that impeachment will not remove the president from the White House.

Another way for the president to step down would be for him to choose not to run for re-election.  I have to think that it's almost as aggravating for him to be president as it is for the rest of us to have him as president.  If various reports are to be believed, he didn't particularly wish to be president in the first place, and was as surprised as the country as a whole when the election returns poured in on that night in November 2016.  But with an ego like his, it's difficult to imagine him voluntarily choosing not to run again - even if he didn't have this threat of criminal prosecution hanging over his head.

Yet another way would be for the president to resign prior to the next election.  I've thought for some time that a bargain could be worked out between the president and the vice president: I'll resign if you promise to pardon me.  In some ways, that probably would be best for the country and the world (and perhaps the party, although the history with President Nixon leaves that open to question), because it is the most plausible way (short of death) for the president to leave office as soon as possible.  But the prime time for that would have been a 6-12 months ago, when 2020 candidates needed to start raising money.  And it isn't really in the president's character to retreat.

As mentioned above, it's possible that the president could die in office - not that any of us would actually hope for such a thing.  The president would be 74 in 2020, and 78 - the expected lifespan for American males - in 2024.  His health seems reasonably good.  Let's conclude that his death in office is not something to expect.

Finally, he could lose the 2020 election.  That seems, by far, the most plausible way for President Trump to become a former president.  I understand he does have one primary opponent, William Weld, the former governor of Massachusetts.  Weld will not take the GOP's nomination from Trump.  Against whom will Trump run in the 2020 general election?  Polls today suggest that the Democratic nomination is Joe Biden's to lose - although it is still very early, and Biden does not have a great track record in previous runs for the presidency.  Trump could beat Biden, just as he could beat Hillary Clinton.  The odds are against that happening, but it's not impossible.  I don't sense a lot of ardor for Biden - although, as mentioned, it's early.

For Democrats and others who genuinely believe that Trump should be prosecuted for obstruction of justice, beating Trump in 2020 would seem to be the best outcome.  A Democratic president, with a Democratic Attorney General or acting Attorney General leading the Justice Department, could go after Citizen Trump with little or no political backlash.  It seems that the key to this scenario is selecting a Democratic nominee who can beat President Trump in 2020.  It will be interesting to see what develops.