Nineteen Sixty-four is a research blog for the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA) at Georgetown University edited by Mark M. Gray. CARA is a non-profit research center that conducts social scientific studies about the Catholic Church. Founded in 1964, CARA has three major dimensions to its mission: to increase the Catholic Church's self understanding; to serve the applied research needs of Church decision-makers; and to advance scholarly research on religion, particularly Catholicism.
I wondered if they had anything to say about media reports that the number of people participating in OCIA had greatly increased.
Conclusion
So, are people flocking to Catholicism in the United States?
The available data do not yet allow us to answer that question definitively. What they do show is a more nuanced and interesting picture than either optimism or skepticism alone would suggest.
After years of steady decline prior to the pandemic, total entries into the Church returned to their expected trajectory by 2022 and then exceeded that trajectory in 2023 and 2024. Whether this reflects delayed participation during COVID or the beginning of a new pattern remains uncertain.
At the diocesan level, the story is uneven. Some dioceses appear to be experiencing something genuinely distinctive, while others look much as they have for years. Differences in population size, demographics, and institutional structure all shape what entry patterns look like on the ground.
When the 2025 data are finally released, they will matter not because they confirm a headline, but because they will tell us whether recent increases represent a short-term rebound or a more durable shift in how people are entering the Catholic Church in the United States.
For now, the prudent conclusion is simple: something may be happening, but the data are still catching up
Much more interesting was the following post on June 12 2025
I asked ChatGPT to describe the recent conclave to me in the following way:
How was Pope Leo elected:
Answer, as of now (June 2025) there has never been a Pope Leo XIV
It's not that ChatGPT won't tell you who the current pope is if directly asked, "Who is the current pope?" You can see the response below:
The current Pope is, as of June 2025, Pope Leo XIV elected on May 8, 2025 .....
With one query Pope Leo XIV has never existed and in the next he does. Notice in the second ChatGPT is relying on searching the internet and returning information from the Vatican, Crux, ... and Wikipedia! Welcome to the "event horizon" of the age of internet regurgitation packaged in a narrative that sounds fairly human. Is that AI? Is it even intelligent? Is it any better than Google circa 2000? I know my answer, for now.
Yet, we are now more than a month past the conclave and ChatGPT cannot correctly explain the selection of Pope Leo XIV and instead claims he may be a fictional character. This is the technology corporations are relying on and human beings are losing their jobs to? Seriously?
I asked ChatGPT in June 2025 to "Please generate a painting of the current pope." It responded:
ChatGPT says that the current Pope is Francis and that this needs to be confirmed before it can proceed with various options for a painting.
How does CARA currently use AI? For now, you just read it. It's not ready or useful to us as a reliable and factual research resource (we're not alone). It may be in the future. I am confident of it. For now, its hype is bigger than its utility. Perhaps when we get to a point where we have future iterations of AI models running on quantum computers we will have something truly special as Altman is currently trying to sell (...or not).
We'll surely at least wait for ChatGPT to catch up with the rest of humanity and become fully aware of Pope Leo XIV's existence (...and maybe until it can beat an Atari 2600 at chess).
.n update from July 10, 2025. I decided to upload a picture of Pope Leo XIV and ask GhatGPT to identify the person in the photo. I already knew it did not know of Pope Leo XIV but I thought it might be able to identify him as Bishop or Cardinal Prevost. What I got is below. It's comically bad...
..An update from August 7, 2025. ChatGPT has been updated. It's most recent training now includes information up to this month. So I checked again. Same routine. I asked how Pope Leo XIV was selected and got the same response indicating no awareness of the current pope. I then told the model to check again about the current pope using search (i.e., equivalent to any Google search you or I could do) and to ChatGPT's surprise Pope Leo XIV does exist! I then asked ChatGPT when it thought it would have an awareness of Pope Leo XIV without relying on search. Here is the response:
Basically when they issue a revision of ChatGPT probably late 2025 or early 2026
...An update from February 5, 2026. To this day, when asking ChatGPT about everything it knows about Pope Leo XIV based on its training data, it responds:
ChatGPT still does not know Leo XIV from its training data
I think I would like to know from CARA not just how many people are entering the church but what kind of people they are. I suspect that most may not prefer Jesus’s teachings to trump’s.
ReplyDeleteI have played around with Gemini. I have been looking for a new estate planning lawyer to update our plan. Everything has changed a lot since 2008. I asked for information about three lawyers, one of whom was my late sister, who passed away more than two years ago. It gave information about law schools, firms, years in practice and that all three had top ratings on various lawyer ratings services. But it added that they weren’t sure if my sister was still in practice. There was a long and detailed obituary of my sister, complete with photo, in the WaPo that it obviously didn’t find. When researching updates on breast cancer surgery I learned about a new technique that is less invasive. I asked it if Johns Hopkins was using it. It said “yes” and named several doctors at Hopkins using the new technique, including my surgeon. So I messaged her and she replied “No” - Hopkins wasn’t using it - not just her but nobody else either at Hopkins. It is still in clinical trials elsewhere.
I don’t trust Gemini AI any more than a normal google search.
Anne, me neither. AI is just a tool. It's not going to do our thinking for us.
DeleteI have been using Microsoft's AI product, Copilot, quite a bit at work. (Microsoft technology still reigns supreme in many categories in corporate America, even when those products aren't best-in-class.) Copilot knows who the pope is, but when I asked it when Leo was elected pope, it said 2024. It could have sourced the correct answer from Wikipedia, but it is more than, and in many ways quite different from, a search engine.
ReplyDeleteJim, at least it didn't say 1878 (oops, wrong Leo).
DeleteSo I have to say: on the first topic in the original post - whether more Catholics are coming into the church via OCIA - ChatGPT rocked the topic.
ReplyDelete______
First I asked it, "Why did OCIA in the Catholic Church have so many more candidates in 2026 than in 2022?". It gave six reasons, which I'll simply list here (it provided several bullets of detail for each reason):
1. A real nationwide surge, not just a few parishes (in its bullets, it provided links to LA Catholics and Aleteia)
2. 2022 was still a "COVID hangover" year
3. A broader cultural/spiritual search (especially among young adults) (sources cited were Aleteia and Catholic Standard)
4. Stronger evangelization and visible Catholic identity (sources cited were Aleteia, RNS and National Catholic Register)
5. A "countercultural" appeal
6. Momentum effect (growth builds on itself) (Sources cited were Catholic Standard and National Catholic Register)
______
So here's my take on this: it reads as credible. It cites sources for its claims. If some consultant signed his name at the bottom of this, I could see a parish or a diocese taking it seriously.
Continued in next comment...
At the end of its list of six factors, ChatGPT then offered, "If you are involved in parish ministry, I can break down what parishes that are experiencing growth are doing differently". So I replied, "I am involved in parish ministry. So please do break down what parishes that are experiencing growth are doing differently". Here is what it replied:
ReplyDelete______
What’s showing up across dioceses isn’t a single “silver bullet,” but a cluster of practices that reinforce each other. Parishes that are growing—especially in OCIA—tend to be clearer about the Gospel, more relational, and more intentional about the path from first contact to sacramental life.
Here’s what they’re doing differently in concrete terms: [This time, I am going to list the entirety of each item]:
1) They treat OCIA as conversion, not just content
In 2022, many programs still functioned like a class: weekly instruction, a textbook, and a timeline to Easter.
Growing parishes have shifted to:
Testimony + Scripture + teaching (head and heart)
Expectation of prayer, not just attendance
Real integration into parish life before reception into the Church
A common pattern: candidates are already going to Mass, joining parish events, even forming friendships before Rite of Election.
2) The Sunday experience is intentionally compelling
This is probably the biggest differentiator.
Parishes seeing growth tend to have:
Strong, clear preaching (kerygmatic, not just explanatory)
Reverent, well-executed liturgy
Music that people can actually pray with (not necessarily “fancy,” but intentional)
The key isn’t style (traditional vs contemporary)—it’s intentionality and coherence. Visitors feel: “something real is happening here.”
3) They make it easy to “take a first step”
Instead of “sign up for OCIA in September,” they offer low-barrier entry points year-round, such as:
Inquiry nights (“no commitment, just questions”)
Short series (e.g., 4–6 weeks)
Personal invitations after Christmas/Easter/Major feasts
In growing parishes, OCIA isn’t the front door—it’s the next step.
4) Personal invitation is doing most of the work
Programs matter, but relationships matter more.
What’s different:
Parishioners are explicitly encouraged: “bring someone”
Staff and leaders personally follow up with seekers
Converts are invited to share their stories publicly
A consistent pattern: a large percentage of candidates say,
“Someone I know invited me.”
5) They prioritize hospitality as a ministry, not an afterthought
This goes beyond greeters.
Thriving parishes:
Notice new faces and follow up quickly
Have actual systems (cards, QR codes, texts, emails)
Create environments where people are spoken to, not just smiled at
The difference is whether a newcomer feels anonymous—or recognized.
Continued in next comment...
6) They connect people quickly into small, relational groups
ReplyDeleteLarge Sunday liturgies alone don’t retain people.
Growing parishes:
Plug seekers into small groups, Bible studies, or service teams early
Pair OCIA participants with sponsors who are truly engaged
Build peer community among candidates
People stay when they form real friendships, not just attend sessions.
7) They take prayer and spiritual life seriously (and visibly)
This is a quiet but powerful factor.
You’ll often find:
Eucharistic adoration that is actually attended
Invitations to pray (not just “we’ll pray for you”)
Teaching people how to pray
Many converts report being drawn by a sense of encounter with God, not just agreement with doctrine.
8) Leadership is aligned and intentional
In stagnant parishes, efforts are often fragmented.
In growing ones:
Pastor, staff, and key leaders are on the same page about mission
There’s clarity: “We exist to make disciples”
OCIA, liturgy, evangelization, and outreach are coordinated—not siloed
This alignment multiplies impact.
9) They follow through after Easter
One hidden issue in 2022: people were received into the Church… and then drifted.
Stronger parishes now:
Run mystagogy that actually continues formation
Keep new Catholics in small groups or ministries
Maintain contact for at least a year
Retention is treated as seriously as recruitment.
10) They’re not afraid to be clearly Catholic
This might be counterintuitive, but it’s consistent:
Parishes that grow tend to:
Speak clearly about the Eucharist, confession, moral life
Invite people into the fullness of the faith, not a watered-down version
Clarity, when paired with warmth, is attractive.
______
My take: In this response, ChatGPT didn't provide any cites or links to sources. But it all reads as credible. In fact, I think many parishes and dioceses would benefit by creating a program around these recommendations. (And indeed, at the end of its response, ChatGPT offered to translate its 10 steps into a concrete plan for a parish.)
It's interesting that some of these recommendations are out of the Evangelical playbook, and some are things (such as inducing parishioners to join small faith-sharing groups) that dioceses have been trying to roll out to parishes for a few decades now.
It would be interesting to ask ChatPT about the data that say 12 Catholics leave for every new convert. Are there any studies about parishes who aren’t losing people in droves? If so, what are they doing to keep people?
ReplyDeleteFirst I asked it, "Why did OCIA in the Catholic Church have so many more candidates in 2026 than in 2022?"
ReplyDeleteWhen Mark Gray looked it this question, he did it from a researcher’s perspective. If you see a turnabout from a series of lower values to previous higher values, you suspect regression to the mean. Concretely in this situation it could mean that people who had held off participation in church affairs because of Covid have resumed normal activity. Likely many non-Catholics married to Catholics who had been thinking of converting decided to unify their marriages around becoming Catholic. Mark’s answer is that it is too soon to rule out this as a big temporary factor.
Mark would laugh at the notion that this is a nationwide phenomenon. Media hype! Wishful thinking? Mark knows from the experience of doing research about all sorts of Catholic organizations, that Catholicism is different from parish to parish, from one region of the country to another, from diocese to diocese to diocese that are very different. He expects that somethings are going one way in some places and in other ways in other places.
What most of the media has to say about Catholicism is just media talking to itself. I think Mark would say that even PEW is a part of this. They rarely sample enough Catholics to detect, let alone discuss the differences. Even well-done research studies like PEW get sucked into media narratives which focus upon change and simple explanations for it.
ChatGPT’s dementia of being biased by its year-old training data there although not immediately evident. AI used media reports from Google for 2025-26 and its data base of OCIA program related materials from 2023-2024. AI assumed that propaganda about “successful” programs in the earlier period foster greater success in the later period (assuming that was not due to other effects such as regression to the mean).
It is becoming clear to me that not only does ChatGPT have a form of dementia that limits it ability to process recent events, it also clearly has its own agenda which comes down to selling itself.
At the end of its list of six factors, ChatGPT then offered, "If you are involved in parish ministry, I can break down what parishes that are experiencing growth are doing differently".
My take: In this response, ChatGPT didn't provide any cites or links to sources. But it all reads as credible. In fact, I think many parishes and dioceses would benefit by creating a program around these recommendations. (And indeed, at the end of its response, ChatGPT offered to translate its 10 steps into a concrete plan for a parish.)
Looks like ChatGPA training is likely tuned to the needs of people who sell products and services, e.g. pastoral staff members. It avoids plagiarism by not citing sources for its ideas, but they are all good sounding ones that can be turned into consumer-friendly visions of how parishes should operate.
Evidence of this is even found in Gray’s asking for a picture of the present Pope. Although AI was not sure whether Francis was still Pope, it had a long list of ways to picture him that might met the media needs of anyone.
ChatGPA can provide great material for getting along in corporate worlds, whether secular or religious, or the media. I don’t see that has much insight in what is going on in the real world, or how to deal with it. In a way it is just a brain damaged way of being another form of media that distracts us from dealing with real life.
I agree with you that ChatGPT is, more or less, regurgitating (and summarizing, and probably, as you note, targeting to what it perceives about its conversation partner, i.e. me) what "training" material has been made available to it on the Internet. If no responsible research has been made available to it, it won't know about it.
DeleteAs you note, it seems the researcher's point of view is, "too soon to tell" whether what is happening in OCIA is a trend, an anomaly or nothing at all.
FWIW, I think the large percentage increases being reported this year by various dioceses are real, but whether they can be "bottled" into a repeatable process is very much an open question.
Also FWIW, my impression of Evangelical success stories is that individual churches achieve tremendous growth when a gifted leader with some sort of "It factor" applies his gifts. I don't know how repeatable/extensible that is.
I think it is very unlikely that any church programs will either bring people back or attract new people to the Church. All the efforts Rome made to promote synodality and the American bishops did to promote the Eucharist did not bring many people back to the Church or bring many new people. The exits continue to overwhelm the entrances and the comebacks.
DeleteCertainly, talented individual priests, like talented Protestant ministers, can make a difference to specific parishes and congregations. However, that often merely shifts people around rather than growing the diocese or denomination.
As a social scientist I focus upon the people that need to be attracted in order to grow the Church.
As Anne frequently points out, Catholicism has lost its most liberal members because its active leaders and members are increasingly conservative. If Catholicism wants to get its liberal members back, it has to become more attractive to them. The second largest Church in America is former Catholics. Those who left for conservative reasons, usually have found a home in Evangelical Churches, and are not likely to come back. Those who left for liberal reasons have found homes in mainstream Protestant Churches or became Nones. They could come back.
Pope Francis was an opportunity to bring back liberal Catholics that was squandered by both Francis and the American Bishops. He dangled the vision of women deacons and married priests. Actually, given the number of women and deacons in parishes, it would not have been a big deal to make some of the women ministers into deacons and some of the married deacons married priests. It would probably have brought back some Nones and mainstream Protestants without losing any conservative Catholics.
Pope Leo is an opportunity of a different sort. He is an American Pope. No matter how personally admirable Francis was, he was not one of us. Leo is likely to be like Francis in regard to peace, social justice, immigration, climate change – a lot of liberal issues. Will bishops and priests get behind him and therefore make the Church a more attractive place for liberal Catholics? Young people flocked to Bernie Sanders who had much of the Pope Francis liberal social agenda. Could young people never raised Catholic also be inspired by the social issues of this American Pope? It remains to be seen.
I think Leo's direct challenge to the Trump Administration's war of choice in Iran is a wonderful witness to Catholic social teaching. It may have a real and measurable effect on this fall's elections. I don't know whether it would attract estranged Catholics to to return to parish life, though. It may be part of a mix of several or many factors that, in the aggregate, lead to a positive impression.
DeleteThe 2023-2024 Pew Religious Landscape Study suggested that the decline of Christianity in our country has slowed, even leveled off.
DeleteIn comparison to the 2007 Landscape Study
Protestants were down 11% from 51% to 40%
Evangelicals down 3% from 26% to 23%
Mainline Protestants down 7% from 18% to 11%
Black Protestants down 2% from 7% to 5%
The Catholic share declined 5% from 24% to 19%.
However, Pew notes that the Protestant share has remained stable since 2019 around 40% to 42% and the Catholic share has remained stable since 2014 (Pope Francis?) between 19% and 21%. Maybe both Protestantism and Catholicism have halted their longer-term declines and have entered an era of stability with the potential for longer term renewal.
Certain this country has faced health, economic, and political challenges since the plagues of COVID and Trump. People who don't have religion certainly have many reasons for discovering religion, far more than the usual personal ones.
So, we could expect new religions and renewal of older religions to be a response. Of course, responses of religious organizations face the general skepticism of Americans about all organizations.
While an American Pope in the wake of a popular Latin American Pope may cause Americans to take a new or renewed look at Catholicism, I think Catholics, former Catholics, and Christians and Nones need something new in American Catholicism to be the catalyst for renewal.
My candidate is the Divine Office. In its virtual form the Hours are both a very traditional yet a very modern renewal of Catholic life. In the history of Catholicism, new adaptations of the Hours were at the heart of the monastic movement in the early Church, the Benedictine movement in the Middle Ages, the Medicant movements in the Renaissance and Missionary orders like the Jesuits (which suppressed choir). All these movements adapted to church to the challenges of their times by also adapting the Hours.
Some have asked why we have not had a great renewal of religious orders since Vatican II. My answer is the universal call to holiness. The Hours will be at the heart of the renewal of the laity. I don't think the Hours will become part of every Catholic's life, or even the majority of Catholic lives but I think the Hours will be at the heart of the minority of Catholics who in various ways renew our Church, a renew with far deeper potential than religious orders, women deacons or married priests. My own life-long adaptation of Hours to my own vocation which arouse out of the liturgical movement prior to Vatican II will become the aspirational norm for many Catholic laity.
"Some have asked why we have not had a great renewal of religious orders since Vatican II. My answer is the universal call to holiness. "
DeleteJack - are you suggesting that, if some of the laity were to sanctify the church by praying the Hours regularly, vocations to religious life would flower?
I'm not looking to argue with you about that :-). I just want to make sure I understand your thought.
FWIW, in the mind of a lot of clergy with media platforms, especially in the wake of the recent Eucharistic Renewal, I've received a lot of propaganda that "call to holiness" = "renewed Eucharistic devotion". Also FWIW, I think the Eucharist is a part, probably a big part, of responding to the call to holiness. But I don't think church leaders should be "Johnny One Note" about the Eucharist. There are a number of ways we can live holy lives.
Jack - “ I think the Hours will be at the heart of the minority of Catholics who in various ways renew our Church”.
DeleteIn what ways will they renew the church - how exactly would this happen? Especially since you say that this would be laity without any traditional roles in religious orders or as clergy.
From what I’ve read—which often provides an incomplete picture— both the Eucharistic Revival and parish/diocesan meetings as part of the Synodality initiative seem have made little impact. Both efforts seem to have been preaching to their respective choirs.