Watching the president's announcement last night, I was reassured to see his head swivel from one teleprompter to the other...no ad libbing! And doubly reassured that the announcement was taped...in case he went off message.
So how will this go? Your thoughts? Premonitions?
1.5 take:
- Johnathan Freedland at the Guardian: "Sometimes the right thing can be done by the wrong person. Donald Trump’s bombing of a Syrian airfield seems to belong in that category, though even that verdict depends on events yet to unfold." Freedland has a catalog of why Trump is the wrong person.
- Paul Pillar, LobeLog: "Syria and the Call of the Quagmire."
(but in agreement with Stanley Kopack's comment below). The author, Alastair Crooke is still waiting for confirmation that the chemical weapon was sarin and that the Syrian Air Force dropped it. He reports the contrary scenario (a chemical weapon held by the opposition or Nusra, instead of the conventional weapons the Syrian Ari Force expected). Presumably he does not buy the report of Turkish officials who declared it was sarin.
Probably a one time public relations event: message to Chinese, and North Koreans that he is tough; message that he has not been taken in by Putin; message that he can be for the downtrodden of the world.
ReplyDeleteI think it gives him more not less options for the future.
Long term strategic move? beyond self promotion? I doubt it.
Think of it as a tweet with high explosives.
ReplyDeleteNever would have happened if Assad had been quick to get out film of himself handing out candy to children or (even better) playing golf with someone important. But one-offs are one-offs. Gaddafi lasted 25 years after Reagan had him bombed. Assad has been fighting a civil war for six years. Yesterday was just one more violent day for Syrians.
ReplyDeleteIt may be bad for everybody if Trump notices that he just spent a millions adding to the noise level and decides to raise the stakes. That, of course, assumes an attention span he has not previously shown himself to have. If Ds were Rs, there would be a mighty wind over showing obeisance to Putin, practically asking permission to pull the trigger. But the Ds are not Rs.
Tom makes a good point about Gaddafi, though as I recall, Gaddafi did calm down a bit after Reagan blasted him (and killed a granddaughter, if I remember correctly.
ReplyDeleteAssad is a war criminal and needs to be held accountable in an international court.
The larger question is who puts Syria back together when he's gone? And at what cost?
I think Jack is right that Trump did it for PR. Agree with Jean that Assad is a war criminal and needs to be held accountable. Though with Trump's record of being critical of the UN, I don't see him pushing for help from an international court.
ReplyDeleteOne big question is where Russia stands in all this. All we know is that they were warned ahead of time, presumably to get any of their people out of the way, rather than to grant their blessing. The Russian PM warned that we were "one step away" from clashing with Russia. But apparently we didn't step over the line. Is Russia getting to the tipping point where they are ready to throw Assad under the bus, even though they have enabled him up to now?
I had thought Trump would be more of an isolationist. I was just listening to McCain talking about this. He seemed to think it was a good idea and that it was just the start of a more active role in the Syrian war. ... a result of Trump listening to his military advisors. He thought also that it was a message to China and N. Korea.
ReplyDeleteAs someone pointed out on MSNBC today (can't remember who): in this case, Trumplethinskin channeled Hillary's position.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/04/07/hours-before-airstrikes-hillary-clinton-called-for-bombing-syrian-airfields.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-people-hillary-clinton-idUSKBN179058
Ah yes, Hillary! Though I voted for her, I was looking forward to attacking her on her promised Syria policy. But now...I am left with Trumptydumpty to kick around.
DeleteSeventy-nine senators support the strike in Syria, and all 100 are on the record according to 538. Their earlier report had more than three-fourths of U.S. senators, including more than two dozen Democrats, have said that they support President Trump’s decision to strike.
ReplyDeleteHow easily all these Democrats and Republicans who have criticized Trump in many different ways now rally behind this gesture! Trump must be pleased with himself.
DeleteThis should concern us. It is one thing that Trump might divide and conquer, quite another that he might conquer by uniting.
And this from a someone whose staff seems to be in total disarray fighting among themselves and unable to pull things together.
DeleteIs it that everyone one wants desperately for him to succeed at something?
Tonight PBS Newshour had a good discussion of the bombing and the outlook with Andrew Bacevich, Sarah Sewall and John Allen.
ReplyDeleteBacevich was terrific. Asked all the right questions. Sewall was excellent. Give a look. Not about what's been done and why, but what does it really mean.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/will-trump-foreign-policy-evolve-u-s-strike-syria/
Margaret, thanks for the link! Yesterday was Fish Fry Friday, so I missed this. For me Bacevich sums it up: "Holy cow, we got a crazy guy."
ReplyDeleteTrump is impulsive and one act of an impulsive man does not = a policy or strategy, and if there is a strategy, it's largely being crafted by military people, without diplomatic input, pace Allen.
Sewall also articulated something I wondered: to what extent do we strengthen ISIS and radical factions if we weaken Assad?
In other words, who's setting up the dominoes and figuring out what's the chain reaction when we set them on a collision course?
Yes, Bacevich and Sewall were straightforward and sober. I particularly like Bacevich's hard-nosed unsmiling responses--and he didn't thank Judy for having him on!
DeleteToday's NYTimes (8/8) is drunk with "we bombed Syria" stories. Every reporter gets a piece of the event--a lot of repetition. Trump's achievement thus far is swamping all other news, for example, what did he and President Xi Jinping actually talk about. More hotels in China??? Or maybe in North Korea/
How was the Fish Fry? Cod?
Yeah, the Times sometimes does that with a story.
DeleteThe fish fry is a saga too long to relate here. It should be a reality TV show. The drama, the factions, the burned side dishes, the fights over the kremrole. But, in a nutshell, yeah, cod.
Fish Fry History: A perfect blog post on it's way to reality TV. Tell us more. Kremrole?
DeleteKremrole = Czech frame horns. One of the ladies marked them from scratch. I would end up mocking a lot of good folks if I used this as "material."
DeleteSet the story in Minnesota? After Fargo--the TV show--we know they long for fame.
DeleteUgh, I gotta watch my typos: kremrole = cream horns. Joanne makes (not marks) them from scratch.
Delete"Set the story in Minnesota?" Good heavens, we're a whole different deal than Minnesotans and Daks (people from the Dakotas)and Cheeseheads. Places in the Midwest are not interchangeable, even if we all do say, "OK, yah, you bet."