Friday, April 14, 2017

Two Foreign Policy Hotspots

The good news is that Trump seems to be finally realizing that foreign policy isn't a walk in the park.  The bad news is that he is still behind on the learning curve. There may not be time for him to get up to speed fast enough to keep the US from having a situation blow up in our face. First on the list is, of course, Syria:  http://www.staradvertiser.com/2017/04/14/breaking-news/russia-iran-and-syria-issue-warning-to-u-s/  Predictably Russia, Iran, and Syria are upset with the Trump team; maybe Russia most of all.  And the Americans aren't the only ones they are peeved with.  Russia is reportedly furious with Assad, and some predict that the skids are already greased for him to be out when  the time is convenient:
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/russia-us-chemical-weapons-attack-assad-putin-tillerson.html  I am not under the illusion that the Russian commitment to Assad is anything but self-serving.  The question is, what is their ultimate end-game, besides asserting their sphere of influence?

The other hotspot is North Korea.  Trump has cooled his rhetoric about China's currency manipulation, hinting that their cooperation on the matter of N. Korea's increasingly aggressive stance regarding nuclear weapons is more important right now.  The Chinese have their own position on N. Korea: http://www.staradvertiser.com/2017/04/14/breaking-news/chinese-foreign-minister-no-winners-if-korea-war-breaks-out/  Of course North Korea is deflecting blame to the US: http://www.staradvertiser.com/2017/04/13/breaking-news/n-korean-official-blames-trump-for-regions-vicious-cycle/
We live in interesting times.

18 comments:

  1. It feels to me like he's trying to distract attention from the continuing investigation into his campaign's involvement with Russia by throwing his weight around militarily .... the missile strikes, the giant bomb, the aircraft carriers heading for N. Korea. Or perhaps it's all a plot by Trump to have N. Korea get rid of us liberals on the west coast for him.

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  2. I think Trump has as much chance of mastering foreign policy as he has of mastering superstring theory. He just doesn't have what it takes. And I think most of our friends and enemies know that it's all bluff and no substance.

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  3. Unfortunately you are probably right Stanley. I notice that he doesn't seem to know the difference between people who work for him, and foreign powers. He reportedly told Jerrod Kushner and Steve Bannon (who don't see eye to eye) to "...fix it, or I will!" And then proceeded to tell N. Korea and China the same thing.

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  4. That's right, Katherine. He seems to think he can delegate to countries like he delegates to underlings. Is it playing the Hitler card to say that, like Hitler, he was good at getting power but incompetent in using it? At least Hitler was "successful" for a while.

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  5. The support that Trump got for his attack on Syria makes it likely that he will try an attack on N. Korea. I wonder if the super-bomb in Afghanistan wasn't a test run for its possible use in N. Korea?

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  6. Is it possible that Kim Jong Un and Trump are equivalently egomaniacs, each in his own way of course. It is sobering to think of the Chinese leadership as the cool and rational heads in this confrontation. Is it because they have so much to lose? Or because Xi Jinping knows both of them and is appalled. The South Koreans, who have the most to lose, seem strangely quiet--at least publicly. Saw a short note yesterday that a Japanese naval vessel was joining the maneuvers!

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  7. The super bomb wasn't a nuke, so far no one has crossed that line (in recent history, at least). However I believe that if a super bomb or other significant ordnance is used in a first strike scenario against N. Korea, they would absolutely not hesitate to retaliate with nukes. It's almost a "make my day" kind of thing. I hope our military leaders will impress on Trump the importance of not taking the bait.

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  8. I used to think North Korea was mainly using the threat of nuclear capability as a fund raising device; the equivalent of giving the bank teller a note, "I have a bomb. Give me money." But increasingly they seem willing, actually eager, to use it to make a statement about their place in the world.

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  9. North Korea is not a threat to the US at this time and probably not for years. It is a threat to South Korea. Therefore, the silence from SK that Margaret Steinfels alludes to IS puzzling. Are they that much our client state? Or how can you win commenting when your ally's president is a dingbat?

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  10. I think S. Korea is trying like crazy to not p#ss their crazy neighbor off; hoping maybe he will stay busy chest-thumping to the Americans and Chinese.

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  11. South Korea does not have an elected president at the moment. They elected a woman who has fantasies and listened to an odd ball, so they had to start a move back toward sanity. Unfortunately, they are doing so at a fraught time. One gets in trouble electing fantasists who take the advice of odd balls. We'd never do that.

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  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  13. "Ex-CIA head: North Korea will be able to reach Seattle with nuke by end of Trump's first term" ... http://thehill.com/policy/defense/308050-hayden-north-korean-missiles-will-be-able-to-reach-seattle-in-5-years

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  14. And then there'll be,you drop a 25 kiloton fission bomb somewhere in the state of washington and we'll precisely drop a few 200 kiloton fission bombs on you. Why the actions as if there's an imminent threat?

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  15. I'm sorry. Fusion bombs. Have to turn off the autocorrect.

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  16. Sigh. What I mean is
    Little nukes = fission
    Big nukes = fusion

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  17. 60 years later another Korean war!!! My older cousin used to lend me his comics, "Blackhawk"? jet pilotry and assured me that Chicago was perfectly safe in the middle of the country. Yes, New York and San Francisco would go first. And Turkey perhaps about to become the sick man of Europe again. Does nothing ever get resolved....?

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  18. This is one time where I'm more than willing to defer to Los Angeles when it comes to being a target.

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