A few brief election thoughts

 As I write this on Thursday, October 29th, we are five days away from the 2026 mid-term election.  A few brief observations, and a plea.

• The US House seems virtually certain to flip to a Democratic majority, with Hakeem Jeffries the presumptive new Speaker.  Either party needs 218 seats to win a majority.  RealClearPolitics' poll-average method (the methodology is questionable for math purists, but it has the benefit of being easy to understand, and there may even be some intuitive logic to it) shows Democrats winning at least 226 seats, Republicans winning at least 182 seats, and 26 seats still considered toss-ups.
  
  
• The Senate outcome looks very close.  The RealClearPolitics average predicts the Democrats will have 47 seats, the Republicans will have 44, with nine races considered toss-ups.  Those nine races are:
  
  
• Alaska - Republican Dan Sullivan is the incumbent, with Democrat Mary Peltola leading narrowly in five of six October polls.
  
  
• Iowa - an open seat, with Republican Joni Ernst retiring.  The race features Democrat Josh Turek vs. Republican Ashley Hinson.  Hinson leads narrowly in six of nine October polls.
  
  
• Kansas - Republican Roger Marshall is the incumbent, running against Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor.  The polling over the last two months doesn't show a clear trend, although Hamilton was leading narrowly in the two most recent.
  
  
• Maine - Republican Susan Collins is the incumbent, running against Democrat Troy Jackson.  Jackson has led narrowly in six of eight October polls (with the other two reporting a tie), but Collins has a history of outperforming pre-election polls.
  
  
• Michigan - an open seat, with Democrat Gary Peters retiring.  The race features Democrat Abdul El-Sayed vs. Republican Mike Rogers.  El-Sayed has led in all nine October polls, including by 6 points or more in the three most recent.  This race may not really be a toss-up anymore.
  
  
• Ohio - Republican Jon Husted is the incubent, running against Democrat Sherrod Brown.  Brown leads, mostly by narrow margins, in six of eight October polls.
  
  
• South Carolina - Republican Darline Graham Cordone is the incumbent, running against Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews.  Graham Cordone leads in six of seven October polls, with the seventh a tie.
  
  
• Texas - an open seat, because Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Republican John Cornyn in the Republican primary.  The Democratic candidate is James Talarico.  Talarico has led in 10 of 14 October polls, with three listed as a tie and Paxton narrowly ahead in one.
  
  
• Nebraska - Republican Pete Ricketts is the incumbent, running against independent candidate Dan Osborn.  RealClearPolitics doesn't list any October polling, which may reflect polling organizations and the media not taking Osborn's independent candidacy sufficiently seriously.  The site lists three September polls, with Osborn slightly ahead in two of them.

My completely amateur guess is: Democrats will pick up four Senate seats (in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas), and will hold Michigan.  That will give Democrats a narrow "Fetterman-proof" 52-48 majority.

• Another prediction: it will take Alaska and Maine several days (at least) to count their ballots and announce a winner in their Senate races.  Control of the Senate may not be clear until the results of those two races are announced.
  
  
• I have seen several news stories about both parties sending many more poll watchers to voting locations on Tuesday than has been the case in the past.  The Trump Administration plans to send out Department of Justice attorneys as poll watchers.  
  
  
• Here is my plea: pray for peace on election day.  As you may recall, I am in a precinct voting location all day on every election day, and personally encounter a hundred or more (sometimes many more) voters each time.  Americans just want to peacefully exercise their democratic responsibility.  Let us pray that they can do it in peace.