There are many articles out there summing up the first 100 days of Trump 2.0. Different areas of the country will be impacted in different sectors. Red states are more dependent on Federal funds than blue states. I read this morning that 50% of government operations in West Virginia are supported by federal grants (WVA went for trump by 70%), some of which have already been canceled, blowing a huge hole in the state budget. I suspect that WVA is not alone in this situation.
. The DC area is ground zero in many ways. We are less dependent on programs like Medicaid than some places, especially in Maryland, which is a very blue state. But our very blue county in this very blue state has many federal employees, and many more who work for private sector companies on government contracts. Neither my husband nor I worked directly for the government, but all of our jobs were with companies with government funded contracts. Our county government has set up a new office to help the suddenly unemployed residents. When the first chops were made, a neighbor who sells real estate - spring is the busiest market here- lost four clients in one week . I’ve already talked about our French “daughter” who worked on a USAID project. Her husband is retiring in May from the IMF - not popular with Trump, especially since the report they just released predicts a global recession caused by Trump’s policies if he doesn’t change course. They are selling their home in DC and will be living in their vacation cabin in Maine. She is a US citizen, but he is not - he’s German. She is very worried about what might happen if they go overseas and return - will he be stopped? Interrogated? Forced to let them go through his phone and computer? They also worry that things are getting so bad here that they may give up their lives, friendships and family here ( her husband has two adult sons) and move back to Europe.
Many American travelers, including our eldest son and his family, currently in Japan for spring break, are scrubbing their devices, buying second devices etc in case they are stopped at US immigration when returning from travel. None of our sons’ wives are native born American citizens. O e is on a green card only.
One of our youngest son’s closest friends is in limbo - he worked at Voice of America and is on paid leave, waiting to see if trump will heed the order to reopen VOA. Unlikely - they have been ordered by more than one Judge to reopen USAID because the law requires closing it to be approved by Congress. But they don’t bother with legal or Constitutional niceties. Our niece works for EPA - environment is not a priority of this group, so she’s holding her breath. So far her group hasn’t been eliminated.
Today’s news brought another shock to our little DC area world of friends and family. The sister of a very close friend is the judge in Wisconsin who was arrested because she helped an immigrant and his lawyer slip out of the courthouse where ICE agents had come to arrest him. The AG had the hypocrisy to say that Hannah should know that “ nobody is above the law”. Nobody? What about trump and many of his minions? My friend’s sister, the Judge, is a woman who has devoted much of her career working to help the “ least of these” - including as a pro bono lawyer. She is a devout Irish Catholic who was Executive Director for Catholic Charities at one time. I’ve met her several times when she visited here.
I don’t get out a lot, but when do, I hear the stories. But they are DC stories. What are you heating in your communities? I read that China has just canceled an order for 12,000 metric tons of pork. Are there a lot of pork producers in Nebraska? I’m sure that’s only a small amount of what will be many losses for farmers. We taxpayers will have to bail them out again, just as we did to the $ billions during trumps tariff war in his first term. What are people saying in the cornfields in Michigan? Near the Canadian border in Michigan and Ohio? In the suburbs of Chicago? In the Poconos?
Our local city glossy magazine has a report - “100 Days of Chaos”. It definitely feels like chaos here. How about where you are?
It's hard to point yet to drastic change where I live, but it seems likely that the effects will accumulate gradually rather than all at once. I know our state and local government officials are worried about federal funds drying up, but that appears to be more of a near-term-future worry than an immediate crisis. Part of the complexity appears to be that judges keep ruling against the administration; in those cases, it's difficult to discern whether program funding is impacted or not.
ReplyDeleteTrump's approval ratings are slipping. Most of what he is doing, from tariffs to DOGE to Ukraine, seems unpopular.
I don't get out much or read the local newspapers. However I did notice a billboard sign that said: "Tariffs are taxes."
ReplyDeleteThat was near Fairport Harbor where freighters come and go. Most of the trade is to Fairport from other places, mostly American with limestone and other building materials.
However some of the trade is Morton salt, much of which does to Canada in late summer, presumably for their roads.
Much of the shipping is done in Canadian ships. Some of those ships were built in China. My understanding is that Trump has placed a high tariff on stuff shipped in Canadian ships built in China in order to encourage building ships in America.
I don't know how all this works. Does that mean that Canadian ships carrying stone from American ports to Fairport have to pay a tariff?
For me personally, tariffs will likely affect price and availability of meds and food, and funding cuts and grant elimination will affect free interlibrary loan at my rural library. I have written my letters and talked to the library director about fundraising efforts.
ReplyDeleteTariffs will also affect farmers here, and some if them were at the last protest in Lansing. Small businesses here depend on farm prosperity, so in our town of 1,700, the businesses that struggle to stay afloat--cafe, barber shop, grocery store, and gas station--will likely go under. The milk plant, the major employer, may also experience cutbacks.
Long-term, expansion of executive powers thru EOs and erosion of due process and human rights concern me. My late cousin's wife is a legal resident, but, as in the first Trump administration, she will not be visiting family in Mexico and risk being barred from re-entering. Her family is wealthy so they can visit here. I also have concerns for gay and trans family members. Not much I can do except keep in touch with them for whatever that type of support from your ailing old auntie is worth.
I do have a general feeling of hopelessness. Worrying and wailing does no good. But the influence I have to do any good is about nil. And I have little confidence in the basic decency of Americans generally. Too many people slipping thru the cracks and nobody cares.
In this time of great difficulties for federal workers, there has been a positive development for us retirees from state government.
ReplyDeleteSometime around December, Congress removed the penalty on the Social Security benefits for those of us that receive state government pensions. While most of my life was spent outside the social security system, I did have social security credit for the low salary years I worked before that.
However, those social security benefits were reduced because I worked in the state pension system.
In January, I was surprised to get paid retroactively for all of 2024 with the increase of social security due to removal of the penalty. It is only a little more than five hundred dollars a month, but that is six thousand dollars a year.
If I had gotten that for the last twenty years that would have been over a hundred thousand dollars extra to spend.
Betty and I have decided to downsize our vegetable gardening efforts. I am going to put the extra money into hiring people to help me manage my property, mostly low-income people who need the money.
It seems to be a slow moving train wreck here. Mostly I haven't seen too much damage yet. But yes, we definitely have pork producers here. Including our governor, who is a big time pork producer. And who employs a lot of immigrants. He is trying to walk the line between having to k iss the MAGA ring, and dealing with reality on the ground.
ReplyDeleteI haven't heard anything about ICE raids here yet. I would say our neighborhood is probably 70% immigrants.
The company I used to work for has a lot of government contracts. We'll see what happens with that as time goes on. I think they are mainly defense department.
I was sorry to see that Congressman Don Bacon is thinking of not running in 2026. He is one of the few Republican house members who has spoken out against some Trump policies. He was a Brigadier General. Would have been a lot more qualified than Hegeseth for SecDef. Bacon is 61, I'm not sure why he wants to call it quits. But I know his family got threats previously.
Bacon is not our district. I have emailed our representative and senators several times, about Elon Musk and Doge, and more recently about people getting kidnapped and put in the El Salvador concentration camp.
My friends still in the government, of course, are awaiting their fate. No one I know has taken The Deal. My friend M just retired without The Deal because resigning, waiting a few months and then retiring sounds risky when dealing with the welcher-in-chief. Others close to retirement did go for the bait. Locally, I don’t know if anything hit yet. As long as I get my pension, I’m OK . But who knows?
ReplyDeleteCertainly the most direct impact of the first 100 days is on my retirement savings. Of course that would be true whether or not I lived in New York City, but with the future so uncertain, I have to worry about staying where the cost of living is so high. As long as Parkinson's doesn't impair me to the point where I can't continue to live independently, I feel reasonably secure. But something like assisted living would be frightfully expensive in this area.
ReplyDeleteThank goodness Trump moved to Florida, but now that Mayor Adams is one of his minions, his malign influence is still felt here. (Someone I follow on TikTok refers to Trump as the Florida Orange.) I don't have any position on congestion pricing, but I do resent Trump interfering. Is there nothing he won't try to control? (Like Columbia University.)
When it came to Democrat vs. Republican (or liberal vs. conservative) politics, I like to think I always made at least some effort to understand and respect both sides, although I always identified as a liberal Democrat. But conservatives aren't conservative any more, and I basically consider Republicans to be evil. It's interesting to me that most of the people (e.g., columnists) I used to read to get the Republican/conservative perspective now loath Trumpism as much as I do. In the pre-Trump era, I used to read Jennifer Rubin when I wanted to get angry. Now I consider her and many others (George Will, David Brooks, Bill Kristol, Brett Stevens, David Frum) to be on the right side.
David, do you ever check out The Bulwark? Some of the people you mentioned are over there now. Jennifer Rubin quit the Washington Post, I don't know where she is writing now.
DeleteSome people are so unwilling to break with the Republican brand (which is, as you say, not conservative anymore). It's almost like a religion to them. But it doesn't make sense to stay with a brand whose product has deteriorated so badly.
Yes - the Never Trump conservatives no longer have a home.
DeleteOur retirement funds have taken a huge hit. But, barring a prolonged, multi- year recession ( a real risk) or global depression, (a more remote risk but still too high a risk) we should be ok. Our personal approach for the last few months has been to reduce our horrific caregiver costs. As I grew stronger emotionally after getting home - less fearful, anxious and depressed- I have been able to take on some caregiving tasks that I couldn’t do previously. So we have gone from 16 hours/ day, 7 days/ week before Christmas to 8 hours/ day, 5 days/ week. This has cut our total monthly costs dramatically. I’m hoping to cut to 3-4 hours, 3 days/week by August. I need now to focus on rebuilding my physical strength and stamina though. Everyone’s situation is different, but all will be impacted in different ways.
Jean, in reading your comments about where you live in Michigan, I have the sense that you are only one- two hours from Canada. But I don’t know that region well. If I’m right though, Perhaps your prescriptions could be filled there - 90 days worth at a time so four trips/year? Doesn’t help with the infusions, but maybe with the pills? I have read that before Biden forced a cost cut for insulin that many Americans drove to Canada every few months to get it.
It’s just one more symptom of how horrible our healthcare system is these days.
David, my husband’s sister has just moved into “ respite care” at an assisted living place on 56th St. ( I don’t know NYC geography). Her 375 sq ft studio is $15,000/ month. She didn’t want to, and still has her apartment, but she can’t function independently right now.
DeleteBut all meals are included. ;).
My insurance will not pay for pills in Canada, and it is actually illegal to get meds over there and bring them back to the States. Customs routinely looked the other way for many years when elderly people did this, but with Trump jabbering about mules bringing in fentanyl, things have changed. My friends over there also tell me good luck finding a pharmacy that will take your American scrip. Canadians aren't feeling real generous towards Americans these days. So nice try, but I am not going waste gas money on a 4-hour round trip to Sarnia, get busted in Port Huron, and then lose the meds, the money they cost, and a big contraband fine.
DeleteOne benefit of being old and having read a lot of books is that you realize Trump is just the latest iteration of a stock figure in American politics and fiction--Willie Stark, Huey Long, Richard Daly, Elmer Gantry, George Wallace, Foghorn Leghorn, Boss Tweed. Loud, gluttonous, vain, ignorant, mendacious, horny jackasses have always been part of our scene. Every once in a while one of them gets elected and deposits a steaming pile of horrors on the table before his cholesterol levels catch up with him.
ReplyDeleteThose worried about their investment portfolios should be cheered to know that Trump's approval ratings on the economy are in the tank, according to polls in the last couple of days. Rich people and economists are remonstrating with him. My guess is that he'll claim some kind of bogus victory, and everybody's money will be saved.
Polls also indicate that a lot of people have misgivings about Trump's immigrant policies, but that's unlikely to translate to action. Like my neighbor told me yesterday, "Yah, a lot of these deportation stories are sad, but them people shouldn'a been here to begin with."
Federal jobs, safety nets, affordable health care, wage disparity, and environmental regulations--Americans have never much cared about that stuff.
Katherine’s comment that it appears to be a slow moving train wreck is on target.
ReplyDeleteThere are long lags in the global trade and economic system, so it can take a while before people begin to feel the fallout of bad economic policies. The tariff war started what one commentator called a potential “ tsunami”.
Will trump extend his “pause” and listen to wiser trade experts than Navarro? If so, he can save face and maybe minimize damage to the economy. But, as Jean notes, he will have to find a way to declare victory.
Right after tariff announcement day (labeled by trump with the laughable name “liberation day”) the initial reaction in global trade data could be seen in the numbers related to shipping contracts ( and port activity and trucking contracts). Interesting data and graphics at the website.
https://www.vizionapi.com/blog/tariff-shockwave-us-import-bookings-collapse-after-q1-
“What the Data Tells Us
The message is clear: Shippers moved early to get ahead of tariffs, and then hit the brakes as conditions changed. This behavior, visible in booking data weeks before it shows up at the port, shows just how critical forward-looking logistics intelligence has become.
With tariffs from other trade partners currently on a 90-day pause, shippers are navigating a highly uncertain and fast-changing trade environment. The rest of 2025 is likely to bring continued volatility marked by demand swings, accelerated ordering patterns, and a re-evaluation of sourcing strategies the global response to these trade actions continues to unfold”
Correction
Deletehttps://www.vizionapi.com/blog/tariff-shockwave-us-import-bookings-collapse-after-q1-surge
Interesting story about MAGA Catholics and the coming conclave. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/28/maga-catholics-vatican-pope-conclave
ReplyDeleteI started reading the article, then stopped. Right now I simply can’t deal with more bad news, whether from right wing extremist Americans or right- wing extremist Catholics who contributed to electing the horrible man in the White House who is busy destroying our freedoms and our Constitution. If the white Catholics who voted for trump had simply followed the popes example and philosophy they couldn’t have voted for that man. But the Catholic clergy especially, led them down the path to choosing an evil person to run the most powerful country on earth - not just hurting America and Americans but threatening the well being of everyone else on this planet.
ReplyDeleteThe reporting seemed fairly dispassionate and measured. Thought it was interesting that some traditionalist Catholics believe that Catholics will soon outnumber Anglicans in England.
DeleteRaber has grown increasingly frustrated with trad-MAGAs in the local parish. I've offered to go with him to Mass in the next town over, which tends to be a little broader cuz most of their trad-MAGAs migrated over here when the current priest came in.
The Catholic ranks in England were added to by the many immigrants from Eastern Europe, primarily Poland , during the decades when Anglicans were “ falling away”. That source of growth may have stopped now that the UK is no longer in the EU. Immigration from Latin America kept Catholic numbers up in the US, even as millions of euro-descended cradle Catholics disappeared from the pews. Benedict’s efforts to lure Anglicans unhappy with having women in the priesthood by creating the Ordinariate pretty much fizzled after the first year. He allowed married Anglican priests to be RC priests immediately and let them keep their own liturgy. Most members of the Ordinariate in England today joined up the first year. Don’t know if their kids have stayed. It didn’t boost Catholic numbers a whole lot. The immigrants did.
DeleteThose who opposed Francis probably have little chance of seeing a "course correction" Pope elected. I think many of them will end up trying to get a centrist Pope elected, for example Secretary of State Parolin whose agenda would likely be to keep Francis's legacy on the peace making, the environment, and immigration while trying to unify the church by delaying any further consideration of women deacon's and married priests. They are making the argument that we need less division within the church in order to be more united in our mission in the world.
ReplyDeleteCardinal Re who presided over the funeral gave the homily that everyone expected of him, a complete endorsement of Pope Francis without any hints of deviation in any direction. Re was head of the congregation of bishops under JP2 and B16. In other words, he was involved in the selection of almost all the bishops before Francis, including Francis as first auxiliary, then coadjutor and finally Archbishop. Francis purposefully kept Re on as dean when his term expired, explaining that he felt Re would keep the old guard of retired cardinals in line whereas if Francis had chosen one of his own, they might have put up more resistance to change.
Our own bishop of Cleveland held a Mass today for Pope Francis. In his homily he said that he was a JP2 priest, i.e. had been inspired and ordained during his pontificate. However, he affirmed that he is a Pope Francis bishop, appointed first by him to Greensburg in Pa, then to Cleveland. He confessed he hasn't the slightly idea of why the Pope choose him for either position, but he knows that Francis has powerfully changed his life.
I suspect there are a lot of cardinals, and bishops around the world who are in the same position as our bishop. Whatever they started out, they have simply been changed by the Pope. Most of them are probably willing to be reshaped by the next Pope, but I suspect most of them want to keep on going in the direction that they have been going and want a Pope of continuity.
One of the best changes under Francis, especially for clergy, religious sisters and theologians, is the freedom to think, speak and write without the need to look over one's shoulder for fear of the doctrinal police. The church had "cancel culture" for years before it became mainstream in the United States. For bishops who came up under JP II and Ratzinger, I think Francis's pontificate expanded the horizon of what is possible. I would hope a majority of the electors don't want to bring back those bad old days and see that horizon contracted again.
DeleteSomeone getting a piece of treated lumber in Home Depot heard from one of the workers that there’s no lumber coming in due to no lumber from Canada.
ReplyDeleteHmm. Guess if I want any peat moss, I had better check Home Depot soon. Most of that comes from Canada. Last time we had supply problems doing the pandemic, peat moss was hard to get.
DeleteA lumber shortage will not help the US construction trades. Half our paper products come from Canada, so watch for another run on toilet paper while it's still cheap. Thank heavens Trump signed that EO on water pressure so all those bidets everybody bought during COVID will work good. Carney's victory was pretty much a "F$@#! You, Trump" referendum, so don't look for Canada to play nice or knuckle under.
DeleteTrump has plans to open about 50% of government owned forest land to logging. Just as he plans to open parkland to oil drilling. We watched an interesting documentary on PBS about Teddy Roosevelt - an interesting and comp,I aged man. He did a whole lot to set up national parks to preserve American’s landscapes and natural beauty. Trump cares nothing for nature - only ostentatious buildings, homes and lots of gilt.
DeleteTrump apparently thinks that tariffs will kill off foreign competition and "repatriate" industry here, ushering in an age of jobs jobs jobs and wealth for all. What can't seep through the Aquanet holding up his golden-dyed pompadour is that US manufacturers are not going to suddenly invest millions in processing plants until they feel sure there will be a good long-term profit prospect. And with Trump's policy ideas tanking in public opinion and his chances for a third term nearly nil, they're more inclined to deal with the chaos until the next five years looks clearer. Trying to educate him on the evils of deforestation, strip mining, chemical deregulation, etc would be about as useful as talking to a bag of cement.
DeleteHis anti- immigration policies won’t help the construction industry either. At least in our part of the country, it seems that at least 75% of the doing the labor building homes are from south of the border.
DeleteAll the roofing crews that came thru here after the hail storm were migrants. Hard workers, plus I liked their music. The big dairy farm north of us hires mostly migrant labor. Last summer we noticed the strawberry farm still had migrants. I never hear about ICE raiding businesses, tho.
Delete