Early voting began yesterday in Ohio. Three Statistic graphics provide a good framework for thinking about the midterms.
This great graphic confirms my long held theory that voters vote against the greater of two evils. I formulated that view when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater. The pundits said that the Republican party would never recover. I simply saw them repudiating the Republican Party represented by Goldwater.
Essentially in the midterms we almost always repudiated the party in power as the greater of two evils. We have absorbed the need for checks and balance into our voting for political parties even when we are skeptical of both parties. Those who are not rigid party voters do the work for us.
If I were campaigning door to door I would carry copies of this post, tell people about my theory of voting, and ask for their thoughts, and then carefully listen to them.
As seen in presidential approval ratings, Obama was a more popular president, achieving 51 percent approval at the end of his term. Both Biden and Trump proved less popular, at annual average approval ratings between 39 percent and 44 percent.
Note that Republican maximized their affiliation during the Biden term at 46%, and that the Democratic affiliation has always been between 44 and 49%. That means the Democrats problem is their failure to mobilize their base, while Trump has done a good job of mobilizing the Republican base.
The affiliation measure for each party is a combination of those who affiliate with the party and those who lean. Essentially the Democratic party lost people during the Biden administration.
I think you are right that voters vote against the greater of two evils. Or rather what they perceive as the greater of two evils. The Republican line is that the Democrats are socialists (at least, maybe next door to communists) and want to force that agenda on everyone. That they can't be trusted to govern. And worst of all they are about "wokeism". Oogetty boogetty. So far that has worked like a charm.
ReplyDeleteI think the Democrats' best strategy is to throw their record back at them. All the pundits seem to be advising to focus on affordability. Fine. But they shouldn't stop with that. Throw the Iran war, masked goons in the streets, kidnapping people, and putting them in internment camps, voter suppression, corruption, and all the rest of the stuff the administration has done in broad daylight back at them. People want to know what the greater of two evils is? Here it is, in real time.