There is a fourth way for the Trump presidency to end. We all know of the first three ways, death, impeachment with a conviction, or the 25th Amendment. The fourth way is resignation. I actually didn't think of this, it was James Carville who voiced the idea:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/elections/james-carville-predicts-donald-trump-will-resign-by-this-major-holiday/ar-AA25S3nr
We would all tend to think the same thing. Hell would freeze over before Trump would ever even consider resigning. He is in panic mode that a bunch of Republicans will lose in the midterms, and there might actually be enough votes in the Senate for impeachment with a conviction. Trump is in rising hot water with the Epstein files, and a lot of other things. SCOTUS handed him a get out of jail free card for things he does while in office. But there are a lot of priors that he is vulnerable for. Not to mention his family.
Trump could try to pardon himself while in office. But that would require Congress to be complicit, and it's getting less and less likely that they would be. However if he were to resign, JD Vance would be president. And he could pardon Trump, the same way Ford did Nixon. And he could pardon Trump's family members. Not that they all couldn't face civil lawsuits.
Carville gives the chances of a resignation at about 30%. Better than other options, but not that probable. Looking at the other options, Congress is unlikely to find enough spine to carry out an impeachment with a conviction. The 25th Amendment would be a really heavy lift.
But if Trump's main fear is ending up in jail after his term is over, resignation might appeal to him. He acts bored with the actual duties of the presidency. He can't stay awake for meetings, and prefers to stay up sh#tposting and making up AI stuff on Truth Social all night. He would rather be at Mar-a-Lago playing golf. An exit ramp might start to look attractive. Would justice be served? No. But it would be an end to an awful period. And yes, I know I'm wish-casting.
Wish- casting. Me too.
ReplyDeleteVance would go along because if he has to run for the office it seems less and less likely that he would win. If he’s the incumbent and “ends” the war with Iran, he would be in a stronger position in 28.
ReplyDeleteThe country will still be in horrid shape after Trump. The empire will be collapsing irregardless. But I am looking forward to a time when I don’t have to listen or read Trump’s output which is torturous.
ReplyDeletePolymarket and Kalshi give a 7-10 percent chance of Trump resigning or leaving office before 2027 by any means other than death. Kalshi gives a Trump departure by 2028 a 30 percent chance.
ReplyDeleteI enjoy making phantom wagers and keep track of "wins" in a little notebook, though taxes would eat a lot of the profits. If you want to make hard wagers, be apprised that Polymarket pays out in crypto only.
Carville was predicting it wouldn't happen until after the midterms, but that Trump would resign "by Easter" of '28, so in agreement with Kalshi that way.
DeleteI have no idea what Polymarket and Kaishi are. I guess I will google them. But I do know what crypto is. Not totally clueless about the current culture even though I hide from it as much as possible. I don’t think anything. But death will remove him from office before 2028:and I would give 50-50 odds to him leaving even then. But the pardon possibility from Vance might convince him to leave a bit earlier in order to protect his relatives. One thing Joe Biden did that set an awful precedent.
DeleteSorry for not explaining.
DeletePolymarket has been in the news because a very small number of bettors made a huge killing predicting the date Trump would bomb Iran. The nature of the wagers were so specific as to suggest inside info.
There are bills afoot that would ban members of Congress from betting on national events. But the bills would not stop their friends and proxys from placing wagers based on inside info.
Martha Stewart served jail time for insider trading. But that was so yesterday. Apparently it doesn't count if you're a member of the casino. I mean the government.
DeleteApparently there has also been massive insider stock trading including trump himself. I don’t read the stories only the headlines because at this point I don’t think anyone who can do something will. The watchdogs are all now trump sycophants. I can’t do anything that’s for sure.
DeleteI’m more focused on the possibility of the trumpists/MAGA stealing the upcoming elections through voter suppression techniques including intimidation by ICE at voting sites.. I don’t know if there is anything we ordinary folk can do about that except try to help register voters and get them to the polls.And watch with phone cameras ready. The voter suppression techniques of MAGA might have a few workarounds. I am thinking of volunteering in Virginia or even Pennsylvania (within a two hour drive) to drive people to the polls in purple areas. Can’t go to Georgia or other places where they removed voting centers in black areas to make it harder for bus dependent people to vote. You can’t even give them water bottles when standing in absurdly long lines in the very hot sun in Georgia I think. It’s a bit of a toss up state now and very important. If my husband wasn’t a big concern I would probably head to Georgia to help. Maryland is deep blue so there is little need here. Virginia is closer than Pennsylvania though and there is a hotly contested county that is an outer suburb of DC these days ( formerly all small farm communities ) just across the river, Loudon County - about an hour drive . It’s one of the whitest and wealthiest counties in the country, but also white farmers. It gentrified about 25 years ago with McMansions on 2-5 acre lots mixed with the still rural farming communities in the county. Loudon is pretty schizophrenic these days.
Yes, the election is a concern. I only mention Polymarket/Kalshi because it matched up with Katherine's original post.
DeleteUnfortunately my mind tends to go off topic and veer off on unrelated tangents. So I went from pondering corrupt betting and stock market activity to corrupt gerrymandering and voter suppression moves. Sigh
DeleteI have been busy gardening so I will make my comment on this post brief.
ReplyDeleteThe first Trump presidency ended with Covid and a million Americans dead. I have long been convinced the second presidency will end in an even greater disaster. Perhaps I have read too much of the prophetical literature of the Old Testament. We did not predict Covid, so I think the coming disaster will also be unpredictable. It is not worth my time to keep track of what is going on as we head toward the end of the second Trump administration.
Now that I am getting caught up on commenting, please see my extensive comments on Anne's fine post about Sister Joan.
Jim also had a great post on funerals. I plan to respond with a post on my own once I get caught upon on the gardening.
Jack, good to see you. I admire your perseverance in gardening.
DeleteI will read your comments on Anne's post on Sister Joan.