Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has pulled off a majority victory in Mexico's presidential election, pushing the long-dominant PRI aside.
Lopez Obrador's vow to give preference to the poor sounds like something right out of the Pope Francis playbook. So does his willingness to confront government corruption and crime.
We must wish AMLO well in these endeavors, as the murder rate in Mexico has jumped by double digits in the past four years, and as Mexico is ceaselessly hectored by an American president who insists it pay for a border wall; who assails its people as rapists, drug pushers, and welfare-sucking louts; and who becomes enraged when companies move "our" jobs there.
This is sad and stupid, especially since Mexico has arguably had more cultural influence on the U.S. than our other nearest neighbor, Canada, and is a market with three times Canada's potential customers. More Americans want to vacation in Mexico than Canada, and more Americans retire to Mexico. In addition, Mexico strikes me as a natural partner to help the U.S. to address instabilities in Central America.
Some potential good news is that AMLO will have four more years in his term if Trump is voted out in 2020. This may usher in better relations. We can hope.
Yes, one can hope. Maybe this will break the trend of far right-leaning elections such as the recent one in Italy. If he is going to fight crime and corruption he will have a tough battle against the drug cartels.
ReplyDeleteSo do they call him Am-lo or do they say the letters individually?
DeleteLike the word "amlo."
DeleteAMLO is an interesting new player in the game. His Ignorance says there is a new NAFTA deal, but he won't sign it until after our midterms, and he wants some changes. If you look, our silly Ignorance was elected on the promise he could make deals. He would get rid of bad, old deals and make new ones. So?
ReplyDeleteHe pulled out of the Pacific Partnership and said he'd do one-on-one trade deals. Deals done: None.
He pulled out of the Climate accord and said he'd come back when it is fixed. Deals done: None.
He pulled out of the G-7. Deals done there: None.
He met with Kim Jung Un and said he made a deal to get rid of N. Korea's nuclear program. Deal done: The program continues. Kim never said there is a deal. Mike Pompeo is trying to "make it so," but there is no reason to think he can.
He said he would fix NAFTA. Deals done: None.
He said Congress would repeal and replace Obamacare. Deals done: None.
He said he would fix immigration: Deals done: None. But he has screwed up a lot of lives.
He said he would bring peace to the Middle East. Deals done: None, but now he is using attacks their health and welfare to screw up the lives of Palestinians to make them succumb to a Bibi Netanyahu diktat. I am so glad Americans "are not that kind of people."
In fact, a German commentator has dubbed Trump the "Withdrawer-in-Chief."
He hasn't made his first deal, but he still claims to be a great deal-maker. My advice to AMLO would be not to expect a deal.
I can predict this. His Ignorance will have a successful meeting with Vladimir Putin, a/k/a "Yes, Your Lord High Lender."
I should have added that His Ignorance did get a nice dinner in the Forbidden City, and another nice dinner in the Eiffel Tower. But neither Xi or Macron is as impressed with him as he was with his meals.
ReplyDeleteI think Trump is cutting lots of deals. Just not in public, and not ones that will benefit anybody but him.
ReplyDeleteI guess he can't be any worse than the last guy. Forgive my skepticism, but a leftist coming into power in Mexico with a promise to shake things up sounds like just the sort of disruption that will cause new waves of Mexican migrants to head north. With a better or different president, I wouldn't care too much. With this one, it just sounds like a perfect storm to multiply human suffering.
ReplyDeleteI don't know of a reason to expect that Trump will have a better relationship with Amlo than the last guy. The only possibility is if he turns out to be an authoritarian abuser of human rights. Trump seems to warm to that profile.
Lots of people are concerned about Lopez Obrador, though he seems to have done a pretty good job as mayor of Mexico by taking a pragmatic approach. He has at least some experience and a track-record.
DeleteI have not yet drawn a straight line from leftist to disruption to run on the border to a perfect storm of human misery.
Calderon seemed to be making headway with cartel violence, but Pena Nieto more or less abandoned those efforts. There is some speculation that reviving that program might be one of AMLO's goals to begin with.
The immediate goal, according to AMLO's operatives, is to control expectations. Which doesn't sound like an administration that's going to start shaking things up right from the beginning.
One chronic problem which remains for Mexico is that El Norte remains the greatest illegal drug customer im the world with the resultant immense cash flow to organized crime that prohibition engenders. It cannot help but engender corruption in Mexico. Another sorrow wielded by the rich country on the poor one. Maybe when stupid marijuana becomes legal, it'll help the situation. It's enough to make me go libertarian and say to the gringos, if you want to turn your brain into a high school science experiment, have at it. All this effort to deprive people if what they so obviously want. And when they're ready to save their remaining brain cells, they can turn to Medicare for All. I dunno. Best I can do.
DeleteWe would be fine ones to talk about disruptors wreaking disruption right now. However even if Amlo ran on a reform platform he's going to have a lot of heavy lifting to make a difference. From what I've been able to see (and I'm no expert) it pretty much is same o!d, same old, no matter who is in office there.
DeleteOne of AMLO's ideas to fight corruption was to pay law enforcement more to reduce temptations for bribes. This struck me as really naive. However, there may be more to the anti corruption scheme than just higher pay. Changing the "culture" of police and federales will be necessary. And something that our own law enforcement needs re race relations.
DeleteJean, I think there would definitely be less temptation to accept bribes if they were paid a decent living wage. I don't know, maybe they are already. But you are right that it is naive to think this alone would solve the problem, human greed being what it is. And the criminals' pockets being very deep.
DeleteWould I (we) love it, if Trump met his match in AMLO. Don't get enough sense of his personality to be able to tell. Any bio details? Was a prize fighter? Went to a Jesuit High School and was debating champ? Former navy Seal? Descendant of Montezuma?
ReplyDeleteDetractors keep comparing him to Hugo Chavez, but I see no evidence to support Doomsday predictions. Possibly these fears come from the biz sector who are critical of his pledge to review regulations friendly to the oil and gas industries.
DeleteAMLO worked in his parents store as a kid, got a degree in poli sci, worked with an organization to further the rights of indigenous people, and hired Rudy Giuliani to help craft a crime policy in Mexico City. He was popular as mayor.
He started the Moreno party as an alternative to PRI, which he blames for institutionalized corruption. Leans away from social liberals on abortion and gay marriage.
Remarried after the death of his first wife. Four kids.
WaPo bio here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/a-man-who-goes-by-amlo-is-the-favorite-to-win-mexicos-presidential-election/2018/06/28/de166da8-734c-11e8-bda1-18e53a448a14_story.html
Thanks for the bio...he seems to have a sense of humor. Can't hurt...
Delete"He launched several well-received social programs, providing pensions and subsidies to single mothers, disabled people and the elderly. He helped establish a retirement home for aging prostitutes; it was named after Xochiquetzal, an Aztec goddess. And he maintained an image of personal frugality, driving to work in an old Nissan every morning at 6."
He apparently named one of his sons Ernesto, after Che Guevara. People like to make something of that. But I can guarantee that had I had a son in my 20s, his middle name would have been Fidel. As it was, I had the Boy in my 40s, when I was less enthusiastic about revolutionary communism, so his middle name is a scary looking Welsh name.
DeleteEven though I still think Fidel is a pretty name.