Friday, March 15, 2019

From Indispensable to Meh


“The challenges we face are the greatest in living memory. No one person can meet them on their own. Only this country can do that.” -- Beto O’Rourke announcing Thursday that he will be another one.

Oh? Beto must not have read Andrew J. Bacevich’s article “A World without the West” in the March 22 Commonweal. I’d give you a link but, as I have mentioned, Commonweal’s computer has deemed that I no longer technically exist. Bacevich’s point is that in the post-post-Cold War world the old “West,” led by the United States and promoting democratic values, is dead. Britain followed Bush II into Iraq and decided that was a terribly crumby idea. So Britain didn’t follow Obama into Syria, nor were there any other volunteers, which caused Obama to decide that maybe that would be a terribly crumby idea to enforce his own "red line."

 Bacevich didn’t say that, despite Trumptalk, Chinese hardware will run the G5 wireless internet world. But there’s that. And there’s the former Socialist slave states of Hungary and Poland, having had a whiff of democracy, drifting back to something more familiar, like strong men backed by the police and their big mouths. But Bacevich could have noted that.
 
 O’Rourke must have been writing his announcement anthem while a very strange news story was partially unfolding. Two Boeing 737 Max 8’s crashed within five months. Boeing said the plane is safe. U.S. crash investigators said the plane was safe enough, as far as they knew, to keep it flying. For the first time in history, the rest of the world ignored what the United States and its state-of-the-art crash experts were  saying about an airplane. The rest of the world grounded 737 Max 8's, but not us.
 Then the story went from odd to spooky.
 
 The Tweet-in-Chief opined on airplane safety in terms that proved that just because you are rich enough have your name on the tail of one doesn’t mean you know anything about planes. Followed by: The Tweet-in-Chief announced that the United States would join the rest of the world in grounding an airplane made in U.S.A. (with subcontractors everywhere there is a national airline).

 Usually, a decision like this is announced by the National Transportation Board. In fact, that was always the case before America became great again. But there is only one person that counts in this government  -- as in Hungary or Turkey. The NTSB, like so much else in our government these days, is headed by an acting administrator. He explained his reversal by saying the NTSB is “data-driven.” He said it eight or nine times. He also cited that cliche, “an abundance of caution.”

Caution seems to be another thing other countries have more of than the U.S.A. Which may be why they have stopped paying attention. When it’s an existential threat to a country to have a bunch of poor people fleeing from war and violence at its doorstep, that country is no longer capable of tackling great problems. Right about the time the U.S.A. started to blow its lead, Madeleine Albright called us “the indispensable nation.” It seems that we have been  dispensed with already.

14 comments:

  1. The charm and appeal of Beto escapes me entirely. His video announcement next to his wife, who clutched his hand and looked on in adoring silence, was nauseating on many levels. He lost to Cruz, he has less experience than other candidates, and he still goes by his childhood nickname. Biden and Bernie might be ancient, but they, and the rest of the field, blow this lightweight away.

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    1. My lawyer son, who contributed mightily to Beto's Senate campaign (and who wouldn't, considering the choice?) is not supporting him for president. Losing to Cruz by 3 percent in Texas may have astonished Texas media, but, heck, Trump won when he ran against Lyin' Ted.

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    2. Not going to get positively or negatively excited about any of them yet. There's too many, what is Beto, the 14th to declare? There'll be a big weeding out. I just hope the Ds won't be stuck with the dumbest one still standing, like the Rs were last time.

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    3. Salon has an interview.with Kathleen Hall Jamieson about message skewing on the political scene. Worth a read as we assess candidates: "Some people are more predisposed towards accuracy. When confronted with new information they are more likely to ask, "How do I know that? Is that correct?" To the extent that we, as individuals, feel and become more partisan in our identity, we are less likely to emphasize accuracy, to question the motivations about the information that we seek out and subsequently use."

      https://www.salon.com/2018/12/19/scholar-kathleen-hall-jamieson-very-strong-case-that-the-russians-swung-the-2016-election/

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  2. We're in the 39th year of the reign of "greed is good". Apparently even greed isn't good enough anymore. Greed moved as quickly as possible to transfer manufacturing capability to China. Greed is greed. There's nothing patriotic in it. In the meantime, the economy has been financialized to a 40% level. If America becomes great again, it won't be until the 22nd century as an underwater kingdom of genetically modified gill people. Just exaggerating.

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  3. Back to the story going from odd to spooky. It appears from preliminary examination that the possible cause of the two recent 737 Max 8 crashes is some new autopilot software, in which it erroneously tried to right a nosedive that wasn't happening. The pilot then tried to override the autopilot to right the loss of altitude that was now actually happening, and was not able to do so. The pilots had not been given additional training with the new software, because supposedly it wasn't necessary. I recall the old saying about "assume". I am an infrequent flyer and see no reason to change that. Even though Southwest was offering an introductory special of a $49 one way ticket from California to Hawaii. On second thought, a one way ticket to Hawaii doesn't sound like such a bad idea, with just about every road in Nebraska closed due to flooding.

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    1. Katherine, there's a TV series called "Mayday" now airing on the Weather Channel. Software changes which weren't shared with the pilots played a part in a couple of the episodes. Nowadays, there is no mechanical connection between the pilot and the control surfaces, just computers.

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    2. What made it eerier was that when the NSTB, when it me-tooed the whole world, issued the flight profiles of the two planes before their crashes, and the profiles looked distinctly similar. Of course, that took NTSB until Wednesday. But something very similar to the profiles was shown on NBC the day of, or the day after, the crash, based on satellite info. Now, that wasn't the data-driven black boxes the data-driven NTSB glories in, but they still didn't have THAT black box data when Trump, who knows noting about anything, made the technical decision for a country that can't make technical decisions anymore because we don't need stinkin' scientists or gummint bureaucrats telling us what to do.

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    3. Maybe we need to be cautious about endorsing driverless cars too quickly.

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    4. Trump's first call for an opinion about grounding the plane was not made to the FAA or the NTSB. He called the CEO of Boeing first.

      My husband, the aeronautical engineer, is livid about this, calling it one more example of trusting the fox to guard the hen house. He was also outraged before the election when he read the tale of the rapid bankruptcy of Trump's airline (one of his many bankruptcies). Trump bought the Eastern shuttle, to have an airline dedicated to encourage high rollers where he could have a captive audience to encourage patronizing his casinos in Atlantic City. He gave his passengers free chips for his casinos. He refitted the planes with expensive everything, and he even wanted marble sinks in the aircraft's bathrooms - believe it or not. He was told the fixtures he wanted would add too much weight and were too expensive. Later, to save money he wanted to reduce the number of pilots from three to two. He was unconcerned about the safety issues that would result from reducing the flight crew, but had to back down when he was confronted with the reality that the plane was designed for a crew of three and it was illegal to fly it without the required three.

      The whole typical-of-Trump's-ego story is in the article at the link.

      https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/05/27/donald-trump-airline-went-from-opulence-air-crash-landing/zEf1Er2Hok2dPTVVmZT6NP/story.html

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    5. I thought they were plowing ahead with driverless AI technology but now I'm not sure. It seems to work well until it catastrophically fails. Also, mixing humans and machines on the road is dangerous, I think. I think automated cars would work better if humans were totally out of the loop, because they could be centrally coordinated instead of reacting to random situations. But I'm not a big fan of AI putting lots of people out of work rapidly. I'd rather see rapid progress on fusion power.

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  4. Here's another scary airplane story: Pilots and Computers.

    "Pilots now spend more time learning these automated systems than practicing hands-on flying, so newer pilots are less comfortable with taking manual control when the computer steers them wrong, according to interviews with a dozen pilots and pilot instructors at major airlines and aviation universities around the world.

    “The automation in the aircraft, whether it’s a Boeing or an Airbus, has lulled us into a sense of security and safety,” said Kevin Hiatt, a former Delta Air Lines pilot who later ran flight safety for JetBlue. Pilots now rely on autopilot so often, “they become a systems operator rather than a stick-and-rudder pilot.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/14/business/automated-planes.html

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  5. For TB: Link to Bacevich in CWL (this leak of a link not authorized by proper authorities)

    https://www.commonwealmagazine.org/world-without-west

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  6. I read somewhere yesterday that Beto's initial fundraising was really big - $6 million +, apparently exceeding even Bernie Sanders's initial fundraising. Reportedly that number consisted of online donations from all 50 states. Good start. We'll see if it translates to votes.

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